424 Vermont Ave · Green Cove Springs, FL 32043

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1950 7,405 sqft lot Est $267k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is priced under 200k, Beautifully renovated & move in ready! Clay County. 3 bedrooms and 2 updated full bathrooms. Impeccable appliances & brand new kitchen. Fireplace, new flooring.. you name it, they did it. New Roof, fencing, interior and exterior paint throughout. The list goes on. Property sits within a mile to the Green Cove Springs City pool, Park, Waterfront Dock... This is the heart of Green Cove Springs. Do not miss your opportunity to see this & call it home! Please call/text for your private tour today.

Key facts

• No cdd
• Updated kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NO HOA
• NO CDD
• ROOF REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking available
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Entry level: 1; Faces west
• Construction: Concrete construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Screened porch; Few trees on the lot; City street frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Split-bedroom layout; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Green Cove Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in FL, #3,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles E. Bennett Elementary School (math 41% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 624 students, 100% FRL); Green Cove Springs Junior High School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 799 students, 38% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 891 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,349 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,976
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
502 Vermont Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,283 (-1%)	6mo	$259,000	$202	76
104 Jack St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,180 (-9%)	1mo	$252,000	$214	69
1303 Bonaventure Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,185 (-9%)	5mo	$267,500	$226	69
411 Pearl St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-12%)	5mo	$240,000	$211	68
466 Sally St	0.22mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (-7%)	3mo	$238,000	$198	68
407 Green St S	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-1%)	4mo	$270,000	$210	67
1290 Spruce St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-3%)	2mo	$275,000	$219	63
1116 Bonaventure Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,433 (+11%)	6mo	$295,000	$206	59
20 Vermont Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,145 (-12%)	4mo	$225,000	$197	54
101 S Oakridge Ave	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,468 (+13%)	0mo	$200,000	$136	52
1217 Spruce St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+6%)	3mo	$259,000	$188	52
219 N West St	0.47mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,456 (+12%)	3mo	$250,000	$172	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-51,459
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-72,658
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,175/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,090

Max offer price $225,882

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $30	-5% $-39	+0% $-108	+5% $-178	+10% $-247
Rent	-10% $-263	-5% $-185	+0% $-108	+5% $-31	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-46	base $-108	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1507 Julia St Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,020	$1.25	3d	1	0.24mi
4019 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4019 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.41mi
4016 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4016 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.42mi
4028 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4028 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.42mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	5d	1	0.50mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	4d	1	0.50mi
806 Oak St Unit 10 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	5d	1	0.50mi
806 Oak St Unit 10 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	4d	1	0.50mi
410 Center St Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	25d	1	0.93mi
4028 Pine Ave Unit 1 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1304	$1,850	$1.42	4d	1	0.97mi
4019 Pine Ave Unit 1 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1304	$1,850	$1.42	4d	1	0.97mi
212 Saint Johns Ave Unit 212 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	25d	1	1.11mi
104 Saint Elmo Rd Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,850	$1.65	25d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Active
2. 2026-03-11
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-28
   listed $245,000 Active
4. 2021-09-23
   soldstatus $202,500
5. 2021-09-17
   soldstatus $202,500 Sold 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Home is priced under 200k, Beautifully renovated & move in ready! Clay County. 3 bedrooms and 2 updated full bathrooms. Impeccable appliances & brand new kitchen. Fireplace, new flooring.. you name it, they did it. New Roof, fencing, interior and exterior paint throughout. The list goes on. Property sits within a mile to the Green Cove Springs City pool, Park, Waterfront Dock... This is the heart of Green Cove Springs. Do not miss your opportunity to see this & call it home! Please call/text for your private tour today.

6. 2021-08-21
   status Pending 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Home is priced under 200k, Beautifully renovated & move in ready! Clay County. 3 bedrooms and 2 updated full bathrooms. Impeccable appliances & brand new kitchen. Fireplace, new flooring.. you name it, they did it. New Roof, fencing, interior and exterior paint throughout. The list goes on. Property sits within a mile to the Green Cove Springs City pool, Park, Waterfront Dock... This is the heart of Green Cove Springs. Do not miss your opportunity to see this & call it home! Please call/text for your private tour today.

