7081 Lone Oak Blvd · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$440,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1997 4,356 sqft lot $340/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This the the one you have been waiting for. Brand new floors, freshly painted, in marvelous condition, prime location and priced to sell. Turn from Airport Pulling Road and slowly drive into Walden Oaks, see the huge lake on your left, followed by the resort style Community Pool and the tennis courts / pickleball courts. Enjoy the beautifully landscaped neighborhood and feel at home from the very first moment. Walden Oaks is a real gem, an oasis of tranquility and style. The attached villa that is offered here is conveniently located in the North East corner of the community with a view to a lake and a lot of privacy on the covered and screened patio. All new laminate, new painted walls and garage floor come with modern appliances in the white kitchen with a bar toward living area. There is also a breakfast area accessible from the kitchen which grants enough space for dining and entertaining. Three bedrooms and two bathrooms complete the gorgeous villa, that you will love from the very beginning. Low HOA fees and the perfect location in Naples will finally convince you to make an offer and secure this gem for you. But don't wait too long, this will not stay on the market for long.

Key facts

• Natural light
• New water heater
• High ceilings

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• NEW ROOF
• ACCORDION HURRICANE SHUTTERS
• NEW WATER HEATER
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Units in building: 2 (this is an end-unit); Units in complex: 86; Lot roughly 0.10 acres with regular shape; lake frontage noted; Irrigation: central
• Financial info: Not indicated: investor-specific income/expense details
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $415 quarterly; Master HOA fee $605 quarterly; Total annual recurring fees $4,080; Total one-time fees $1,650; Professional management; HOA maintenance covers cable, lawn/land maintenance, exterior pest control, reserves, street lights, and street maintenance; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool, community spa/hot tub, tennis court, bike/jog path, BBQ/picnic area, sidewalks, streetlights, underground utilities, internet access, community room

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Manual storm shutters; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential villa attached (end-unit duplex); 1 story; Rear exposure to the east; Located in the Walden Oaks / Walden Shores development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Built in 1997; Foundations and structural details not specified
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Sliding windows; Manual shutters; Lake view and landscaped view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Split-bedroom floor plan; Turnkey furnished; Breakfast bar and eat-in kitchen; Guest room and guest bath; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $440k).
• Recommended offer: $414k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,849/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $123k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $285k; list at $440k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $413,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.19%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $30,410
• Equity at exit: $134,289

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $113,022
• Equity at exit: $166,726

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,849 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,143/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$340
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,018
• Net cashflow: $738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,915

Max offer price $440,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3035 Horizon Ln #2206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$6,000	$4.82	23d	1	0.13mi
7030 Lone Oak Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$6,400	$3.76	14d	1	0.15mi
3051 Horizon Ln #1803 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$5,100	$3.44	23d	1	0.20mi
2880 Citrus Lake Dr Unit Q201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,495	$1.57	14d	1	0.21mi
3048 Horizon Ln #1104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$5,150	$2.83	23d	1	0.22mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R-202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	14d	1	0.22mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	23d	1	0.22mi
3015 Horizon Ln #2702 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,790	$1.28	23d	1	0.22mi
3009 Driftwood Way #2802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,000	$1.43	23d	1	0.28mi
3017 Driftwood Way #3001 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$5,000	$3.61	23d	1	0.31mi
2731 Citrus Lake Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$2,500	$1.98	14d	1	0.32mi
2885 Citrus Lake Dr Unit N103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1249	$5,250	$4.20	14d	1	0.34mi
3057 Driftwood Way #4004 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$6,400	$3.52	23d	1	0.34mi
3062 Driftwood Way #4301 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1573	$6,500	$4.13	23d	1	0.34mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F305 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$5,500	$3.72	14d	1	0.35mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$4,500	$3.54	14d	1	0.35mi
3025 Driftwood Way #3203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$3,900	$3.12	23d	1	0.36mi
3029 Driftwood Way #3303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$4,000	$3.21	23d	1	0.38mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$5,250	$3.80	14d	1	0.38mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$3,500	$2.54	14d	1	0.38mi
3049 Driftwood Way #3806 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$4,700	$2.59	23d	1	0.39mi
2651 Citrus Lake Dr Unit D302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$5,000	$4.00	14d	1	0.41mi
2864 Mizzen Way Unit Y106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,200	$3.85	14d	1	0.41mi
6654 Tannin Ln Unit B Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1441	$3,100	$2.15	23d	1	0.42mi
3037 Driftwood Way #3505 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.42mi
2611 Citrus Lake Dr Unit C-203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$5,500	$3.22	14d	1	0.44mi
2730 Sailors Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1700	$9,000	$5.29	23d	1	0.45mi
13466 Sumter Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$8,700	$4.74	23d	1	0.49mi
7710 Ahoy Ave Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,950	$1.87	23d	1	0.50mi
2835 Mizzen Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,900	$1.77	23d	1	0.50mi
2541 Citrus Lake Dr Unit A-205 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,250	$3.30	14d	1	0.51mi
13441 Coronado Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$10,000	$5.44	23d	1	0.53mi
13435 Silktail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1837	$8,950	$4.87	23d	1	0.57mi
13423 Silktail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1831	$2,200	$1.20	23d	1	0.58mi
2608 Sailors Way #122 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1387	$5,500	$3.97	23d	1	0.59mi
7416 Plumbago Bridge Rd #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1223	$2,400	$1.96	14d	1	0.60mi
2516 Orchid Bay Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$4,750	$3.49	23d	1	0.62mi
13379 Silktail Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$4,400	$2.40	23d	1	0.62mi
3664 El Segundo Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1680	$5,500	$3.27	23d	1	0.66mi
3687 El Segundo Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1680	$5,000	$2.98	23d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $340 · $4,080/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $440,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $440,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $440,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $440,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $440,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $440,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $440,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $440,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $440,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $440,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $450,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $450,000
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $459,999 Active
17. 2020-12-29
    soldstatus $285,000
18. 2020-12-28
    soldstatus $285,000 Sold 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    This the the one you have been waiting for. Brand new floors, freshly painted, in marvelous condition, prime location and priced to sell. Turn from Airport Pulling Road and slowly drive into Walden Oaks, see the huge lake on your left, followed by the resort style Community Pool and the tennis courts / pickleball courts. Enjoy the beautifully landscaped neighborhood and feel at home from the very first moment. Walden Oaks is a real gem, an oasis of tranquility and style. The attached villa that is offered here is conveniently located in the North East corner of the community with a view to a lake and a lot of privacy on the covered and screened patio. All new laminate, new painted walls and garage floor come with modern appliances in the white kitchen with a bar toward living area. There is also a breakfast area accessible from the kitchen which grants enough space for dining and entertaining. Three bedrooms and two bathrooms complete the gorgeous villa, that you will love from the very beginning. Low HOA fees and the perfect location in Naples will finally convince you to make an offer and secure this gem for you. But don't wait too long, this will not stay on the market for long.

