3615 Willow Wisp Dr S · Kathleen, FL 33810

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,527 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1983 0.25 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet street just off Duff Rd.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.25 acre (regular lot); Lot dimensions: frontage 75 ft, depth ~146 ft; Total area listed as 2,012 sq ft (source: Property Appraiser Office); Directions: From Kathleen Rd, go east on Duff Rd then left on Willow Wisp Dr S to property; Possession at closing
• Financial info: Taxes listed (refer to listing for details)
• HOA & community: No HOA maintenance or amenities; Non-gated community; Part of a 45-unit complex (single-unit building)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Central water; Septic sewer; Cable available; Electric service for heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential single-family home; One story; Rear exposure faces north; Built in 1983; Concrete block construction
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco finish; Shingle roof; Built in 1983
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shingle roof; Single-hung windows; Stucco exterior; Landscaped view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath described in remarks
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace; High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Great room floor plan; Screened lanai/porch; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Automatic garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($497/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $285k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,680 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.62%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-44,171
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-37,623
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $779/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,124

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $122	+0% $41	+5% $-39	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-45	+0% $41	+5% $127	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $114	base $41	+0.5pp $-32	+1.0pp $-108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3366 Mahogany Pointe Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,125	$1.36	4d	1	0.70mi
3063 Westmoreland Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,350	$1.34	20d	1	0.72mi
3634 Sherertz Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,825	$1.42	4d	1	0.75mi
7823 Sugar Pine Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1559	$1,875	$1.20	4d	1	0.77mi
7446 Briarbay Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,810	$1.46	4d	1	0.91mi
7508 Briarbay Loop Unit A11 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$2,090	$1.55	4d	1	0.91mi
7047 Hazeltine Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$2,300	$1.32	15d	1	0.92mi
2918 W Campbell Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,200	$1.64	15d	1	0.96mi
7901 Sioux Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,791	$1.34	24d	1	1.00mi
7943 Indian Heights Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,975	$1.51	15d	1	1.01mi
7327 Floral Cir E Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	2180	$2,295	$1.05	4d	1	1.07mi
8007 Apache Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,010	$1.58	24d	1	1.13mi
7362 Beaumont Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1752	$2,200	$1.26	15d	1	1.15mi
7362 Beaumont Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1752	$2,200	$1.26	4d	1	1.15mi
8426 Greystone Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,350	$1.51	24d	1	1.17mi
3923 Ward Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,595	$1.93	11d	1	1.30mi
8179 Woodvine Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,085	$1.43	4d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $285,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-05-20
   status Active
3. 2026-05-18
   status Pending With Contingencies
4. 2026-05-08
   listed $285,000 Active
5. 2005-10-27
   soldstatus $185,000
6. 2005-10-14
   soldstatus $185,000 30-char remark

   Show marketing remark (30 chars)

   Quiet street just off Duff Rd.

7. 2005-09-05
   listed $189,900 30-char remark

   Show marketing remark (30 chars)

   Quiet street just off Duff Rd.

8. 1997-07-01
   soldstatus $62,000
9. 1985-03-01
   soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,586/yr (+$132/mo · 203.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$779
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,090
• − Management: −$2,090
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$4,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,084
• After-tax cash flow: $1,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kathleen

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #16450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 52,734
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+448.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — BEARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — BEARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $285,000 BEARMLS
• 2005-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-14 Sold (MLS) $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-05 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1985-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $779 · +17.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.