304 Leeland Dr · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

$336,745

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,801 sqft · Other · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 4,356 sqft lot $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW CONSTRUCTION BY ASHTON WOODS! Available August 2026! BRAND NEW ASHTON WOODS HOME! Connections are made in the Robin, with its gourmet kitchen that opens onto a relaxed dining area and family room where everyone gathers, then retreats to their own private spaces throughout this two-story home. The kitchen features a center island, designer finishes including Rich Dark Cabinets, Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring in the Entry, Kitchen, Dining Area, Family Room, Designer Backsplash and Built-in Stainless Steel Appliances. Don't miss the opportunity to call Lariat home.

Key facts

• Designer finishes
• Gourmet kitchen
• Designer backsplash

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• DESIGNER FINISHES
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• DESIGNER BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Lariat) with $70 monthly fee covering common area maintenance; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground, park, sport courts, trails/paths, and common grounds

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (rear-facing); 2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer via Municipal Utility District; Natural gas available; Electricity available; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Two-story home; New construction by Ashton Woods; Faces west; Slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank siding with masonry and stone veneer accents; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch and patio; Outdoor grill; In-wall pest control system; Fenced back yard with wood privacy fencing; Automatic sprinklers (front, side, rear); Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Built-in oven; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Upper-level bedroom(s) with walk-in closet(s) and double vanity/attached bath features
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Bathrooms include double vanity and separate shower (where applicable)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan with multiple living areas; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Wired for data; Quartz counters; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $337k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Liberty Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $262,727 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-68,361
• Equity at exit: $50,210

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-97,287
• Equity at exit: $29,116

Cash invested: $94,289 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1496
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,766
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,329/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,747

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,186
• Closing costs: $10,102
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 McCrae Dr Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2453	$2,900	$1.18	11d	1	0.21mi
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1745	$2,350	$1.35	16d	1	0.34mi
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	3.0	1745	$2,350	$1.35	4d	1	0.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $336,745 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $336,745 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $336,745 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $346,745 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $346,745 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 569-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $346,745 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,329 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,162 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,833/yr (+$319/mo · 164.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,863
• − Property taxes: −$2,329
• − Insurance: −$1,684
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,522
• − Management: −$2,522
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$9,796
• Taxable loss: −$7,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,687
• After-tax cash flow: $550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 220.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $346,745 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,329 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.