1995 Essex Dr · Sumter, SC 29154

$194,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,371 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1998 7,405 sqft lot Est $208k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath duplex perfect for a starter home or those looking to downsize. Features new laminate flooring throughout and offers a convenient location close to shopping and dining.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Duplex / townhouse; One level
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a residential single-family residence
• Exterior features: Front porch; No additional exterior structures noted

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.4% in Sumter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#235 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter 01 (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #64 of 80 in SC (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Millwood Elementary (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #276 of 597 statewide, top 48%, 682 students, 100% FRL); Bates Middle (math 9% / reading 21%, grade F, #202 of 229 statewide, top 89%, 569 students, 100% FRL); Sumter High School (math 22% / reading 67%, grade F, #166 of 196 statewide, top 87%, 2,289 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 229 active listings in the ZIP; 386 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $195k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,359 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.57%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,392
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
375 Conifer St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-0%)	2mo	$211,000	$154	79
2115 Stillpointe Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,299 (-5%)	2mo	$225,000	$173	73
370 Acorn St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,299 (-5%)	5mo	$210,000	$162	72
394 Wildwood Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,251 (-9%)	3mo	$168,000	$134	70
352 Conifer St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,299 (-5%)	1mo	$212,000	$163	70
1807 Millwood Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+4%)	0mo	$185,000	$130	66
176 Curtiswood Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,486 (+8%)	3mo	$185,000	$124	66
80 Abbey Hall Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+10%)	4mo	$210,000	$139	60
1939 Millwood Rd	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,506 (+10%)	4mo	$175,000	$116	59
342 Acorn St	0.34mi	3/3.0	1,515 (+10%)	5mo	$235,000	$155	59
2125 Stillpointe Dr Dr	0.36mi	3/3.0	1,515 (+10%)	4mo	$230,000	$152	58
127 Curtiswood Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,561 (+14%)	0mo	$229,500	$147	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,315
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $18,133
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29154

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 229
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $926/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,494

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $194,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $194,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,900 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $194,900 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-03-20
    listed $194,900 Active
17. 2025-07-24
    historical $1,800
18. 2025-07-20
    listed $1,800
19. 2017-12-18
    soldstatus $105,000
20. 2008-07-28
    soldstatus $107,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $926 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,111 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 19.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$926
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,742
• − Management: −$1,742
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$46
• After-tax cash flow: $3,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter 01
• NCES district ID: 4503902
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,423
• Composite: 19.45/100
• National rank: #8775
• State rank: #64 of 80 in SC

Livability — Sumter

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #19754

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sumter, SC
• County: Sumter County · 76,912 people
• City population: 67,992
• Metro: Sumter, SC
• Population (ZIP): 29,454
• Household income: $62,772
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,585 people
• By 2030: 102,282 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 96,258 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 89,592 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 74,715 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 60,235 · -42.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 36% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.9% · R 47.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: 15.4pp · 2024: 4.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.9 2020: D+13.0 2016: D+12.0 2012: D+17.5 2008: D+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.65%
• Current HPI: 157.8545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Sumter, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+82.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $194,900 SBOR
• 2025-07-24 Rental Removed $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-07-20 Listed for Rent $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2017-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2008-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $926 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.