5015 Phoenix Dr · East Milton, FL 32583

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2006 1.07 ac lot Est $180k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BACK ON THE MARKET - BUYERS EMPLOYER IS MOVING THEM OUT OF STATE. More than an acre of level - buildable property with mature trees that just happens to have the bonus of a manufactured home! Yes! You can build your forever home while living ON PROPERTY! Located in a fast growing area of new homes, the location is at the curve of the road and the possibilities are endless. There is even a fire hydrant right at the corner of the property. This home is connected to public water and the septic system is just behind it in the back southwest side of the yard behind the home. There is a large clearing in the back end of the property where you could build a pole barn or garage and there is a metal yard building for additional storage. The home features 3 large bedrooms, 2 baths and vaulted ceilings. The master suite has a garden tub, separate shower and is on the opposite side of the home from the other 2 bedrooms and bath. The kitchen has a breakfast bar, all electric appliances and lots of cabinets. The laundry room is near the back door adjacent to the kitchen. So what are you waiting for?!?! Bring an open mind, your builder, your house plans and all of your toys then buy this property!

Key facts

• Raised garden
• Above ground pool
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• NEW DECK
• NEWER LVP FLOORING
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• RAISED GARDEN
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• FIRE PIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is a resale (not new construction); Building area approximately 1,056 square feet
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Copper electrical wiring; County-maintained road access
• Home design: Modular home; Single-story
• Construction: Off-grade foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Front porch; Above-ground pool; Central access to the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Butcher block and laminate counters; Cabinets were painted; Updated some appliances; Includes dishwasher and refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor, approximately 13.8' x 11.5'
• Flooring: Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Recently updated within the last 1–5 years
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Simulated wood flooring; Updated bathrooms with granite countertops and fresh paint
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.6% in East Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in FL, #3,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Martin Luther King Middle School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 660 students, 69% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 822 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $185k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,082 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.34%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,520
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5015 Phoenix Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	0mo	$180,000	$170	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-12,649
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $19,098
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 822
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,074/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $283	+0% $231	+5% $178	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $162	+0% $231	+5% $299	+10% $367
Rate	-1.0pp $324	-0.5pp $278	base $231	+0.5pp $183	+1.0pp $134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4819 Douglas Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,100	$1.19	16d	1	0.72mi
4825 Douglas Dr Milton, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	16d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $185,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Contingent 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Contingent 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $185,000 Contingent 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Contingent 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $185,000 Contingent 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,000 Contingent 18 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Contingent 17 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Contingent 16 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    historical Contingent
11. 2026-05-14
    listed $185,000 Active
12. 2023-05-19
    soldstatus $115,000
13. 2023-05-17
    historical 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET - BUYERS EMPLOYER IS MOVING THEM OUT OF STATE. More than an acre of level - buildable property with mature trees that just happens to have the bonus of a manufactured home! Yes! You can build your forever home while living ON PROPERTY! Located in a fast growing area of new homes, the location is at the curve of the road and the possibilities are endless. There is even a fire hydrant right at the corner of the property. This home is connected to public water and the septic system is just behind it in the back southwest side of the yard behind the home. There is a large clearing in the back end of the property where you could build a pole barn or garage and there is a metal yard building for additional storage. The home features 3 large bedrooms, 2 baths and vaulted ceilings. The master suite has a garden tub, separate shower and is on the opposite side of the home from the other 2 bedrooms and bath. The kitchen has a breakfast bar, all electric appliances and lots of cabinets. The laundry room is near the back door adjacent to the kitchen. So what are you waiting for?!?! Bring an open mind, your builder, your house plans and all of your toys then buy this property!

14. 2023-05-16
    soldstatus $115,000 Sold 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET - BUYERS EMPLOYER IS MOVING THEM OUT OF STATE. More than an acre of level - buildable property with mature trees that just happens to have the bonus of a manufactured home! Yes! You can build your forever home while living ON PROPERTY! Located in a fast growing area of new homes, the location is at the curve of the road and the possibilities are endless. There is even a fire hydrant right at the corner of the property. This home is connected to public water and the septic system is just behind it in the back southwest side of the yard behind the home. There is a large clearing in the back end of the property where you could build a pole barn or garage and there is a metal yard building for additional storage. The home features 3 large bedrooms, 2 baths and vaulted ceilings. The master suite has a garden tub, separate shower and is on the opposite side of the home from the other 2 bedrooms and bath. The kitchen has a breakfast bar, all electric appliances and lots of cabinets. The laundry room is near the back door adjacent to the kitchen. So what are you waiting for?!?! Bring an open mind, your builder, your house plans and all of your toys then buy this property!

15. 2023-05-02
    historical Contingent 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET - BUYERS EMPLOYER IS MOVING THEM OUT OF STATE. More than an acre of level - buildable property with mature trees that just happens to have the bonus of a manufactured home! Yes! You can build your forever home while living ON PROPERTY! Located in a fast growing area of new homes, the location is at the curve of the road and the possibilities are endless. There is even a fire hydrant right at the corner of the property. This home is connected to public water and the septic system is just behind it in the back southwest side of the yard behind the home. There is a large clearing in the back end of the property where you could build a pole barn or garage and there is a metal yard building for additional storage. The home features 3 large bedrooms, 2 baths and vaulted ceilings. The master suite has a garden tub, separate shower and is on the opposite side of the home from the other 2 bedrooms and bath. The kitchen has a breakfast bar, all electric appliances and lots of cabinets. The laundry room is near the back door adjacent to the kitchen. So what are you waiting for?!?! Bring an open mind, your builder, your house plans and all of your toys then buy this property!

