9 Clay St · Adams, NY 13605

$164,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,217 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1890 10,191 sqft lot Est $290k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great Village Home! This property was recently taken back in a forecloser and is priced to move. All the major appliances have been replaced in the last 5 years as has the roof. The home in vinyl siding so little to know maintenance on thge exterior. The property has giant rooms throughout the home and has a nice open floor plan. The attahed two car garage provides plenty of storage as well as a place to park your vehicles in the winter to keep them out of the weather. Conveninetly located near downtown Adams and only a mile from I-81 for quick access to Ft. Drum or Watertown. The onwer will give buyers $2500 cash at closing for repiars or moving expenses.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Vinyl siding
• Roof replaced

Tags

• MAJOR APPLIANCES REPLACED
• ROOF REPLACED
• VINYL SIDING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ATTACHED TWO CAR GARAGE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing (resale) property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Stone foundation; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 129 x 79

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Den; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#607 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• South Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #420 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $141k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,427
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10347 N Park St	0.57mi	3/2.0	2,047 (-8%)	20mo	$268,000	$131	42
16635 County Route 84	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,370 (+7%)	20mo	$227,000	$96	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $102,521
• Equity at exit: $148,555

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.33×
• Total profit: $292,129
• Equity at exit: $320,364

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13605

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,482/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,549

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9193 US Route 11 Adams, NY	3.0	1.0	1472	$1,800	$1.22	43d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $164,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 664-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $175,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,482 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,482 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$3,482
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$47
• After-tax cash flow: $2,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Jefferson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602340
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,872
• Composite: 41.27/100
• National rank: #3522
• State rank: #420 of 590 in NY

Livability — Adams

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #607
• US rank: #10970

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adams, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,106

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.95%
• Current HPI: 354.8216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+290.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $175,900 CNYIS
• 2022-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $140,600 Public Records
• 2019-12-09 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2019-04-20 Listed $119,900 CNYIS
• 2018-05-03 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-04-10 Listed $136,900 CNYIS
• 2016-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2014-01-06 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2013-09-02 Listed $130,000 CNYIS
• 2004-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,482 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.