16049 NE 9th Pl · North Miami Beach, FL 33162

$475,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1954 6,890 sqft lot Est $350k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering modern upgrades and bright, inviting living spaces. Features include a brand-new roof, new A/C, impact windows, and luxury LVP flooring throughout for a clean, cohesive look. The modern kitchen is equipped with new appliances and provides a functional layout for everyday living. Enjoy a spacious yard with plenty of room to relax, entertain, or add a pool. An attached covered storage area adds valuable extra space rarely found in similar homes. With quality upgrades, abundant natural light, and room to grow, this home is truly move-in ready.

Key facts

• Luxury lvp flooring
• New a/c
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW A/C
• IMPACT WINDOWS
• LUXURY LVP FLOORING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($633/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $425k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.2% in North Miami Beach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#71 in FL, #1,177 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Grove Elementary School (math 29% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 472 students, 80% FRL); John F. Kennedy Middle School (math 47% / reading 55%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,074 students, 67% FRL); North Miami Beach Senior High (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,149 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 287 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,246/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 2509% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $424,620 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,650
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1071 NE 160th Ter	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (+13%)	5mo	$370,000	$313	64
1480 NE 157th St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,125 (+7%)	3mo	$375,000	$333	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-85,981
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-118,329
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33162

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$613 /mo · $7,355/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,179

Max offer price $475,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $322	-5% $187	+0% $53	+5% $-82	+10% $-216
Rent	-10% $-283	-5% $-115	+0% $53	+5% $220	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $174	base $53	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   price $475,000
3. 2026-02-23
   listed $485,000 Active
4. 2026-02-22
   historical
5. 2026-02-09
   price $489,900
6. 2026-01-05
   price $499,990
7. 2025-12-04
   listed $500,000 Active
8. 2025-09-04
   price $469,000
9. 2025-09-04
   historical
10. 2025-07-24
    listed $369,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,355 · $613/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,355 · $613/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$7,355
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,076
• − Management: −$4,076
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$7,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,765
• After-tax cash flow: $2,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Miami Beach

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #1177

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Miami Beach, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 90,324
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,606
• Household income: $60,692
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2509.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 7% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 31% Romanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 52% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 29% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 35% Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -445.57%
• Current HPI: 596.6178
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+28.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — MARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $475,000 MARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $485,000 MARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $489,900 MARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $499,990 MARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $500,000 MARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $469,000 MARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $369,000 MARMLS

Property tax history

+22.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,355 · +880.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.