1623 Estes St · Keokuk, IA 52632

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,167 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1900 3.68 ac lot Est $65k · 46% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property includes 5 parcels totaling 3.68 acres. The property is an estate and is selling AS-IS and what is on the property on the day of closing will remain and be the buyer's responsibility.

Key facts

• 3.68 acres
• Estate
• 5 parcels

Tags

• 5 PARCELS
• 3.68 ACRES
• ESTATE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($795 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 8.2% in Keokuk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#166 in IA, #3,002 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Keokuk Community School District (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #282 of 289 in IA (top 98%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hawthorne Elementary School (math 62% / reading 37%, grade D, #514 of 616 statewide, top 85%, 464 students, 68% FRL); Keokuk Middle School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D+, #230 of 246 statewide, top 93%, 377 students, 60% FRL); Keokuk High School (math 48% / reading 63%, grade C, #287 of 336 statewide, top 86%, 598 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $31,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.79%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,352
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1701 S 7th St	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,176 (+1%)	8mo	$15,000	$13	88
1320 Oak St	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,135 (-3%)	14mo	$14,200	$13	68
1717 S 7th St	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,148 (-2%)	20mo	$84,000	$73	68
923 S 14th St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,068 (-8%)	16mo	$76,500	$72	49
1428 Des Moines St	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,051 (-10%)	6mo	$48,000	$46	45
1728 J St	0.61mi	2/0.5	1,062 (-9%)	14mo	$60,000	$56	43
1423 Des Moines St	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,241 (+6%)	16mo	$25,000	$20	42
1817 Carroll Sts	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,134 (-3%)	22mo	$116,500	$103	37
613 Palean St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	997 (-15%)	22mo	$95,000	$95	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $17,133
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.53×
• Total profit: $44,366
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52632

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $868/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $342

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $367	+0% $358	+5% $348	+10% $338
Rent	-10% $295	-5% $326	+0% $358	+5% $389	+10% $420
Rate	-1.0pp $375	-0.5pp $366	base $358	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Richards Dr Unit 1-8 Keokuk, IA	2.0	1.0	725	$795	$1.10	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   price $35,000
3. 2025-12-10
   listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $868 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $868 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$868
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$763
• − Management: −$763
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $3,992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$958
• After-tax cash flow: $3,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keokuk Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1915630
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,973
• Composite: 42.35/100
• National rank: #3249
• State rank: #282 of 289 in IA

Livability — Keokuk

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #3002

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keokuk, IA
• Population (ZIP): 11,904

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,813 people
• By 2030: 32,835 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 30,690 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 28,777 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,568 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 21,983 · -35.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.0% · R 62.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: 16.0pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+16.1 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.80%
• Current HPI: 122.2866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — IAR
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $35,000 IAR
• 2025-12-10 Listed $45,000 IAR

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $868 · +52.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.