1731 Avenida Pastor · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$290,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2019 0.43 ac lot $185/sqft · 6% below area Est $308k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newer construction home (2019) with 1,568 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and solar for energy efficiency and reduced energy bills. Features include, high ceilings, modern kitchen, large primary suite, smart home thermostat, EV charger, water softener system, and hanging garage storage racks. This home is truly Move-In-Ready!! Ideal for first-time homebuyers, military buyers, retirees, or investment property opportunity.

Key facts

• Ev charger
• Modern kitchen
• 0.43 acre lot

Tags

• SOLAR FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SMART HOME THERMOSTAT
• EV CHARGER
• WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM
• HANGING GARAGE STORAGE RACKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-301 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Cayetano Elementary School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #810 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 393 students, 69% FRL); Coatimundi Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 473 students, 69% FRL); Rio Rico High School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 1,414 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $290k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,003 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,689
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -5.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
87 Avenida Pastor	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-0%)	6mo	$315,000	$202	90
1729 Faro Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,562 (-0%)	3mo	$320,000	$205	87
1731 Faro Ct	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+5%)	2mo	$330,000	$200	74
1739 Circulo Agua Blanca	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-6%)	15mo	$262,000	$178	74
1732 Faro Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,687 (+8%)	2mo	$288,000	$171	72
123 Avenida Pastor	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,626 (+4%)	5mo	$295,000	$181	63
1674 Calle Cabo	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,562 (-0%)	9mo	$335,000	$214	62
180 Via Agua Sarca	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,779 (+14%)	1mo	$360,000	$202	60
65a Avenida Pastor	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-10%)	9mo	$285,000	$203	56
119 Vereda Patria	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	15mo	$308,000	$196	53
1681 Trampa Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+3%)	11mo	$260,000	$161	51
1715 Nieve Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-14%)	14mo	$269,000	$200	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $138,662
• Equity at exit: $261,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $423,220
• Equity at exit: $563,406

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,831/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,271

Max offer price $236,805

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-137	-5% $-219	+0% $-301	+5% $-383	+10% $-465
Rent	-10% $-450	-5% $-376	+0% $-301	+5% $-226	+10% $-152
Rate	-1.0pp $-155	-0.5pp $-227	base $-301	+0.5pp $-376	+1.0pp $-453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1731 Avenida Pastor Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	3d	1	0.02mi
65 Avenida Pastor Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,200	$1.56	3d	1	0.39mi
1691 Gamo Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	16d	1	0.55mi
117 Vereda Patria Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,500	$1.60	3d	1	0.75mi
73 Vereda Patria Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1879	$1,750	$0.93	3d	1	0.78mi
1719 Camino Pacifico Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	45d	1	0.91mi
1719 Camino Pacifico Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	13d	1	0.91mi
125 Alemania Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,500	$1.12	12d	1	1.07mi
1808 Cajeme Ct Rio Rico, AZ	4.0	2.0	1725	$1,850	$1.07	3d	1	1.25mi
290 Via Mantaraya Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,800	$1.16	3d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-01
   price $290,000 424-char remark

   Show marketing remark (424 chars)

   Newer construction home (2019) with 1,568 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and solar for energy efficiency and reduced energy bills. Features include, high ceilings, modern kitchen, large primary suite, smart home thermostat, EV charger, water softener system, and hanging garage storage racks. This home is truly Move-In-Ready!! Ideal for first-time homebuyers, military buyers, retirees, or investment property opportunity.

2. 2026-03-23
   listed $295,000 Active 424-char remark

   Show marketing remark (424 chars)

   Newer construction home (2019) with 1,568 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and solar for energy efficiency and reduced energy bills. Features include, high ceilings, modern kitchen, large primary suite, smart home thermostat, EV charger, water softener system, and hanging garage storage racks. This home is truly Move-In-Ready!! Ideal for first-time homebuyers, military buyers, retirees, or investment property opportunity.

3. 2020-05-08
   soldstatus $169,900 91-char remark

   Show marketing remark (91 chars)

   Property under construction the picture is from another property built on a different area

4. 2019-10-15
   listed $169,900 91-char remark

   Show marketing remark (91 chars)

   Property under construction the picture is from another property built on a different area

5. 2005-08-19
   soldstatus $8,395

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,831 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,914 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$1,831
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$8,911
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,139
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3354.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $290,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-23 Listed $295,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-05-08 Sold (MLS) $169,900 MLSSAZ
• 2019-10-15 Listed $169,900 MLSSAZ
• 2005-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $8,395 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,831 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.