1653 Homer Ave · The Villages, FL 32162

$389,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,887 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2006 5,879 sqft lot Est $447k · 13% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location! Location! Location! Perfectly situated in the highly desirable Village of Sabal Chase, this Somerset model is located on quiet cul-de-sac with BOND PAID! Just minutes by golf cart to Sumter Landing Square. From live music nightly, to dining, shopping, and entertainment, everything you love is right at your fingertips. An abundance of golf courses, pools, restaurants, and shopping are all in very close proximity. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath "Somerset" Model offers a stucco exterior, extended 2 car garage, and immaculate landscaping that creates incredible curb appeal, and includes your own baking orange tree. Step inside to an open, spacious living area filled with natural lig

Key facts

• 5,879 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Gated community with community pool, fitness center, tennis, pickleball and racquetball courts, trails and sidewalks; Deed restrictions; Dog park; Golf and golf cart–friendly community; Street lights; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached oversized garage with 2 garage spaces and garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Northwest facing; CDD within the community; Homestead status
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area and living area per public records
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Screened porch; Rain gutters; Irrigation system; Cul-de-sac lot; Landscaped yard with mature landscaping and fruit trees; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room / dining room combo; Open floorplan; Tray ceilings; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry (washer and dryer included); Gas water heater; Inside utility / family room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $343k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,957/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.37%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $447,219
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
879 Astor Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,861 (-1%)	2mo	$335,000	$180	88
1637 Mount Croghan Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,887 (0%)	1mo	$457,500	$242	83
1615 Snelling Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,887 (0%)	0mo	$630,000	$334	79
1348 Honea Path	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,912 (+1%)	0mo	$434,000	$227	75
1398 Inman Mills Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,912 (+1%)	0mo	$420,000	$220	73
952 Talapia Loop	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,711 (-9%)	1mo	$355,000	$207	67
1607 Mount Croghan Trl	0.34mi	3/2.5	2,075 (+10%)	1mo	$525,000	$253	65
1466 Perry Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,927 (+2%)	2mo	$425,000	$221	63
565 Society Hill Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,899 (+1%)	2mo	$600,000	$316	63
1040 Dentsville Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,006 (+6%)	0mo	$370,000	$184	62
550 Little River Path	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,012 (+7%)	3mo	$720,000	$358	56
607 Reevesville Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,685 (-11%)	2mo	$400,000	$237	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-16,884
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $55,366
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,987/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$831
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,109

Max offer price $389,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $891	-5% $781	+0% $670	+5% $560	+10% $450
Rent	-10% $358	-5% $514	+0% $670	+5% $827	+10% $983
Rate	-1.0pp $867	-0.5pp $769	base $670	+0.5pp $569	+1.0pp $466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
898 Moses Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1911	$2,600	$1.36	22d	1	0.76mi
2111 Jem Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,800	$2.90	22d	1	0.90mi
470 Oboe Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,200	$1.77	22d	1	0.95mi
731 Baisley Trl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1512	$4,500	$2.98	22d	1	0.97mi
1315 Fort Lawn Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1392	$4,500	$3.23	22d	1	1.22mi
1623 Abernethy Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,800	$3.07	22d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $389,900 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,900 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,900 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,900 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,900 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,900 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,900 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,900 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,900 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $389,900 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $394,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $394,000 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $394,000 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $394,000 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $394,000
17. 2026-04-07
    price $399,000
18. 2026-03-18
    price $405,000
19. 2026-02-24
    price $415,000
20. 2026-01-23
    listed $425,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,987 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,236 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 8.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$2,987
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,799
• − Management: −$3,799
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable income: $1,770
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$425
• After-tax cash flow: $7,618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $394,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $405,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $415,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Listed $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,987 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.