27211 Mockingbird Terrace Ln · Tomball, TX 77354

$319,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,409 sqft · Land · 22 Days on market

Built 2026 5,851 sqft lot $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home spans 2409 square feet and includes four bedrooms and 2 1/2 baths. The ground floor features the large dining/living room connected to the beautiful chef's kitchen with upgraded granite counters. The kitchen is also connected to the very spacious breakfast room and great room. A plan perfect for family gatherings! The master bedroom features a tub/shower combo with double vanity sinks and a huge walk-in closet, big enough for any shoe collection!! Upstairs offers a giant game room representing the heart of the 3 bedrooms surrounding it. No Back Neighbors!!! This home is an energy star builder home, which means it is designed to be energy efficient. Loaded with warranties

Key facts

• Giant game room
• Chef's kitchen
• 5,851 sq ft lot

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• UPGRADED GRANITE COUNTERS
• SPACIOUS BREAKFAST ROOM
• GIANT GAME ROOM
• ENERGY STAR BUILDER HOME
• LOADED WITH WARRANTIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership; New construction; Has additional parcels
• HOA & community: Community managed by Lead Association Management; Annual association fee of $450 (includes common areas); Community pool; Playground; Trails; Curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (built 2026); Faces east; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Back yard fencing; Subdivision lot setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Disposal; Instant hot water; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Energy-efficient HVAC features
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Hollywood bath; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with en-suite bath; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $291,731.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-54/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $82k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $225,319 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,731
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: 9.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $152,572
• Equity at exit: $262,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $438,569
• Equity at exit: $566,770

Cash invested: $81,685 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,530
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,141/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,259

Max offer price $290,936

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $78	+0% $-5	+5% $-87	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-94	+0% $-5	+5% $84	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $70	base $-5	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,933
• Closing costs: $8,752
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	4d	1	0.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $319,990 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,990 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,990 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,990 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,990 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,990 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,990 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,990 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $319,990 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,990 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,990 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,990 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $319,990 884-char remark
15. 2026-04-18
    listed $328,995 Active 884-char remark
16. 2026-04-18
    historical
17. 2026-03-14
    price $328,995
18. 2026-03-11
    listed $338,995 Active
19. 2026-03-11
    historical
20. 2026-03-05
    price $338,995
21. 2026-01-27
    listed $348,995 Active
22. 2026-01-27
    historical
23. 2026-01-16
    price $348,995
24. 2025-12-28
    price $333,995
25. 2025-12-18
    listed $332,495 Active
26. 2025-12-18
    historical
27. 2025-11-22
    price $332,495
28. 2025-11-11
    listed $330,495 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,141 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,856 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,715/yr (+$393/mo · 413.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,341
• − Property taxes: −$1,141
• − Insurance: −$1,459
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,163
• − Management: −$2,163
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,487
• Taxable loss: −$5,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,241
• After-tax cash flow: $1,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $319,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $319,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $328,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $328,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $338,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $338,995 HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $348,995 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $348,995 HARMLS
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $333,995 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $332,495 HARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $332,495 HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $330,495 HARMLS

Property tax history

-30.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,141 · -30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.