7. 2021-08-07
   historical Active - Contingent 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Home is priced under 200k, Beautifully renovated & move in ready! Clay County. 3 bedrooms and 2 updated full bathrooms. Impeccable appliances & brand new kitchen. Fireplace, new flooring.. you name it, they did it. New Roof, fencing, interior and exterior paint throughout. The list goes on. Property sits within a mile to the Green Cove Springs City pool, Park, Waterfront Dock... This is the heart of Green Cove Springs. Do not miss your opportunity to see this & call it home! Please call/text for your private tour today.

8. 2021-07-30
   status Active 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Home is priced under 200k, Beautifully renovated & move in ready! Clay County. 3 bedrooms and 2 updated full bathrooms. Impeccable appliances & brand new kitchen. Fireplace, new flooring.. you name it, they did it. New Roof, fencing, interior and exterior paint throughout. The list goes on. Property sits within a mile to the Green Cove Springs City pool, Park, Waterfront Dock... This is the heart of Green Cove Springs. Do not miss your opportunity to see this & call it home! Please call/text for your private tour today.

9. 2021-07-29
   historical Active - Contingent 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Home is priced under 200k, Beautifully renovated & move in ready! Clay County. 3 bedrooms and 2 updated full bathrooms. Impeccable appliances & brand new kitchen. Fireplace, new flooring.. you name it, they did it. New Roof, fencing, interior and exterior paint throughout. The list goes on. Property sits within a mile to the Green Cove Springs City pool, Park, Waterfront Dock... This is the heart of Green Cove Springs. Do not miss your opportunity to see this & call it home! Please call/text for your private tour today.

10. 2021-07-27
    status Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Home is priced under 200k, Beautifully renovated & move in ready! Clay County. 3 bedrooms and 2 updated full bathrooms. Impeccable appliances & brand new kitchen. Fireplace, new flooring.. you name it, they did it. New Roof, fencing, interior and exterior paint throughout. The list goes on. Property sits within a mile to the Green Cove Springs City pool, Park, Waterfront Dock... This is the heart of Green Cove Springs. Do not miss your opportunity to see this & call it home! Please call/text for your private tour today.

11. 2021-07-15
    historical Active - Contingent 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Home is priced under 200k, Beautifully renovated & move in ready! Clay County. 3 bedrooms and 2 updated full bathrooms. Impeccable appliances & brand new kitchen. Fireplace, new flooring.. you name it, they did it. New Roof, fencing, interior and exterior paint throughout. The list goes on. Property sits within a mile to the Green Cove Springs City pool, Park, Waterfront Dock... This is the heart of Green Cove Springs. Do not miss your opportunity to see this & call it home! Please call/text for your private tour today.

12. 2021-07-13
    listed $199,900 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Home is priced under 200k, Beautifully renovated & move in ready! Clay County. 3 bedrooms and 2 updated full bathrooms. Impeccable appliances & brand new kitchen. Fireplace, new flooring.. you name it, they did it. New Roof, fencing, interior and exterior paint throughout. The list goes on. Property sits within a mile to the Green Cove Springs City pool, Park, Waterfront Dock... This is the heart of Green Cove Springs. Do not miss your opportunity to see this & call it home! Please call/text for your private tour today.

13. 2010-01-22
    historical 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    Split bedroom plan, wood floors, fireplace. Property sold in as-is condition.

14. 2010-01-21
    soldstatus $14,000 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    Split bedroom plan, wood floors, fireplace. Property sold in as-is condition.

15. 2009-09-15
    listed $14,900 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    Split bedroom plan, wood floors, fireplace. Property sold in as-is condition.

16. 2009-09-03
    historical
17. 2009-05-03
    listed $24,900
18. 2005-12-28
    soldstatus $62,000
19. 2000-11-06
    soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,175 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,175 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,175
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,334
• After-tax cash flow: $36/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Green Cove Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #3868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Cove Springs, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 34,562
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+240.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-03-11 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $245,000 realMLS
• 2021-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $202,500 Public Records
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) $202,500 realMLS
• 2021-08-21 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-08-07 Contingent — realMLS
• 2021-07-30 Relisted — realMLS
• 2021-07-29 Contingent — realMLS
• 2021-07-27 Relisted — realMLS
• 2021-07-15 Contingent — realMLS
• 2021-07-13 Listed $199,900 realMLS
• 2010-01-22 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2010-01-21 Sold (MLS) $14,000 realMLS
• 2009-09-15 Listed $14,900 realMLS
• 2009-09-03 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2009-05-03 Listed $24,900 realMLS
• 2005-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2000-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,175 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.