9170 Sussex Dr · Stony Creek, VA 23882

$64,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 975 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1972 0.54 ac lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED!! Move-in Ready! Great home for a first time buyer or investor for rental property! The home has been renovated and has new carpet through-out, new vinyl flooring, new toilet & sink, new windows! Located just off I-95 on Rt 40 in Stony Creek !

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1972

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking (unpaved)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Brick, block and vinyl siding construction; Built as existing (actual year built recorded)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch; Unpaved driveway; Level and wooded lot; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 225

Interior

• Bedrooms: Main level primary
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Main level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#255 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sussex County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #111 of 131 in VA (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $63,926 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.61%
• DSCR: 3.12
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $64,127
• Equity at exit: $40,250

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.41×
• Total profit: $152,788
• Equity at exit: $72,523

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23882

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $317/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $498

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $64,900 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $64,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $64,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $64,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $64,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-05-19
   listed $64,900 Active
7. 2026-05-19
   historical $64,900
8. 2019-11-06
   soldstatus $59,444
9. 2019-11-05
   soldstatus $61,250 Closed 260-char remark

   Show marketing remark (260 chars)

   REDUCED!! Move-in Ready! Great home for a first time buyer or investor for rental property! The home has been renovated and has new carpet through-out, new vinyl flooring, new toilet & sink, new windows! Located just off I-95 on Rt 40 in Stony Creek !

10. 2019-07-25
    status Pending 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    REDUCED!! Move-in Ready! Great home for a first time buyer or investor for rental property! The home has been renovated and has new carpet through-out, new vinyl flooring, new toilet & sink, new windows! Located just off I-95 on Rt 40 in Stony Creek !

11. 2019-07-03
    price $59,900 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    REDUCED!! Move-in Ready! Great home for a first time buyer or investor for rental property! The home has been renovated and has new carpet through-out, new vinyl flooring, new toilet & sink, new windows! Located just off I-95 on Rt 40 in Stony Creek !

12. 2019-07-03
    status Active 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    REDUCED!! Move-in Ready! Great home for a first time buyer or investor for rental property! The home has been renovated and has new carpet through-out, new vinyl flooring, new toilet & sink, new windows! Located just off I-95 on Rt 40 in Stony Creek !

13. 2019-06-01
    status Pending 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    REDUCED!! Move-in Ready! Great home for a first time buyer or investor for rental property! The home has been renovated and has new carpet through-out, new vinyl flooring, new toilet & sink, new windows! Located just off I-95 on Rt 40 in Stony Creek !

14. 2019-06-01
    historical 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    REDUCED!! Move-in Ready! Great home for a first time buyer or investor for rental property! The home has been renovated and has new carpet through-out, new vinyl flooring, new toilet & sink, new windows! Located just off I-95 on Rt 40 in Stony Creek !

15. 2018-11-28
    price $67,990 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    REDUCED!! Move-in Ready! Great home for a first time buyer or investor for rental property! The home has been renovated and has new carpet through-out, new vinyl flooring, new toilet & sink, new windows! Located just off I-95 on Rt 40 in Stony Creek !

16. 2018-07-03
    listed $72,990 Active 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    REDUCED!! Move-in Ready! Great home for a first time buyer or investor for rental property! The home has been renovated and has new carpet through-out, new vinyl flooring, new toilet & sink, new windows! Located just off I-95 on Rt 40 in Stony Creek !

17. 2016-10-02
    historical
18. 2016-09-02
    status Active
19. 2016-08-27
    status Pending
20. 2016-05-05
    listed $74,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $317 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$215/yr (+$18/mo · 67.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$317
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,355
• − Management: −$1,355
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $8,059
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,934
• After-tax cash flow: $6,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sussex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103780
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -46.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4198
• State rank: #111 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stony Creek

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #8654

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,967

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,207 people
• By 2030: 10,897 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 10,451 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 9,936 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 8,643 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 6,908 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 39% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovene 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.9% · R 47.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: 23.8pp · 2024: 4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.4 2020: D+11.9 2016: D+16.3 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+23.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.87%
• Current HPI: 160.116
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $64,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-19 Coming Soon $64,900 CVRMLS
• 2019-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $59,444 Public Records
• 2019-11-05 Sold (MLS) $61,250 CVRMLS
• 2019-07-25 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2019-07-03 Price Changed $59,900 CVRMLS
• 2019-07-03 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2019-06-01 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2019-06-01 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2018-11-28 Price Changed $67,990 CVRMLS
• 2018-07-03 Listed $72,990 CVRMLS
• 2016-10-02 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2016-09-02 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2016-08-27 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2016-05-05 Listed $74,950 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $317 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.