8 Crumley Van Vactor Rd · Mongaup Valley, NY 12734

$225,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 588 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This quaint, peaceful country ranch home is located on a corner lot with 1.32 acres of plush grass. Move in ready, well maintained two bedrooms and 1.5 baths, with and extra room that could be a small bedroom. A fairly large deck to sit and enjoy the county air. There is a detached garage for your car with extra room for storage. Priced to sell, a must come and see. Only two hours from NYC in the beautiful Town of Bethel, home of Bethel Woods. ACCEPTED OFFER-06/26

Key facts

• Large deck
• 1.32 acres
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• 1.32 ACRES
• LARGE DECK
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-700 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (54.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (57.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (57.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 1.9% in Mongaup Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Liberty Central School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #569 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 691 students, 64% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #664 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 529 students, 68% FRL); Liberty High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 596 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Liberty Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $96,159 (57.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.32%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 19.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $45,311
• Equity at exit: $167,982

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $164,404
• Equity at exit: $330,663

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12734

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 19.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,226/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,847

Max offer price $101,426

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-572	-5% $-636	+0% $-700	+5% $-763	+10% $-827
Rent	-10% $-775	-5% $-738	+0% $-700	+5% $-662	+10% $-624
Rate	-1.0pp $-586	-0.5pp $-642	base $-700	+0.5pp $-758	+1.0pp $-817

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-07-01
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-09
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,226 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,014 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$788/yr (+$66/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,226
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$923
• − Management: −$923
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$12,807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,074
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617220
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,542
• Composite: 27.65/100
• National rank: #6920
• State rank: #569 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mongaup Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 453
• Population (ZIP): 563

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 4% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Russian 5% Subsaharan African 4%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.81%
• Current HPI: 515.1175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Listed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,226 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.