16. 2023-05-02
    status Active 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET - BUYERS EMPLOYER IS MOVING THEM OUT OF STATE. More than an acre of level - buildable property with mature trees that just happens to have the bonus of a manufactured home! Yes! You can build your forever home while living ON PROPERTY! Located in a fast growing area of new homes, the location is at the curve of the road and the possibilities are endless. There is even a fire hydrant right at the corner of the property. This home is connected to public water and the septic system is just behind it in the back southwest side of the yard behind the home. There is a large clearing in the back end of the property where you could build a pole barn or garage and there is a metal yard building for additional storage. The home features 3 large bedrooms, 2 baths and vaulted ceilings. The master suite has a garden tub, separate shower and is on the opposite side of the home from the other 2 bedrooms and bath. The kitchen has a breakfast bar, all electric appliances and lots of cabinets. The laundry room is near the back door adjacent to the kitchen. So what are you waiting for?!?! Bring an open mind, your builder, your house plans and all of your toys then buy this property!

17. 2023-04-23
    historical Contingent 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET - BUYERS EMPLOYER IS MOVING THEM OUT OF STATE. More than an acre of level - buildable property with mature trees that just happens to have the bonus of a manufactured home! Yes! You can build your forever home while living ON PROPERTY! Located in a fast growing area of new homes, the location is at the curve of the road and the possibilities are endless. There is even a fire hydrant right at the corner of the property. This home is connected to public water and the septic system is just behind it in the back southwest side of the yard behind the home. There is a large clearing in the back end of the property where you could build a pole barn or garage and there is a metal yard building for additional storage. The home features 3 large bedrooms, 2 baths and vaulted ceilings. The master suite has a garden tub, separate shower and is on the opposite side of the home from the other 2 bedrooms and bath. The kitchen has a breakfast bar, all electric appliances and lots of cabinets. The laundry room is near the back door adjacent to the kitchen. So what are you waiting for?!?! Bring an open mind, your builder, your house plans and all of your toys then buy this property!

18. 2023-04-20
    listed $115,000 Active 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET - BUYERS EMPLOYER IS MOVING THEM OUT OF STATE. More than an acre of level - buildable property with mature trees that just happens to have the bonus of a manufactured home! Yes! You can build your forever home while living ON PROPERTY! Located in a fast growing area of new homes, the location is at the curve of the road and the possibilities are endless. There is even a fire hydrant right at the corner of the property. This home is connected to public water and the septic system is just behind it in the back southwest side of the yard behind the home. There is a large clearing in the back end of the property where you could build a pole barn or garage and there is a metal yard building for additional storage. The home features 3 large bedrooms, 2 baths and vaulted ceilings. The master suite has a garden tub, separate shower and is on the opposite side of the home from the other 2 bedrooms and bath. The kitchen has a breakfast bar, all electric appliances and lots of cabinets. The laundry room is near the back door adjacent to the kitchen. So what are you waiting for?!?! Bring an open mind, your builder, your house plans and all of your toys then buy this property!

19. 2023-03-27
    soldstatus $53,000
20. 2016-07-14
    soldstatus $47,900
21. 2016-06-24
    soldstatus $47,900 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Beautiful 3 bed / 2 bath home on 1 acre built in 2006. You will Not believe how clean this house is. Everything is in perfect order and is move in ready. Very open floor plan with a Large breakfast bar with plenty of room for bar stools. Large living room with big windows to let the light in. Split floor plan. The master bath has a separate shower as well as a soaking tub. Make an appointment to view this home today you will not be disappointed.

22. 2016-02-01
    listed $49,999 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Beautiful 3 bed / 2 bath home on 1 acre built in 2006. You will Not believe how clean this house is. Everything is in perfect order and is move in ready. Very open floor plan with a Large breakfast bar with plenty of room for bar stools. Large living room with big windows to let the light in. Split floor plan. The master bath has a separate shower as well as a soaking tub. Make an appointment to view this home today you will not be disappointed.

23. 2012-06-28
    soldstatus $42,900
24. 2012-05-29
    listed $47,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,074 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$461/yr (+$38/mo · 42.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,074
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$71
• After-tax cash flow: $2,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Milton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #3139

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Milton, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 31,415
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+286.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $185,000 PARMLS
• 2023-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-17 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2023-05-16 Sold (MLS) $115,000 PARMLS
• 2023-05-02 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-05-02 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-04-23 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-04-20 Listed $115,000 PARMLS
• 2023-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records
• 2016-06-24 Sold (MLS) $47,900 PARMLS
• 2016-02-01 Listed $49,999 PARMLS
• 2012-06-28 Sold (MLS) $42,900 PARMLS
• 2012-05-29 Listed $47,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,074 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.