2404 Burwell Ave · Louisville, KY 40210

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 1929 5,200 sqft lot Est $178k · 12% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next investment opportunity! This 3 bedroom , 1 bathroom home has been fully gutted and is ready for transformation. Sitting as a blank canvas, this property is ideal for investors, visionaries, or savvy homeowners looking to customize a space to their exact style and specifications. With ample square footage and flexible layout, there is great potential to add an additional bathroom and working spaces increasing both functionality and value. The bones are here , and the possibilities are endless-reimagine this space as a modern family home, a lucrative rental, or your next quick flip. Located in an emerging and commuter friendly neighborhood, this project is perfect for anyone seeking high return on investment.

Key facts

• Golden front door
• Brass fixtures
• Wood cabinetry

Tags

• GOLDEN FRONT DOOR
• WHITE STONE FIREPLACE
• NEW WINDOWS
• BRASS FIXTURES
• HANDCRAFTED GREEN TILE
• WOOD CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (34.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mcferran Preparatory Academy (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #670 of 676 statewide, top 100%, 691 students, 83% FRL); Carrithers Middle (math 10% / reading 36%, grade F, #197 of 217 statewide, top 92%, 583 students, 60% FRL); Iroquois High (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #245 of 254 statewide, top 97%, 1,090 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $200k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,776 (34.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.21%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,828
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2307 W Lee St	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+4%)	4mo	$172,000	$108	80
1458 Olive St	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (-5%)	2mo	$90,000	$62	70
1544 Catalpa St	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,596 (+4%)	1mo	$185,000	$116	69
1448 Catalpa St	0.45mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,507 (-2%)	1mo	$199,000	$132	68
1334 Cypress St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-3%)	2mo	$195,000	$131	67
1456 Beech St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,498 (-2%)	2mo	$130,000	$87	67
1415 S 28th St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-10%)	2mo	$190,000	$137	61
1624 Hemlock Ct	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,376 (-10%)	2mo	$32,500	$24	60
1752 Dixdale Ave	0.59mi	3/3.0	1,500 (-2%)	5mo	$189,000	$126	60
1533 Beech St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (+8%)	2mo	$120,000	$72	58
2107 Ratcliffe Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+11%)	5mo	$198,000	$116	53
1736 W Gaulbert Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,326 (-14%)	4mo	$53,600	$40	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $106,198
• Equity at exit: $180,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $337,151
• Equity at exit: $388,554

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40210

• Home prices YoY: 12.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $608/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,497

Max offer price $173,552

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36	-5% $-93	+0% $-150	+5% $-206	+10% $-263
Rent	-10% $-253	-5% $-201	+0% $-150	+5% $-98	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-49	-0.5pp $-99	base $-150	+0.5pp $-202	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1545 Catalpa St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1760	$1,545	$0.88	5d	1	0.31mi
2629 Olive St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	25d	1	0.41mi
1410 Standard Village Cir Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1200	$900	$0.75	25d	1	0.44mi
1622 Beech St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1108	$1,445	$1.30	17d	1	0.45mi
1618 S 30th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1896	$1,235	$0.65	17d	1	0.49mi
1774 Bolling Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1611	$1,300	$0.81	12d	1	0.54mi
2223 Saint Louis Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,175	$1.02	25d	1	0.58mi
1339 S 28th St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,175	$1.04	22d	1	0.59mi
1714 W Hill St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,045	$1.00	25d	1	0.68mi
1854 W Ormsby Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1094	$800	$0.73	17d	1	0.72mi
2913 Dumesnil St Apt 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1112	$740	$0.67	12d	1	0.75mi
3313 Penway Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1142	$1,645	$1.44	25d	1	0.76mi
2706 Hale Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	25d	1	0.83mi
2708 Greenwood Ave Apt 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	25d	1	1.03mi
1115 S 32nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1393	$1,275	$0.92	23d	1	1.05mi
1115 S 32nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1393	$1,275	$0.92	25d	1	1.05mi
2912 Greenwood Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,150	$0.84	17d	1	1.07mi
1705 1/2 Hale Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,400	$1.11	12d	1	1.08mi
2821 Greenwood Ave #1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,300	$1.17	25d	1	1.08mi
2825 Greenwood Ave #4 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,250	$0.87	25d	1	1.09mi
2825 Greenwood Ave #2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1300	$995	$0.77	25d	1	1.09mi
2711 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,100	$0.95	25d	1	1.16mi
1847 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1368	$895	$0.65	5d	1	1.19mi
1616 Gallagher St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1056	$1,400	$1.33	25d	1	1.20mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit A Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$940	$0.82	25d	1	1.21mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit B Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$895	$0.78	22d	1	1.21mi
2416 Garland Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,600	$1.37	25d	1	1.21mi
1244 Algonquin Pkwy Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1136	$1,400	$1.23	25d	1	1.25mi
3514 Grand Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1450	$1,295	$0.89	23d	1	1.27mi
848 S 23rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,450	$1.38	25d	1	1.32mi
1723 W Kentucky St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	25d	1	1.32mi
820 Hazel St Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,395	$0.75	4d	1	1.40mi
1161 Lincoln Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	1358	$1,150	$0.85	17d	1	1.49mi
814 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	5d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-01-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-07
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-12-10
   price $199,999
4. 2025-11-04
   listed $210,000 Active
5. 2025-05-14
   soldstatus $70,000 Closed 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Welcome to your next investment opportunity! This 3 bedroom , 1 bathroom home has been fully gutted and is ready for transformation. Sitting as a blank canvas, this property is ideal for investors, visionaries, or savvy homeowners looking to customize a space to their exact style and specifications. With ample square footage and flexible layout, there is great potential to add an additional bathroom and working spaces increasing both functionality and value. The bones are here , and the possibilities are endless-reimagine this space as a modern family home, a lucrative rental, or your next quick flip. Located in an emerging and commuter friendly neighborhood, this project is perfect for anyone seeking high return on investment.

