8873 Holly Ave · California City, CA 93505

$269,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,639 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1990 9,583 sqft lot $165/sqft · 12% below area Est $308k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing Home located in a very nice and quiet neighborhood offering 3 beds 2 full bath ,

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-767/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hacienda Elementary (528 students, 92% FRL); California City Middle (501 students, 87% FRL); California City High (655 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 704 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $270k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,515 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,518
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -12.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8873 Holly	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,639 (0%)	0mo	$260,000	$159	100
8633 Hickory Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,731 (+6%)	2mo	$355,000	$205	72
20300 89th St	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,731 (+6%)	2mo	$334,000	$193	70
20325 94th St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,669 (+2%)	3mo	$285,000	$171	69
8348 Fernwood Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,577 (-4%)	2mo	$255,000	$162	68
8400 Dogwood Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-6%)	3mo	$300,000	$195	64
9348 S loop Blvd	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (+5%)	1mo	$353,000	$204	62
8348 Lime	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-6%)	1mo	$265,150	$173	59
8825 Xavier Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+8%)	1mo	$270,000	$152	58
8325 Jacarada	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (-6%)	3mo	$299,990	$194	55
8925 Oleander	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+10%)	2mo	$250,000	$139	54
20349 90th St	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,858 (+13%)	2mo	$380,000	$205	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $148,248
• Equity at exit: $243,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $451,708
• Equity at exit: $524,356

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 704
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,579/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,206

Max offer price $258,612

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $12	+0% $-64	+5% $-140	+10% $-217
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-148	+0% $-64	+5% $20	+10% $104
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $5	base $-64	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8801 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,600	$1.69	25d	1	0.06mi
8651 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	5d	1	0.28mi
20321 88th St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,100	$1.79	25d	1	0.28mi
9213 Holly Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,900	$1.42	5d	1	0.35mi
8648 Lime Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1459	$2,400	$1.64	25d	1	0.39mi
20312 Dean Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1742	$1,975	$1.13	16d	1	0.41mi
8848 Oleander Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,900	$1.46	25d	1	0.49mi
8560 Nipa Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,850	$1.41	16d	1	0.55mi
20673 Medio St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,075	$1.23	25d	1	0.56mi
20001 Airway Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,400	$2.29	25d	1	0.60mi
9225 Peach Ave Unit A California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	25d	1	0.64mi
8816 Fuchsia Ave Unit PASSTHROUGH B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,550	$1.44	16d	1	0.64mi
21231 Corwin St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	25d	1	0.67mi
20961 83rd St Unit 6 California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	25d	1	0.67mi
8100 Fernwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,850	$1.38	25d	1	0.77mi
8160 Kalmia Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,795	$1.41	25d	1	0.79mi
9000 Underwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,900	$1.23	0d	1	0.81mi
20300 Graham St California City, CA	4.0	2.5	2016	$2,150	$1.07	25d	1	0.81mi
8512 Tamarack Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,875	$1.25	25d	1	0.82mi
9610 Oleander Ave Unit A California City, CA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,575	$1.21	25d	1	0.83mi
20425 81st St California City, CA	4.0	3.0	2215	$2,900	$1.31	21d	1	0.85mi
8449 Viburnum Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,695	$1.39	1d	1	0.94mi
8312 Tamarack Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1539	$1,900	$1.23	25d	1	0.95mi
8260 Viburnum Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,000	$1.49	4d	1	1.05mi
21032 79th St California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1228	$2,100	$1.71	25d	1	1.07mi
8173 Viburnum Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,150	$1.45	4d	1	1.07mi
8124 Underwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,850	$1.23	25d	1	1.12mi
8849 Glade Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,380	$1.50	12d	1	1.12mi
9524 Sally Ave Unit C California City, CA	2.0	1.5	1140	$1,300	$1.14	25d	1	1.15mi
9548 Sally Ave Unit B California City, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	25d	1	1.17mi
9931 Putter Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,675	$1.16	5d	1	1.24mi
21235 Windsong St California City, CA	3.0	3.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	25d	1	1.25mi
21187 Conklin Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,800	$1.22	16d	1	1.27mi
9019 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,600	$1.50	5d	1	1.30mi
7733 Walpole Ave Unit A California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	25d	1	1.30mi
21319 Conklin Ct California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1816	$2,200	$1.21	45d	1	1.35mi
8307 Charles Pl California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,750	$1.17	16d	1	1.43mi
8332 Rea Ave California City, CA	4.0	3.0	1861	$2,500	$1.34	5d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 88-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on marketlisting id $269,900 Pending 89 DOM
3. 2026-05-16
   status Pending Sale
4. 2026-05-09
   price $269,900
5. 2026-04-07
   price $269,900 88-char remark

   Show marketing remark (88 chars)

   Amazing Home located in a very nice and quiet neighborhood offering 3 beds 2 full bath ,

6. 2026-03-06
   listed $284,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (88 chars)

   Amazing Home located in a very nice and quiet neighborhood offering 3 beds 2 full bath ,

7. 2026-03-06
   listed $284,900 Active 88-char remark

   Show marketing remark (88 chars)

   Amazing Home located in a very nice and quiet neighborhood offering 3 beds 2 full bath ,

8. 2026-02-28
   historical
9. 2026-02-03
   price $289,900
10. 2026-02-02
    price $289,900
11. 2025-12-05
    listed $294,900 Active
12. 2020-09-02
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed
13. 2020-09-02
    soldstatus $175,000
14. 2020-06-03
    status Pending
15. 2020-06-01
    listed $179,900 Active
16. 1990-01-22
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,579 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,579 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,579
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$5,477
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,315
• After-tax cash flow: $548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+199.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $269,900 CRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $269,900 AVMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $284,900 AVMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $284,900 CRMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $289,900 AVMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $289,900 CRMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $294,900 CRMLS
• 2020-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-02 Sold (MLS) $175,000 AVMLS
• 2020-06-03 Pending — AVMLS
• 2020-06-01 Listed $179,900 AVMLS
• 1990-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,579 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.