19. 2020-11-22
    status Pending With Contingencies 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    This the the one you have been waiting for. Brand new floors, freshly painted, in marvelous condition, prime location and priced to sell. Turn from Airport Pulling Road and slowly drive into Walden Oaks, see the huge lake on your left, followed by the resort style Community Pool and the tennis courts / pickleball courts. Enjoy the beautifully landscaped neighborhood and feel at home from the very first moment. Walden Oaks is a real gem, an oasis of tranquility and style. The attached villa that is offered here is conveniently located in the North East corner of the community with a view to a lake and a lot of privacy on the covered and screened patio. All new laminate, new painted walls and garage floor come with modern appliances in the white kitchen with a bar toward living area. There is also a breakfast area accessible from the kitchen which grants enough space for dining and entertaining. Three bedrooms and two bathrooms complete the gorgeous villa, that you will love from the very beginning. Low HOA fees and the perfect location in Naples will finally convince you to make an offer and secure this gem for you. But don't wait too long, this will not stay on the market for long.

20. 2020-11-11
    listed $295,000 Active 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    This the the one you have been waiting for. Brand new floors, freshly painted, in marvelous condition, prime location and priced to sell. Turn from Airport Pulling Road and slowly drive into Walden Oaks, see the huge lake on your left, followed by the resort style Community Pool and the tennis courts / pickleball courts. Enjoy the beautifully landscaped neighborhood and feel at home from the very first moment. Walden Oaks is a real gem, an oasis of tranquility and style. The attached villa that is offered here is conveniently located in the North East corner of the community with a view to a lake and a lot of privacy on the covered and screened patio. All new laminate, new painted walls and garage floor come with modern appliances in the white kitchen with a bar toward living area. There is also a breakfast area accessible from the kitchen which grants enough space for dining and entertaining. Three bedrooms and two bathrooms complete the gorgeous villa, that you will love from the very beginning. Low HOA fees and the perfect location in Naples will finally convince you to make an offer and secure this gem for you. But don't wait too long, this will not stay on the market for long.

21. 2020-06-08
    historical
22. 2020-03-01
    listed $279,900 Active
23. 2020-02-21
    historical
24. 2020-02-19
    price $279,900
25. 2019-12-26
    price $299,000
26. 2019-12-07
    price $310,000
27. 2019-11-27
    price $320,000
28. 2019-10-09
    listed $330,000 Active
29. 1999-05-06
    soldstatus $144,300
30. 1997-10-22
    soldstatus $134,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,143 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,652 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$509/yr (+$42/mo · 16.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$3,143
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,655
• − Management: −$4,655
• − HOA: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable income: $2,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$481
• After-tax cash flow: $8,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+235.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $450,000 BEARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $459,999 BEARMLS
• 2020-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-28 Sold (MLS) $285,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2020-11-22 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2020-11-11 Listed $295,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2020-06-08 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2020-03-01 Listed $279,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2020-02-21 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2020-02-19 Price Changed $279,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-12-26 Price Changed $299,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-12-07 Price Changed $310,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-11-27 Price Changed $320,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-10-09 Listed $330,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1999-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $144,300 Public Records
• 1997-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,143 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.