6. 2025-05-14
   soldstatus $70,000

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Welcome to your next investment opportunity! This 3 bedroom , 1 bathroom home has been fully gutted and is ready for transformation. Sitting as a blank canvas, this property is ideal for investors, visionaries, or savvy homeowners looking to customize a space to their exact style and specifications. With ample square footage and flexible layout, there is great potential to add an additional bathroom and working spaces increasing both functionality and value. The bones are here , and the possibilities are endless-reimagine this space as a modern family home, a lucrative rental, or your next quick flip. Located in an emerging and commuter friendly neighborhood, this project is perfect for anyone seeking high return on investment.

7. 2025-05-12
   status Pending 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Welcome to your next investment opportunity! This 3 bedroom , 1 bathroom home has been fully gutted and is ready for transformation. Sitting as a blank canvas, this property is ideal for investors, visionaries, or savvy homeowners looking to customize a space to their exact style and specifications. With ample square footage and flexible layout, there is great potential to add an additional bathroom and working spaces increasing both functionality and value. The bones are here , and the possibilities are endless-reimagine this space as a modern family home, a lucrative rental, or your next quick flip. Located in an emerging and commuter friendly neighborhood, this project is perfect for anyone seeking high return on investment.

8. 2025-05-12
   historical Active Under Contract 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Welcome to your next investment opportunity! This 3 bedroom , 1 bathroom home has been fully gutted and is ready for transformation. Sitting as a blank canvas, this property is ideal for investors, visionaries, or savvy homeowners looking to customize a space to their exact style and specifications. With ample square footage and flexible layout, there is great potential to add an additional bathroom and working spaces increasing both functionality and value. The bones are here , and the possibilities are endless-reimagine this space as a modern family home, a lucrative rental, or your next quick flip. Located in an emerging and commuter friendly neighborhood, this project is perfect for anyone seeking high return on investment.

9. 2025-05-12
   listed $80,500 Active 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Welcome to your next investment opportunity! This 3 bedroom , 1 bathroom home has been fully gutted and is ready for transformation. Sitting as a blank canvas, this property is ideal for investors, visionaries, or savvy homeowners looking to customize a space to their exact style and specifications. With ample square footage and flexible layout, there is great potential to add an additional bathroom and working spaces increasing both functionality and value. The bones are here , and the possibilities are endless-reimagine this space as a modern family home, a lucrative rental, or your next quick flip. Located in an emerging and commuter friendly neighborhood, this project is perfect for anyone seeking high return on investment.

10. 2025-05-11
    historical
11. 2025-05-01
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2025-03-03
    price $85,500
13. 2024-12-11
    listed $90,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,112/yr (+$93/mo · 182.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$608
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,447
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,307
• After-tax cash flow: $-489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 13,518
• Household income: $35,347
• Rent vs Own: 56.0% rent · 44.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% White 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.45%
• Current HPI: 264.0146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.05%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+121.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-01-07 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $199,999 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $210,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-14 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-12 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-12 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-12 Listed $80,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-11 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-01 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $85,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-12-11 Listed $90,500 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $608 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.