2910 Byron Ct · Bel Air South, MD 21009

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1983 5,114 sqft lot $115/sqft · 58% below area $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$150,000.00 LIST PRICE SUGGESTED OPENING BID AT AUCTION. * * * * NO PRE BID * * * * AUCTION Friday May 15th, 2026 @ 11:00 AM ON PREMISES. Broker/agent registration form is available upon request and must be in the hands of Jay Edwards Auctioneers 48 hours prior to the auction. Enter from front entrance to entry foyer w/ hardwood appearance flooring & coat closet. Powder room. Living room/dining room combo w/ wall-to- wall carpet. Country kitchen w/ refrigerator, electric stove, dishwasher, & utility room w/ heat & air return. Laundry room w/ apt. style washer & dryer. Sliders exit to rear yard from kitchen. Kitchen has additional exit to front. Attached storage closet at rear. Walk upstairs to linen closet. Full bathroom. BR #1 w/ closets. BR #2 w/ closet and ceiling fan. BR #3 or primary w/ closets, ceiling fan, vanity sink w/ mirror, & walk in closet w/ attic access. Wall-to-wall carpet throughout. Primary BR has access to full bath in hallway. Heat pump. Central air. Public water & sewer. Community pool available w/ optional annual membership fee.

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Utility room
• Laundry room

Tags

• ENTRY FOYER
• HARDWOOD APPEARANCE FLOORING
• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• UTILITY ROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• SLIDERS EXIT TO REAR YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $695 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.1% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $150k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.76%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,459
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -57.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2907 Byron Ct	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,304 (0%)	8mo	$330,500	$253	89
26 Huxley Cir	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,304 (0%)	20mo	$318,000	$244	69
2901 Auden Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,170 (-10%)	18mo	$347,000	$297	61
2943 Strathaven Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+7%)	11mo	$350,000	$251	61
2608 Laurel Valley Garth	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,274 (-2%)	3mo	$330,000	$259	60
109 Holly Wreath Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+1%)	1mo	$379,000	$287	59
2900 Silver Spruce Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+8%)	10mo	$425,000	$302	59
604 Hookers Mill Rd	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,284 (-2%)	16mo	$390,000	$304	48
2802 Merrick Way	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,494 (+15%)	8mo	$410,000	$274	48
2623 Laurel Valley Garth	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,386 (+6%)	16mo	$400,770	$289	45
2614 Laurel Valley Garth	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+7%)	16mo	$375,000	$269	42
2703 Long Meadow Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,494 (+15%)	17mo	$378,000	$253	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $30,084
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $128,362
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21009

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,321 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,406/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $695

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,441

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2814 Meredith Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,300	$1.74	24d	1	0.20mi
3103 Cardinal Way Unit 1 Abingdon, MD	2.0	1.0	976	$1,800	$1.84	17d	1	0.41mi
158 Glen View Ter Abingdon, MD	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,995	$1.70	17d	1	0.62mi
307L Tall Pines Ct Unit L Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,399	$1.85	14d	1	0.65mi
129 Long Meadow Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$2,200	$1.77	43d	1	0.66mi
2509 Merrick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	43d	1	0.71mi
3361 Cheverly Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,195	$1.46	43d	1	0.74mi
493 Ashton Ln Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,250	$1.28	24d	1	0.97mi
3405 McCurley Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1263	$3,264	$2.58	1d	29	1.02mi
618 Milford Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,450	$1.59	24d	1	1.04mi
618 Milford Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,450	$1.59	4d	1	1.04mi
546 Kirkcaldy Way Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1520	$2,350	$1.55	43d	1	1.15mi
102 Waldon Rd Abingdon, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	794	$1,675	$2.11	1d	38	1.18mi
499 Crisfield Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$2,020	$2.25	1d	11	1.30mi
499 Crisfield Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$2,309	$2.57	43d	20	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerelectricpool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1108 chars)

   $150,000.00 LIST PRICE SUGGESTED OPENING BID AT AUCTION. * * * * NO PRE BID * * * * AUCTION Friday May 15th, 2026 @ 11:00 AM ON PREMISES. Broker/agent registration form is available upon request and must be in the hands of Jay Edwards Auctioneers 48 hours prior to the auction. Enter from front entrance to entry foyer w/ hardwood appearance flooring & coat closet. Powder room. Living room/dining room combo w/ wall-to- wall carpet. Country kitchen w/ refrigerator, electric stove, dishwasher, & utility room w/ heat & air return. Laundry room w/ apt. style washer & dryer. Sliders exit to rear yard from kitchen. Kitchen has additional exit to front. Attached storage closet at rear. Walk upstairs to linen closet. Full bathroom. BR #1 w/ closets. BR #2 w/ closet and ceiling fan. BR #3 or primary w/ closets, ceiling fan, vanity sink w/ mirror, & walk in closet w/ attic access. Wall-to-wall carpet throughout. Primary BR has access to full bath in hallway. Heat pump. Central air. Public water & sewer. Community pool available w/ optional annual membership fee.

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $150,000 Active 1108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1108 chars)

   $150,000.00 LIST PRICE SUGGESTED OPENING BID AT AUCTION. * * * * NO PRE BID * * * * AUCTION Friday May 15th, 2026 @ 11:00 AM ON PREMISES. Broker/agent registration form is available upon request and must be in the hands of Jay Edwards Auctioneers 48 hours prior to the auction. Enter from front entrance to entry foyer w/ hardwood appearance flooring & coat closet. Powder room. Living room/dining room combo w/ wall-to- wall carpet. Country kitchen w/ refrigerator, electric stove, dishwasher, & utility room w/ heat & air return. Laundry room w/ apt. style washer & dryer. Sliders exit to rear yard from kitchen. Kitchen has additional exit to front. Attached storage closet at rear. Walk upstairs to linen closet. Full bathroom. BR #1 w/ closets. BR #2 w/ closet and ceiling fan. BR #3 or primary w/ closets, ceiling fan, vanity sink w/ mirror, & walk in closet w/ attic access. Wall-to-wall carpet throughout. Primary BR has access to full bath in hallway. Heat pump. Central air. Public water & sewer. Community pool available w/ optional annual membership fee.

3. 1983-06-02
   soldstatus $59,990
4. 1983-01-13
   soldstatus $240,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,406 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,406 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,406
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,228
• − Management: −$2,228
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $6,408
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,538
• After-tax cash flow: $6,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $121,660
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.25%
• Current HPI: 251.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.12%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-37.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1983-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $59,990 Public Records
• 1983-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,406 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.