10410 Red Cardinal Drive Dr · Cleveland, TX 77328

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · Land · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 5,500 sqft lot $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LGI Homes is excited to welcome you home to the Atticus floor plan at Pinewood Trails, where comfort and value come together beautifully. This inviting home is designed for real life, featuring an open-concept layout perfect for hosting friends or enjoying cozy nights in. The chef-ready kitchen includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and plenty of space to gather, flowing effortlessly into the spacious family room. A separate dining area makes everyday meals and special moments feel just right. At the end of the day, unwind in the private master retreat—your own peaceful escape with a large walk-in closet and a relaxing en-suite bath. With abundant storage, a two-car

Key facts

• Chef ready kitchen
• Large walk in closet
• 5,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• CHEF READY KITCHEN
• PRIVATE MASTER RETREAT
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET
• RELAXING EN SUITE BATH
• FIBER INTERNET ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $420; Community amenities include picnic area, playground, park, and trails; Curbs in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Slab foundation; Built in 2026; Composition roof; Concrete road access; Located in a subdivision
• Construction: Built by LGI Homes
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Private yard; Back yard fencing; Fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood planks; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub/shower combos
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling components; Attic fan
• Interior features: Granite counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low-E windows; Window coverings; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality; Energy-efficient lighting and HVAC components
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $209,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $238,511.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-975/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.6% in Cleveland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenleaf El (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 797 students, 70% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 35 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 12431% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $175,298 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,511
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -12.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-43,909
• Equity at exit: $35,563

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-45,246
• Equity at exit: $20,622

Cash invested: $66,783 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,753 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,251
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $971/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,856

Max offer price $224,158

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $-14	+0% $-81	+5% $-149	+10% $-216
Rent	-10% $-220	-5% $-150	+0% $-81	+5% $-12	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-21	base $-81	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,628
• Closing costs: $7,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10387 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,830	$1.70	45d	1	0.07mi
25365 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	45d	1	0.12mi
25382 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	0d	1	0.17mi
10519 Copper Ridge Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,625	$1.15	6d	1	0.18mi
25397 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	0d	1	0.18mi
10446 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,625	$1.15	0d	1	0.18mi
10462 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	26d	1	0.22mi
10474 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	26d	1	0.25mi
10506 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	26d	1	0.32mi
25507 Greenwood Canyon Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$1,875	$0.96	0d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on marketlisting id $209,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $1,640
16. 2026-05-11
    price $209,900 1013-char remark
17. 2026-05-02
    listed $1,840
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $229,900 Active 1013-char remark
19. 2026-04-30
    historical $1,840
20. 2026-04-29
    historical
21. 2026-04-25
    price $1,840
22. 2026-04-03
    listed $1,830
23. 2026-04-02
    historical $1,830
24. 2026-04-02
    listed $229,900 Active
25. 2026-04-01
    historical
26. 2026-03-14
    price $1,830
27. 2026-03-11
    listed $1,890
28. 2026-03-10
    status Active
29. 2026-03-04
    historical $1,830
30. 2026-03-04
    historical
31. 2026-02-21
    listed $1,830
32. 2026-02-20
    listed $229,900 Active
33. 2026-02-19
    historical $1,830
34. 2026-02-18
    historical
35. 2026-01-08
    listed $1,830
36. 2026-01-07
    historical $1,830
37. 2026-01-07
    listed $228,900 Active
38. 2026-01-06
    historical
39. 2025-12-07
    listed $1,830
40. 2025-12-05
    listed $228,900 Active
41. 2025-11-27
    historical $1,830
42. 2025-11-26
    historical
43. 2025-10-30
    price $1,830
44. 2025-10-29
    listed $228,900 Active
45. 2025-10-25
    historical
46. 2025-10-15
    listed $1,910
47. 2025-10-09
    historical $1,910
48. 2025-10-03
    status Active
49. 2025-10-03
    price $228,900
50. 2025-09-30
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $971 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,841 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,870/yr (+$239/mo · 295.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,360
• − Property taxes: −$971
• − Insurance: −$1,193
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,683
• − Management: −$1,683
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$6,939
• Taxable loss: −$5,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,251
• After-tax cash flow: $276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: San Jacinto County · 17,208 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 58.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

79 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed for Rent $1,675 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Rental Removed $1,640 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $1,640 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed for Rent $1,840 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Rental Removed $1,840 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $1,840 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed for Rent $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Rental Removed $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed for Rent $1,890 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Rental Removed $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed for Rent $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Rental Removed $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed for Rent $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Rental Removed $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-07 Listed for Rent $1,830 HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-27 Rental Removed $1,830 HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $1,830 HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed for Rent $1,910 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Rental Removed $1,910 HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $228,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-30 Listed for Rent $1,910 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Rental Removed $1,910 HARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $1,910 HARMLS
• 2025-07-26 Listed for Rent $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Rental Removed $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-06-28 Listed for Rent $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $231,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Rental Removed $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Listed for Rent $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $231,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Rental Removed $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listed for Rent $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $231,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Rental Removed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $231,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed for Rent $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $233,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Rental Removed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-02-27 Listed for Rent $2,030 HARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $233,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Listed $233,900 HARMLS
• 2025-01-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $233,900 HARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Listed $230,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $971 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.