8316 W Martin Cavazos Ave N · Monte Alto, TX 78538

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 1988 7,765 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

House is located in the city of Monte Alto. The area is very quiet. The city has an Elementary school, Middle school and a fairly new high school.

Key facts

• City of monte alto
• Middle school
• Elementary school

Tags

• CITY OF MONTE ALTO
• ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
• MIDDLE SCHOOL
• HIGH SCHOOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,072 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Monte Alto ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #777 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roberto Garate El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 384 students, 92% FRL); Jose Borrego Middle (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,360 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 186 students, 90% FRL); Monte Alto H S (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,591 of 1,632 statewide, top 98%, 295 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.39%
• DSCR: 3.42
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,379
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8219 Mateo Escobar St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-1%)	6mo	$160,000	$139	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $60,399
• Equity at exit: $37,318

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.37×
• Total profit: $145,240
• Equity at exit: $73,447

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78538

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $669	-5% $652	+0% $635	+5% $617	+10% $600
Rent	-10% $536	-5% $586	+0% $635	+5% $684	+10% $733
Rate	-1.0pp $660	-0.5pp $647	base $635	+0.5pp $622	+1.0pp $608

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-02-13
   status Pending
2. 2024-11-22
   listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $7,250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,740
• After-tax cash flow: $5,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monte Alto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831230
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,135
• Composite: 17.38/100
• National rank: #9069
• State rank: #777 of 826 in TX

Livability — Monte Alto

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1072
• US rank: #19024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Monte Alto, TX
• City population: 10,740
• Population (ZIP): 10,740

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 98% Two or more races 58% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 96%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 9% English-only · Spanish 90% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.80%
• Current HPI: 244.519
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-13 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-11-22 Listed $50,000 MCALLENMLS