11338 Amber Ridge Dr · Zellwood, FL 32798

$389,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,626 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2023 5,500 sqft lot $66/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Short Sale. Make an Offer. .Welcome to 11338 Amber Ridge Drive, located in Westridge Park, a sought-after community in Zellwood, offering small-town character and proximity to the historic Zellwood Corn Festival grounds, along with nearby shopping, dining, and major transportation routes. This expansive five-bedroom, three-bath Hayden floor plan offers a refined balance of space, functionality, and modern design. The second level features four well-appointed bedrooms, including a generous primary suite with two oversized walk-in closets and a spa-inspired bath with dual vanities. A spacious loft provides flexibility for a media room, home office, or s

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Community amenities
• Pool and playground

Tags

• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL AND PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#248 in FL, #3,918 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, health & safety D-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Zellwood Elementary (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 493 students, 55% FRL); Wolf Lake Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,194 students, 45% FRL); Apopka High (math 19% / reading 47%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 3,507 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $318,228 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.89%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $14,378
• Equity at exit: $164,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $95,865
• Equity at exit: $244,840

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32798

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$599 /mo · $7,190/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$66
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $-353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,629

Max offer price $326,600

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-133	-5% $-243	+0% $-353	+5% $-463	+10% $-573
Rent	-10% $-605	-5% $-479	+0% $-353	+5% $-228	+10% $-102
Rate	-1.0pp $-157	-0.5pp $-254	base $-353	+0.5pp $-454	+1.0pp $-557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11338 Amber Ridge Dr Zellwood, FL	5.0	3.0	2674	$3,200	$1.20	0d	1	0.03mi
2796 Grassmoor Loop Apopka, FL	4.0	2.0	2365	$2,636	$1.11	0d	1	1.35mi
4067 Meandering Bay Dr Apopka, FL	5.0	3.5	3544	$3,890	$1.10	16d	1	1.37mi
2407 Palmetto Ridge Cir Apopka, FL	4.0	2.0	1885	$2,800	$1.49	19d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $66 · $792/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-23
   price $389,000
3. 2026-01-23
   price $399,000
4. 2025-12-12
   listed $410,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,190 · $599/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,190 · $599/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$7,190
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,055
• − Management: −$3,055
• − HOA: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$10,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,630
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zellwood

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #248
• US rank: #3918

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zellwood, FL
• City population: 2,159
• Population (ZIP): 2,159

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 254.7681
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $389,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Listed $410,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+128.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,190 · -9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.