17327 Thor Well Ln · Crosby, TX 77532

$269,480

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,924 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 5,414 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the perfect combination of style and functionality with the Chatfield floor plan by Centex Homes, located in the inviting Crosby Farms community. This home showcases the classic exterior color packages, complemented by a fresh and modern interior palette, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. Designed for convenience and comfort, this home includes blinds, full sod, a garage door opener, front gutters, and a covered patio perfect for outdoor relaxation. The open-concept design is ideal for both entertaining and everyday living, offering a seamless flow throughout the home. Located just minutes from local dining, shopping, and highly rated schools, this home provides small-tow

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Highly rated schools
• Covered patio

Tags

• CROSBY FARMS COMMUNITY
• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS

🏗️ New construction. The $269,480 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $265,512.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-923/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1188 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $229,366 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,512
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17327 Thor Well Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,924 (0%)	1mo	$269,480	$140	99
17406 Adina Creek Ct	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,922 (-0%)	1mo	$249,990	$130	99
418 Point Nemo St	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,945 (+1%)	2mo	$264,090	$136	92
17202 Boulder Beach Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-8%)	1mo	$244,010	$137	83
17410 Adina Creek Ct	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,716 (-11%)	1mo	$236,990	$138	80
17414 Adina Creek Ct	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-13%)	1mo	$227,190	$136	77
17314 Glacier Forest Ln	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-13%)	1mo	$212,890	$127	77
17818 Cliff Tide Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,831 (-5%)	1mo	$299,990	$164	67
426 N Compass Rose Cir	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,872 (-3%)	2mo	$154,900	$83	66
17818 Abaft Ct	0.69mi	4/2.5	1,820 (-5%)	1mo	$284,990	$157	56
17814 Cliff Tide Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,692 (-12%)	1mo	$287,990	$170	55
17131 Dorsal Way	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (-12%)	2mo	$250,000	$147	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-51,310
• Equity at exit: $39,589

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-64,465
• Equity at exit: $22,957

Cash invested: $74,343 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1188
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,294 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,392
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$332 /mo · $3,983/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,391

Max offer price $254,384

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $15	+0% $-77	+5% $-169	+10% $-260
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-168	+0% $-77	+5% $14	+10% $104
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $-9	base $-77	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,378
• Closing costs: $7,965
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
430 Fishhawk Way Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,783	$1.30	0d	1	0.56mi
711 Equinox St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,881	$1.04	45d	1	1.03mi
6006 Lovage Ave Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2261	$2,055	$0.91	22d	1	1.13mi
16807 Lisbon Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	2196	$1,910	$0.87	45d	1	1.17mi
1310 Stem Way Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.0	2346	$2,700	$1.15	4d	1	1.27mi
16318 River Wood Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,946	$1.16	3d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $269,480 Active
3. 2026-03-20
   historical
4. 2026-02-25
   price $279,870
5. 2026-01-14
   price $294,370
6. 2025-11-14
   listed $313,570 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,873
• − Property taxes: −$3,983
• − Insurance: −$1,328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,202
• − Management: −$2,202
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,304
• After-tax cash flow: $382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers.
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers.
• Both Install smart locks — Smart locks can improve security and convenience for both tenants and buyers.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for tenants and buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Smart locks can improve security and convenience for both tenants and buyers. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for tenants and buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $269,480 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $279,870 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $294,370 HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $313,570 HARMLS