438 Winsor St · Jamestown, NY 14701

$24,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1896 3,180 sqft lot $17/sqft · 80% below area ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Two family property in need of some TLC. Home is situated on the Northside of Jamestown. Exterior is vinyl sided with many windows replaced. Interior was started but never finished. Being offered at a low price point. Sold as is!

Key facts

• Vinyl sided
• Two family property
• 3,180 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO FAMILY PROPERTY
• VINYL SIDED
• MANY WINDOWS REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tenant pays all utilities; Operating expenses include maintenance structure

Exterior

• Parking: No driveway
• Utilities: Public water available (not connected); Sewer available; Separate gas meters for each unit (2); Separate electric meters for each unit (2)
• Home design: Two-story property; Resale property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Irregular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 53

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes an eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units (each unit has 2 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies by area
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 full bathroom (2 full bathrooms total)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Partial basement; Carpet and vinyl flooring with some areas varying
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive. Per door: $612/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 67.5% vs local median 16.6% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#470 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime F.
• Jamestown City School District (town): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #553 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $166 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $720 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price; built in 1896 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $23,280 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1896 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 67.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 218.62%
• DSCR: 10.73
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,617
• List price: $24,000
• Delta: -79.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
217 Fulton St	0.29mi	4/3.0	1,332 (-6%)	23mo	$65,000	$49	53
149 Thayer St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (+12%)	14mo	$85,000	$54	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.03×
• Total profit: $74,155
• Equity at exit: $3,578

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.59×
• Total profit: $165,260
• Equity at exit: $2,075

Cash invested: $6,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14701

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,846 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$126
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,179/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $1,224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $296

Max offer price $24,000

Occupancy floor 29%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,846
Total (2 units)			$1,846

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,000
• Closing costs: $720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Maple St Jamestown, NY	3.0	1.0	1424	$1,350	$0.95	43d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $24,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $24,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $24,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $24,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $24,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $24,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $24,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $24,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $24,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $24,000 229-char remark
17. 2026-05-02
    listed $27,500 Active 229-char remark
18. 2026-01-19
    historical
19. 2025-10-13
    price $31,000
20. 2025-07-22
    listed $35,000 Active
21. 2013-11-05
    listed $23,450
22. 2012-09-28
    listed $25,500
23. 2012-09-28
    listed $25,500
24. 2011-09-20
    listed $25,500
25. 1998-06-04
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,344
• − Property taxes: −$1,179
• − Insurance: −$120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,772
• − Management: −$1,772
• − Depreciation: −$698
• Taxable income: $15,266
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,664
• After-tax cash flow: $11,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jamestown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615630
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,240
• Composite: 30.69/100
• National rank: #6176
• State rank: #553 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #8213

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, NY
• County: Chautauqua County · 38,461 people
• City population: 38,461
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,461
• Household income: $49,685
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1838.0

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.93%
• Current HPI: 259.402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $24,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $27,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-19 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $31,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $35,000 UNYREIS
• 2013-11-05 Listed $23,450 UNYREIS
• 2012-09-28 Listed $25,500 UNYREIS
• 2012-09-28 Listed $25,500 UNYREIS
• 2011-09-20 Listed $25,500 UNYREIS
• 1998-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,179 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.