1127 Avenue J · Haines City, FL 33844

$284,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2022 4,809 sqft lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Modern, energy-smart, and move-in ready, this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the perfect combination of style, efficiency, and location. Built in 2022, the residence features a bright, open-concept floor plan designed for today’s lifestyle, with durable tile flooring throughout the main living areas and elegant stone countertops that add a polished, contemporary touch. The kitchen serves as the true centerpiece of the home, showcasing stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and ample cabinetry, all seamlessly connected to the dining and living spaces—ideal for entertaining or everyday living. Thoughtful design and natural flow make the home fee

Key facts

• Stone countertops
• Ample cabinetry
• Tile flooring

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• TILE FLOORING
• STONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Zoned 0100
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated; Tax info available (not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Southwest facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built using public records living area 1,395 sq ft (building area 1,785 sq ft)
• Exterior features: Asphalt/paved road access; Lot approximately 0.11 acre (0.0 to less than 1/4 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-792/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,781 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-54,355
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-68,517
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,705/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,221

Max offer price $273,242

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $15	+0% $-66	+5% $-147	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-235	-5% $-150	+0% $-66	+5% $18	+10% $103
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $6	base $-66	+0.5pp $-140	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1125 Avenue L Unit L Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,300	$1.54	24d	1	0.06mi
1016 Avenue A Unit A Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1282	$1,875	$1.46	15d	1	0.40mi
2487 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,000	$1.23	24d	1	0.48mi
2492 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	15d	1	0.48mi
2492 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	24d	1	0.48mi
2474 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.51mi
2117 Winger Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	24d	1	0.59mi
3087 Barbados Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1546	$2,500	$1.62	15d	1	0.59mi
425 Hammerstone Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,796	$1.24	14d	1	0.66mi
1140 Mariner Cay Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,200	$1.95	24d	1	0.67mi
2896 Kokomo Loop Unit 1259817P Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1119	$6,692	$5.98	19d	1	0.68mi
566 Pawnee Ct Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,995	$1.33	24d	1	0.69mi
2628 Hemingway Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1637	$2,200	$1.34	15d	1	0.70mi
1115 Mariner Cay Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	24d	1	0.71mi
504 N 7th St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,870	$1.43	3d	1	0.74mi
2301 Paulette Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,150	$1.38	19d	1	0.74mi
849 Sheen Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1769	$1,850	$1.05	24d	1	0.77mi
2972 Kokomo Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,900	$1.68	24d	1	0.78mi
2984 Kokomo Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1728	$3,900	$2.26	24d	1	0.80mi
8013 Hemingway Cir #8013 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	0.90mi
8009 Hemingway Cir Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,399	$1.21	24d	1	0.90mi
2393 Paulette Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,875	$1.21	3d	1	0.93mi
6003 Hemingway Cir #6003 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,550	$1.35	24d	1	0.93mi
6004 Hemingway Cir #6004 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$2,150	$1.87	24d	1	0.93mi
6016 Hemingway Cir Unit 6016 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,500	$1.30	24d	1	0.94mi
1931 Trinity Cir Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,500	$0.91	24d	1	1.11mi
963 E Main St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1545	$1,700	$1.10	15d	1	1.11mi
4466 Hummingbird Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1547	$2,200	$1.42	3d	1	1.18mi
487 Eaglecrest Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,150	$1.52	24d	1	1.22mi
106 Reineke Rd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,495	$1.11	3d	1	1.36mi
522 Pentas Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1749	$2,200	$1.26	24d	1	1.36mi
2380 Sanderling St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1694	$2,300	$1.36	24d	1	1.42mi
666 Persian Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,000	$1.27	24d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $284,900 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,900 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $284,900 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $284,900 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,900 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,900 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,900 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-01-22
    listed $284,900 Active
15. 2025-03-03
    historical
16. 2025-01-03
    listed $285,000 Active
17. 2024-04-04
    historical
18. 2023-08-11
    price $330,000
19. 2023-08-11
    status Active
20. 2023-08-11
    historical
21. 2023-07-20
    listed $330,000 Active
22. 2023-06-27
    historical
23. 2023-04-14
    price $295,000
24. 2023-04-04
    listed $310,000 Active
25. 2022-06-21
    soldstatus $290,000 Closed
26. 2022-05-25
    status Pending
27. 2022-05-17
    price $295,000
28. 2022-05-15
    price $300,000
29. 2022-05-04
    price $290,000
30. 2022-05-03
    price $280,000
31. 2022-04-05
    price $319,500
32. 2022-04-04
    status Active
33. 2022-03-24
    status Pending
34. 2022-02-07
    listed $308,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,705 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,365 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$659/yr (+$55/mo · 38.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$1,705
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$5,827
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,399
• After-tax cash flow: $607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Listed $284,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-03 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-11 Price Changed $330,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-20 Listed $330,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-14 Price Changed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-04 Listed $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-21 Sold (MLS) $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-17 Price Changed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-15 Price Changed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-04 Price Changed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-03 Price Changed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-05 Price Changed $319,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-07 Listed $308,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+58.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,705 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.