1306 Yale Ave · Stockton, CA 95203

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1921 6,652 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover potential in this charming short sale opportunity at 1306 Yale Ave, Stockton! This cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers 1,388 sq ft of living space on a spacious 6,650 sq ft corner lot. Step inside to find a welcoming layout featuring a comfortable living area with a fireplace, perfect for relaxing on cooler evenings. The generous bedrooms provide ample space for your personal touch, making this home a great option for first-time buyers or investors looking to expand their portfolio. The outdoor area offers plenty of room for gardening, entertaining, or simply enjoying the fresh air. Don't miss out on this chance to make this property your ownschedule a showing today and explore

Key facts

• Outdoor area
• Corner lot
• 6,652 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OUTDOOR AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hoover Elementary (710 students, 78% FRL); Stagg Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 1,773 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Stockton Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.27%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,388
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1121 N Baker St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,380 (-1%)	3mo	$300,000	$217	63
1050 W Elm St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,299 (-6%)	3mo	$230,000	$177	62
1732 Bristol Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,309 (-6%)	4mo	$302,000	$231	59
1147 N Country Club Blvd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,445 (+4%)	3mo	$332,000	$230	53
1446 N Edison St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,339 (-4%)	1mo	$390,000	$291	51
1116 W Park St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,298 (-6%)	2mo	$400,000	$308	51
1128 W Walnut St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+12%)	4mo	$450,000	$289	50
836 W Park	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,472 (+6%)	2mo	$370,000	$251	49
733 W Magnolia St	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,215 (-12%)	3mo	$50,000	$41	46
2221 Kensington Way	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,556 (+12%)	3mo	$449,000	$289	45
1425 Michigan Ave	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,589 (+14%)	3mo	$375,000	$236	36
2059 Country Club Blvd	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,180 (-15%)	3mo	$430,000	$364	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-21,048
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-10,656
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95203

• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$366 /mo · $4,393/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,646

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $134	+0% $87	+5% $41	+10% $-6
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $18	+0% $87	+5% $157	+10% $226
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $129	base $87	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1421 Buena Vista Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,850	$1.67	16d	1	0.23mi
1759 Middlefield Ave Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$2,100	$2.28	5d	1	0.40mi
1003 Victoria Ave Unit 1003 Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1028	$2,000	$1.95	45d	1	0.58mi
1503 N Edison St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	16d	1	0.68mi
1509 N Edison St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	25d	1	0.68mi
843 N Lincoln St Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	969	$1,195	$1.23	45d	1	0.87mi
322 Lexington Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	1508	$2,400	$1.59	45d	1	1.00mi
802 W Weber Ave Unit 133 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,545	$1.58	16d	2	1.08mi
520 N Monroe St Unit 520 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,025	$1.14	45d	1	1.13mi
3303 Franklin Ave Apt 2 Stockton, CA	3.0	1.5	891	$1,295	$1.45	45d	1	1.13mi
2424 N Center St Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1158	$2,995	$2.59	45d	1	1.27mi
32 E Wyandotte St Apt D Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	45d	1	1.28mi
2029 Christina Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,350	$1.72	45d	1	1.30mi
1331 Pinetree Dr #4 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,800	$1.95	45d	1	1.31mi
212 W Euclid Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1833	$2,900	$1.58	45d	1	1.33mi
3939 N Pershing Ave Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$1,350	$1.74	5d	4	1.33mi
220 E Ellis St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,495	$1.59	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2020-11-04
   soldstatus $320,000
2. 2020-03-03
   soldstatus $2,350,000
3. 2015-08-05
   soldstatus $1,437,500
4. 2012-10-31
   soldstatus $74,000
5. 2003-10-15
   soldstatus $267,000
6. 1998-04-07
   soldstatus $109,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,393 · $366/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,393 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$4,393
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$374
• After-tax cash flow: $1,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,930
• Household income: $63,411
• Rent vs Own: 57.0% rent · 43.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 58% White 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 10% Black 9% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -342.07%
• Current HPI: 455.9551
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+193.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2020-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $2,350,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $1,437,500 Public Records
• 2012-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $267,000 Public Records
• 1998-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,393 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.