3180 E Buffalo Ln · Hernando, FL 34442

$50,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 973 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1965 6,000 sqft lot ↓ 60% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ready for IMMEDIATE CLOSING! Keep the home, or tear it down and build a new one! This is truly a unique home. From the outside, it's hard to tell, but this is a single wide mobile home with multiple additions! Approaching the home, you'll notice the secure wood fence surrounding the entire perimeter (and the lot is . 14 acres). There is room behind the home to park multiple RV's or to be used as storage, as well as a dog kennel that would also be great as a chicken coop! The property appraiser lists the home as a 1 bedroom / 1 bathroom home, but when you step inside you will see that the options on how to set the home up are truly endless, and you could easily make it a 4 bedroom home if th

Key facts

• Room to park rvs
• Secure wood fence
• Multiple additions

Tags

• SECURE WOOD FENCE
• MULTIPLE ADDITIONS
• ROOM TO PARK RVS
• DOG KENNEL
• CHICKEN COOP
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Direction faces north; Lot approximately 0.14 acre (50 x 120 x 50 x 120); Living area about 973 square feet
• Financial info: Homestead exempt
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One level
• Construction: Metal siding; Frame construction; Other construction materials; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a SEVI single wide
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Side porch; Screened porch; Exterior lighting; Wood fencing; Private lot; Paved road access; Kennel / dog run

Interior

• Kitchen: Water filtration system
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Concrete flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating listed; No cooling listed
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Whole-house water purification / water filtration system; Security system
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups (none listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $807 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.7% vs local median 5.6% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 813 students, 71% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 444 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.20%
• DSCR: 4.08
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,922
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4878 N Redwood Ave	0.21mi	2/2.0 (+1)	958 (-2%)	7mo	$109,000	$114	73
3670 E Squaw Valley Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,018 (+5%)	4mo	$75,000	$74	62
4285 N Trapper Ter	0.42mi	2/1.0 (+1)	924 (-5%)	13mo	$75,000	$81	56
5146 N Agate Ter	0.56mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+11%)	12mo	$170,000	$157	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $43,341
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.43×
• Total profit: $104,042
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $50,000 Active
3. 2026-02-15
   historical
4. 2025-12-30
   price $50,000
5. 2025-09-17
   price $99,900
6. 2025-08-16
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,401
• − Management: −$1,401
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $9,455
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,269
• After-tax cash flow: $7,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-60.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-16 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $27 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.