13393 Willow Oak Cir · Gulfport, MS 39503

$235,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2017 7,405 sqft lot Est $265k · 11% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to sell Move in ready 3 bed, two bath home. This home is made of concrete. Energy efficient. There is a camera system, surround system in the walls, in the ceiling speakers in the garage. Wifi thermostat. All Appliances stay. Close to shopping, entertainment, and hospital. Easy interstate access. Across the street is a small playground. No flood insurance needed. Make you appointment today.

Key facts

• Surround system
• Wifi thermostat
• Appliances stay

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT
• CAMERA SYSTEM
• SURROUND SYSTEM
• WIFI THERMOSTAT
• APPLIANCES STAY
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee ($180); Playground in the community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Concrete driveway/parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Move-in ready; Concrete construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Accessible features
• Construction: Concrete construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private backyard; Back yard wood fencing; City lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Flooring: See remarks
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Open floorplan; Pantry; Sound system; Wired for sound; Move-in ready
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Electric water heater; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-925/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $164k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,187 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13203 Willow Oak Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-2%)	7mo	$264,900	$160	79
13720 Hidden Oaks Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,788 (+6%)	3mo	$245,000	$137	64
14081 Sanctuary Trails Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,687 (+0%)	12mo	$242,000	$143	59
14028 Oak Arbor Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (-3%)	10mo	$272,000	$166	58
109 W Chipwood Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-1%)	9mo	$176,000	$106	56
13640 Hidden Oaks Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,507 (-10%)	12mo	$249,999	$166	56
14054 Plantation Oaks Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,903 (+13%)	6mo	$299,997	$158	52
14038 Oak Arbor Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-9%)	10mo	$267,012	$175	51
14229 Sanctuary Trails Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,687 (+0%)	11mo	$242,000	$143	50
13067 Tracewood Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (-2%)	5mo	$209,900	$128	49
14007 Plantation Oaks Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+8%)	11mo	$288,100	$158	49
13457 Mary Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,565 (-7%)	11mo	$222,000	$142	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-35,470
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,680
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 769
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,812 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,959/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,909

Max offer price $221,377

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $-11	+0% $-77	+5% $-144	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-220	-5% $-149	+0% $-77	+5% $-6	+10% $66
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-17	base $-77	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13444 Willow Oak Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.5	1679	$1,750	$1.04	44d	1	0.14mi
13145 Turtle Creek Pkwy Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.5	1679	$1,795	$1.07	44d	1	0.31mi
13070 Tracewood Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,400	$1.18	22d	1	0.64mi
13463 Mary Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,775	$1.13	44d	1	0.72mi
13469 Mary Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,800	$1.15	44d	1	0.72mi
14179 Debra Barbee Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,849	$1.34	22d	1	0.74mi
13498 Dee Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,750	$1.24	44d	1	0.96mi
13518 Huntington Cir Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	2084	$1,950	$0.94	44d	1	1.04mi
13727 Fox Hill Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,800	$1.30	44d	1	1.06mi
12450 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,295	$1.18	44d	1	1.09mi
14160 Maple Ct Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1950	$1,895	$0.97	44d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: internet

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-29
    listed $235,000 Active
16. 2017-06-12
    soldstatus $164,122

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,959 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,959 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,959
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,212
• After-tax cash flow: $287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+43.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $235,000 MLSU
• 2017-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $164,122 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,959 · +24.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.