2628 Bristow Rd · Lewisburg, TN 38401

$219,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1996 2.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2.2 Acres w/ 3 bdrm 2 ba home. Deck on front and back. Detached 2 car garage w/concrete floor and electricity. Island in kitchen. Dishwasher, Jenn-air drop in cooktop, built-in oven. Woodburning fireplace. Vaulted ceilings. Garden tub in master bath

Key facts

• 2.2 acres
• Detached garage
• Concrete floor

Tags

• 2.2 ACRES
• DETACHED GARAGE
• CONCRETE FLOOR
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Residential manufactured home on land; One story
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Lot size about 2.2 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level) — approx. 10x12, 10x11, 10x12
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric oven; Wood and laminate flooring; Great Room fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($781/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lewisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#284 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Northfield Academy (99 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1129 active listings in the ZIP; 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $219k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,177 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-27,947
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,467
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1129
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $760/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,649

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $127	+0% $65	+5% $3	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $-3	+0% $65	+5% $133	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $121	base $65	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 194-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $219,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,555 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$795/yr (+$66/mo · 104.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$760
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$3,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$729
• After-tax cash flow: $1,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lewisburg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #20031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maury County · 121,382 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2026.0

Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+236.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $219,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-11 Sold (MLS) $65,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-21 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-18 Listed $65,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $760 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.