3536 Hilts Trl · New Braunfels, TX 78112

$221,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $158/sqft · at area comps Est $213k · at est. $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Kitson- An inviting open-concept floorplan serves as the heart of this single-level home, providing for seamless transitions between the kitchen, dining area and family room. A restful owner's suite is located at the back of home, featuring a comfortable bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the entry. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-367 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,591 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.07%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,499
• List price: $221,999
• Delta: 3.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3536 Hilts Trl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$221,999	$158	99
3525 Hilts Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$201,999	$144	98
3529 Hilts Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$205,999	$147	97
3514 Hilts Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$200,999	$143	97
3513 Hilts Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	2mo	$217,999	$155	96
3522 Hilts Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-10%)	1mo	$189,999	$150	81
3528 Hilts Trl	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$212,999	$133	70
3518 Hilts Trl	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$213,999	$134	69
3506 Hilts Trl	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$209,999	$131	68
1889 Stonechat	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+5%)	1mo	$209,999	$142	62
1869 Stonechat	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+5%)	1mo	$216,999	$147	60
1881 Stonechat	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-10%)	1mo	$208,999	$166	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-21,581
• Equity at exit: $62,634

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-8,682
• Equity at exit: $73,846

Cash invested: $62,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78112

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$277 /mo · $3,330/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,983

Max offer price $191,522

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,500
• Closing costs: $6,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3514 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	17d	1	0.02mi
3307 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	14d	1	0.14mi
3230 Mound Rdg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,595	$1.14	43d	1	0.24mi
901 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	2.0–4.0	1.5–3.5	1525	$1,847	$1.21	1d	131	0.29mi
1490 W Klein Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	43d	1	0.29mi
907 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1785	$1,775	$0.99	23d	1	0.30mi
905 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,795	$1.23	43d	1	0.30mi
2924 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,925	$1.15	23d	1	0.31mi
1211 Foxglove St New Braunfels, TX	2.0	1.0	1329	$1,525	$1.15	23d	1	0.32mi
2915 Whinchat Unit N/A Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,850	$1.93	1d	1	0.33mi
2935 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,700	$1.03	4d	1	0.35mi
957 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,685	$1.15	23d	1	0.38mi
1422 Copperleaf Ct New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,795	$1.24	43d	1	0.38mi
2808 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	14d	1	0.40mi
2864 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	43d	1	0.40mi
2737 Green Finch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	14d	1	0.42mi
2766 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1874	$1,795	$0.96	16d	1	0.42mi
2815 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,725	$1.05	4d	1	0.42mi
1941 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,500	$1.23	10d	1	0.53mi
283 Rolling Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	43d	1	0.60mi
1881 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,595	$1.27	4d	1	0.63mi
1201 Legend Pass New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,650	$1.34	43d	1	0.69mi
1837 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,575	$1.07	43d	1	0.72mi
4044 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,850	$1.15	4d	1	0.74mi
1906 Fieldfare New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,775	$1.22	23d	1	0.76mi
2764 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 2764 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	43d	1	0.77mi
2754 Farm to Market Road 1044 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	17d	1	0.79mi
2754 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 2754 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	43d	1	0.79mi
2744 Farm to Market Road 1044 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	12d	1	0.81mi
1915 Chiffchaff New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,650	$1.36	23d	1	0.82mi
4211 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,800	$1.14	43d	1	0.85mi
2701 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 22 New Braunfels, TX	2.0	1.5	1301	$1,429	$1.10	20d	1	0.85mi
1973 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,750	$1.20	16d	1	0.86mi
2700 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 3-3x New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1490	$1,611	$1.08	4d	1	0.88mi
2700 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 4x New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.5	1776	$1,780	$1.00	4d	1	0.88mi
1972 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,795	$1.15	43d	1	0.89mi
3931 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,861	$1.10	43d	1	0.89mi
4238 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,795	$1.07	43d	1	0.90mi
108 Bass Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1770	$1,999	$1.13	1d	1	0.93mi
2564 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,320	$0.96	4d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   The Kitson- An inviting open-concept floorplan serves as the heart of this single-level home, providing for seamless transitions between the kitchen, dining area and family room. A restful owner's suite is located at the back of home, featuring a comfortable bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the entry. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $221,999 New 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   The Kitson- An inviting open-concept floorplan serves as the heart of this single-level home, providing for seamless transitions between the kitchen, dining area and family room. A restful owner's suite is located at the back of home, featuring a comfortable bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the entry. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,435
• − Property taxes: −$3,330
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$6,458
• Taxable loss: −$6,421
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 144,962
• Population (ZIP): 9,959

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 39% White 24% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 276.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-17 Listed $221,999 LERA