9409 E Navajo Pl · Sun Lakes, AZ 85248

$224,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1980 6,713 sqft lot $167/sqft · 12% below area Est $257k · 13% under $146/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 59% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BANK-OWNED OPPORTUNITY in the highly desirable Sun Lakes Country Club, a premier active-adult community. This move-in-ready 3-bed, 2-bath home (1,345 SqFt) is an ideal fix-and-flip or buy-and-hold investment.1 The updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, an island with breakfast-bar seating, double pantry cabinets, and a formal dining area. Enjoy a private backyard with mountain views and access to the community pool. The primary bedroom offers an ensuite bath, and the HOA is only $122.50/mo. Additional features include a 1-car carport and extra slab parking.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Formal dining area
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE PANTRY CABINETS
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.8% in Sun Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#135 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anna Marie Jacobson Elementary School (math 61% / reading 71%, grade B+, #82 of 1,109 statewide, top 8%, 675 students, 22% FRL); Bogle Junior High School (math 43% / reading 52%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 1,151 students, 26% FRL); Hamilton High School (math 52% / reading 49%, grade D+, #36 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 3,850 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,453 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.29%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,169
• List price: $224,950
• Delta: -12.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9409 E Navajo Pl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+0%)	1mo	$225,000	$167	99
9241 E Cactus Ln S	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (+1%)	2mo	$274,900	$203	80
9254 E Cactus Ln S	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (+5%)	2mo	$220,000	$155	71
9416 E Lakeside Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	3mo	$259,000	$208	66
9101 E Sun Lakes Blvd S	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$233,400	$162	63
26245 S Lakeview Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,441 (+7%)	2mo	$324,000	$225	63
9205 E Sun Lakes Blvd	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (+12%)	2mo	$199,900	$133	61
9034 E Citrus Ln N	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (+1%)	3mo	$223,400	$165	60
9015 E Citrus Ln S	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (+6%)	2mo	$249,000	$174	58
25635 S Country Club Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+2%)	2mo	$203,777	$149	56
8929 E Sun Lakes Blvd S	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-5%)	4mo	$250,000	$197	54
9109 E Country Club Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,162 (-14%)	4mo	$198,000	$170	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-12,629
• Equity at exit: $33,541

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $9,223
• Equity at exit: $19,450

Cash invested: $62,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85248

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,463 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,096/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$146
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,912

Max offer price $224,950

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $563	-5% $499	+0% $435	+5% $371	+10% $308
Rent	-10% $241	-5% $338	+0% $435	+5% $532	+10% $630
Rate	-1.0pp $548	-0.5pp $492	base $435	+0.5pp $377	+1.0pp $318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,238
• Closing costs: $6,748
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26618 S Maricopa Pl Sun Lakes, AZ	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,800	$1.13	25d	1	0.06mi
9517 E Navajo Pl Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1324	$1,975	$1.49	45d	1	0.17mi
9119 E Citrus Ln S Sun Lakes, AZ	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,400	$0.97	14d	1	0.36mi
9554 E Fairway Blvd Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1348	$2,100	$1.56	25d	1	0.45mi
9022 E Citrus Ln S Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1162	$1,750	$1.51	20d	1	0.52mi
9334 E Sun Lakes Blvd N Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1236	$2,000	$1.62	6d	1	0.63mi
9348 E Sun Lakes Blvd N Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1480	$2,000	$1.35	16d	1	0.65mi
26646 S New Town Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1373	$3,000	$2.18	2d	1	0.66mi
9111 E Olive Ln N Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,200	$0.96	25d	1	0.66mi
9714 E Sherwood Way Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1823	$4,000	$2.19	2d	1	0.69mi
26625 S Lakemont Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1700	$4,000	$2.35	0d	1	0.74mi
26621 S Lakemont Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	25d	1	0.74mi
9635 E Palomino Pl Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	3.0	1792	$1,850	$1.03	25d	1	0.77mi
9647 E Palomino Pl Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1384	$1,900	$1.37	25d	1	0.77mi
9438 E Michigan Ave Sun Lakes, AZ	3.0	2.0	1658	$4,000	$2.41	0d	1	0.84mi
9107 E Fairway Blvd Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1313	$3,900	$2.97	0d	1	0.84mi
25231 S Papago Pl Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1750	$4,000	$2.29	45d	1	0.86mi
26011 S Lancewood Ct Sun Lakes, AZ	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,295	$1.26	25d	1	0.93mi
25826 S Cedarcrest Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1823	$3,950	$2.17	0d	1	0.94mi
25246 S Glenburn Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1384	$3,200	$2.31	12d	1	0.97mi
25246 S Glenburn Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1384	$3,000	$2.17	0d	1	0.97mi
25424 S Wyoming Ave Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	20d	1	0.98mi
26001 S Beech Creek Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,400	$1.32	16d	1	1.10mi
8934 E Minnesota Ave Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	970	$1,950	$2.01	6d	1	1.10mi
8931 E Copper Valley Ln Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,650	$1.63	45d	1	1.10mi
26014 S Howard Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1584	$3,500	$2.21	45d	1	1.12mi
26005 S Howard Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1700	$1,750	$1.03	3d	1	1.15mi
25115 S Golfview Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1790	$3,500	$1.96	25d	1	1.21mi
9746 E Coopers Hawk Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1566	$4,500	$2.87	25d	1	1.21mi
9746 E Coopers Hawk Dr Unit 1546352P Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1560	$3,066	$1.97	14d	1	1.21mi
25111 S Golfview Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1790	$4,200	$2.35	25d	1	1.22mi
10409 E East Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1545	$1,750	$1.13	25d	1	1.39mi
10502 E Elmhurst Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1763	$3,500	$1.99	0d	1	1.40mi
25024 S Desert Trail Ct Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1614	$2,600	$1.61	25d	1	1.41mi
9635 E Rocky Lake Dr Sun Lakes, AZ	2.0	2.0	1575	$2,500	$1.59	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $146 · $1,752/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   BANK-OWNED OPPORTUNITY in the highly desirable Sun Lakes Country Club, a premier active-adult community. This move-in-ready 3-bed, 2-bath home (1,345 SqFt) is an ideal fix-and-flip or buy-and-hold investment.1 The updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, an island with breakfast-bar seating, double pantry cabinets, and a formal dining area. Enjoy a private backyard with mountain views and access to the community pool. The primary bedroom offers an ensuite bath, and the HOA is only $122.50/mo. Additional features include a 1-car carport and extra slab parking.

