PONDEROSA Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$304,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,057 sqft · SingleFamily · 189 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Ponderosa! This modern plan offers an open main-floor layout, featuring an airy great room overlooking a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. A powder bath is conveniently located on this level. The primary suite is upstairs, showcasing a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. There are three additional bedrooms on the second floor, as well as another bath and a versatile loft space waiting to be transformed. Includes a 2-bay garage. Options: Covered patio

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Dining area
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN MAIN-FLOOR LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $304,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $353,559.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,559
• List price: $304,990
• Delta: -13.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26222 Venus Trap Trl	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-2%)	1mo	$339,900	$169	88
4623 Padbury Manor Ct	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,130 (+4%)	9mo	$349,000	$164	56
25235 Benroe St	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,124 (+3%)	20mo	$347,000	$163	54
25531 Camilla Mae Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,277 (+11%)	0mo	$329,500	$145	46
5111 Bluebird Song Ln	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,110 (+3%)	23mo	$351,227	$166	46
5202 Katy Hockley Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,158 (+5%)	6mo	$3,000,000	$1,390	45
25307 Ashbourne Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,780 (-14%)	13mo	$299,995	$169	42
5123 Bluebird Song Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,948 (-5%)	21mo	$319,319	$164	38
5046 Bluebird Song Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,900 (-8%)	22mo	$325,543	$171	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-80,603
• Equity at exit: $52,717

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-121,168
• Equity at exit: $30,569

Cash invested: $98,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,791 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,854
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$442 /mo · $5,303/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,093

Max offer price $319,086

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,390
• Closing costs: $10,607
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5006 Sunway Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2550	$2,500	$0.98	43d	1	0.77mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	1d	16	0.98mi
5835 Big Bluestem Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2890	$2,406	$0.83	43d	1	1.32mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	1d	25	1.33mi
24938 Pavarotti Pl Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2839	$2,450	$0.86	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,990 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,990 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,990 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,990 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,990 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,990 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $304,990 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $304,990 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $304,990 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,990 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,990 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,990 Active 171 DOM
13. 2025-12-12
    listed $319,990 Active 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    Welcome to the Ponderosa! This modern plan offers an open main-floor layout, featuring an airy great room overlooking a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. A powder bath is conveniently located on this level. The primary suite is upstairs, showcasing a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. There are three additional bedrooms on the second floor, as well as another bath and a versatile loft space waiting to be transformed. Includes a 2-bay garage. Options: Covered patio

14. 2025-12-12
    listed $319,990 Active 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    Welcome to the Ponderosa! This modern plan offers an open main-floor layout, featuring an airy great room overlooking a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. A powder bath is conveniently located on this level. The primary suite is upstairs, showcasing a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. There are three additional bedrooms on the second floor, as well as another bath and a versatile loft space waiting to be transformed. Includes a 2-bay garage. Options: Covered patio

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,805
• − Property taxes: −$5,303
• − Insurance: −$1,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,680
• − Management: −$2,680
• − Depreciation: −$10,285
• Taxable loss: −$9,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,166
• After-tax cash flow: $-693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern layout and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these spaces can increase the home's value and attract more buyers or renters.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract more renters and reduce utility costs.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can attract more buyers and renters and increase the home's value.
• Both Interior lighting upgrades — Upgrading lighting can make the home more attractive and energy-efficient, increasing its value and rental appeal.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these spaces can increase the home's value and attract more buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these spaces can increase the home's value and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract more renters and reduce utility costs. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can attract more buyers and renters and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Interior lighting upgrades — Upgrading lighting can make the home more attractive and energy-efficient, increasing its value and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these spaces can increase the home's value and attract more buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Listed $319,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Listed $319,990 Zillow