609 S Alp St · Bay City, MI 48706

$134,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1945 5,663 sqft lot Est $109k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this nice 2 bedroom home featuring fresh paint, an inviting eat in kitchen, and a convenient pantry for extra storage. The spacious basement offers plenty of room for hobbies, storage, or future finishing. Enjoy outdoor living on the large deck overlooking a fully fenced backyard, perfect for pets or entertaining. A 1 car detached garage includes a workbench with gas and electric, ideal for projects year round. Major updates include a new roof and gutters in 2026, giving you peace of mind for years to come. Blocks away from the famous Bay City fireworks and Riverwalk. Call today for a showing,

Key facts

• Large deck
• Eat in kitchen
• Convenient pantry

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• CONVENIENT PANTRY
• SPACIOUS BASEMENT
• LARGE DECK
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential zoning; Entry level above-grade finished living area
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Block crawl space basement (unfinished)
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard; City lot; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.10%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,296
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 S Barclay St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,003 (-1%)	1mo	$127,000	$127	87
613 S Wenona Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0	992 (-2%)	0mo	$92,000	$93	80
313 S Alp St	0.25mi	2/2.0	981 (-3%)	1mo	$165,000	$168	78
304 S Erie St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,011 (-0%)	3mo	$90,000	$89	74
214 S Warner St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,042 (+3%)	4mo	$113,000	$108	70
707 Raymond St	0.16mi	2/1.5	888 (-12%)	1mo	$150,000	$169	69
1507 W White St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+4%)	0mo	$175,000	$166	66
608 S Williams St	0.42mi	2/1.0	943 (-7%)	5mo	$47,000	$50	65
1303 S Warner St	0.56mi	2/1.0	922 (-9%)	5mo	$74,500	$81	55
304 Main St	0.52mi	2/1.0	891 (-12%)	2mo	$135,250	$152	54
104 W Ionia St	0.52mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,096 (+8%)	5mo	$106,000	$97	50
201 N Warner St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	902 (-11%)	4mo	$95,000	$105	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,637
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $20,256
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,304/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,104

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 E Jane St Bay City, MI	1.0	1.0	754	$1,650	$2.19	44d	1	0.71mi
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.36mi
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	44d	1	1.37mi
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on marketlisting id $134,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   listing id $134,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $134,900 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $134,900 Pending 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,900 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $134,900 Active 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    Step into this nice 2 bedroom home featuring fresh paint, an inviting eat in kitchen, and a convenient pantry for extra storage. The spacious basement offers plenty of room for hobbies, storage, or future finishing. Enjoy outdoor living on the large deck overlooking a fully fenced backyard, perfect for pets or entertaining. A 1 car detached garage includes a workbench with gas and electric, ideal for projects year round. Major updates include a new roof and gutters in 2026, giving you peace of mind for years to come. Blocks away from the famous Bay City fireworks and Riverwalk. Call today for a showing,

17. 2026-05-28
    listed $134,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    Step into this nice 2 bedroom home featuring fresh paint, an inviting eat in kitchen, and a convenient pantry for extra storage. The spacious basement offers plenty of room for hobbies, storage, or future finishing. Enjoy outdoor living on the large deck overlooking a fully fenced backyard, perfect for pets or entertaining. A 1 car detached garage includes a workbench with gas and electric, ideal for projects year round. Major updates include a new roof and gutters in 2026, giving you peace of mind for years to come. Blocks away from the famous Bay City fireworks and Riverwalk. Call today for a showing,

18. 2006-03-11
    historical
19. 2005-09-11
    listed $81,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,691 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$387/yr (+$32/mo · 29.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,304
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,408
• − Management: −$1,408
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $1,324
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$318
• After-tax cash flow: $3,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+65.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $134,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-28 Listed $134,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-03-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-09-11 Listed $81,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,304 · -15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.