2. 2026-05-02
   status Active 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   BANK-OWNED OPPORTUNITY in the highly desirable Sun Lakes Country Club, a premier active-adult community. This move-in-ready 3-bed, 2-bath home (1,345 SqFt) is an ideal fix-and-flip or buy-and-hold investment.1 The updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, an island with breakfast-bar seating, double pantry cabinets, and a formal dining area. Enjoy a private backyard with mountain views and access to the community pool. The primary bedroom offers an ensuite bath, and the HOA is only $122.50/mo. Additional features include a 1-car carport and extra slab parking.

3. 2026-05-01
   status Pending 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   BANK-OWNED OPPORTUNITY in the highly desirable Sun Lakes Country Club, a premier active-adult community. This move-in-ready 3-bed, 2-bath home (1,345 SqFt) is an ideal fix-and-flip or buy-and-hold investment.1 The updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, an island with breakfast-bar seating, double pantry cabinets, and a formal dining area. Enjoy a private backyard with mountain views and access to the community pool. The primary bedroom offers an ensuite bath, and the HOA is only $122.50/mo. Additional features include a 1-car carport and extra slab parking.

4. 2026-02-12
   listed $224,950 Active 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   BANK-OWNED OPPORTUNITY in the highly desirable Sun Lakes Country Club, a premier active-adult community. This move-in-ready 3-bed, 2-bath home (1,345 SqFt) is an ideal fix-and-flip or buy-and-hold investment.1 The updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, an island with breakfast-bar seating, double pantry cabinets, and a formal dining area. Enjoy a private backyard with mountain views and access to the community pool. The primary bedroom offers an ensuite bath, and the HOA is only $122.50/mo. Additional features include a 1-car carport and extra slab parking.

5. 2025-05-08
   soldstatus $275,000
6. 2025-03-11
   historical
7. 2024-12-10
   listed $325,000 Active
8. 2022-04-11
   soldstatus $205,000
9. 2014-01-01
   historical
10. 2013-08-07
    listed $99,000 Active
11. 2005-06-24
    soldstatus $125,000
12. 2005-06-21
    soldstatus $125,000
13. 2005-05-21
    historical
14. 2005-03-26
    listed $125,000
15. 2001-12-17
    soldstatus $91,900
16. 1993-12-07
    soldstatus $71,000
17. 1984-12-07
    soldstatus $545,340

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,096 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$388/yr (+$32/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 4 d/yr ≥112°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,601
• − Property taxes: −$1,096
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,365
• − Management: −$2,365
• − HOA: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$6,544
• Taxable income: $1,711
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$411
• After-tax cash flow: $4,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sun Lakes

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #16572

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun Lakes, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 37,461
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,095
• Household income: $94,495
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.23%
• Current HPI: 265.2743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-58.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $224,950 ARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Listed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2022-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2014-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-08-07 Listed $99,000 ARMLS
• 2005-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-21 Sold (MLS) $125,000 ARMLS
• 2005-05-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-03-26 Listed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2001-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $91,900 Public Records
• 1993-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 1984-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $545,340 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,096 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.