25314 Hickory Valley Ln · Spring, TX 77373

$230,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1971 8,908 sqft lot $145/sqft · at area comps Est $235k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to comfort, convenience, and classic Spring charm! Ideally located in an established, tree-lined neighborhood, this home offers quick access to some of Spring’s popular destinations. Old Town Spring is just about 3.5 miles away, featuring boutique shopping, local dining, seasonal festivals, and a lively small-town atmosphere. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being only approximately 2.5 miles from Pundt Park,with scenic walking trails, picnic areas, and access to Spring Creek. The nearby Spring Creek Greenbelt/Greenway Park is also approximately 2.5 miles away, providing miles of trails for biking, hiking, and kayaking—perfect for an active lifestyle or peaceful weekend escapes. With its prime location close to shopping, dining, recreation, and major roadways, this home delivers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Whether you’re enjoying a day outdoors or an evening in Old Town Spring, everything you love is just minutes from your front door.

Key facts

• New exterior paint
• Wooded neighborhood
• New receptacles

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• WOODED NEIGHBORHOOD
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW RECEPTACLES
• NEW LIGHT SWITCHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John Winship El (math 29% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 471 students, 72% FRL); Twin Creeks Middle (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 973 students, 83% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.46%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,998
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -2.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25206 Lynbriar Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+2%)	15mo	$240,000	$149	67
2006 Brixham Bluff Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-6%)	1mo	$230,000	$153	58
25803 Wingfield Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+10%)	9mo	$249,500	$143	45
2030 Lexington Woods Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+10%)	21mo	$205,000	$118	42
2506 Soledad Ridge Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,759 (+11%)	16mo	$259,990	$148	40
25711 Long Hill Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,737 (+9%)	18mo	$275,000	$158	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-35,660
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-46,504
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 603
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,776/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,200

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $262	-5% $197	+0% $132	+5% $67	+10% $2
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $39	+0% $132	+5% $226	+10% $319
Rate	-1.0pp $248	-0.5pp $191	base $132	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    status Active 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    Welcome home to comfort, convenience, and classic Spring charm! Ideally located in an established, tree-lined neighborhood, this home offers quick access to some of Spring’s popular destinations. Old Town Spring is just about 3.5 miles away, featuring boutique shopping, local dining, seasonal festivals, and a lively small-town atmosphere. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being only approximately 2.5 miles from Pundt Park,with scenic walking trails, picnic areas, and access to Spring Creek. The nearby Spring Creek Greenbelt/Greenway Park is also approximately 2.5 miles away, providing miles of trails for biking, hiking, and kayaking—perfect for an active lifestyle or peaceful weekend escapes. With its prime location close to shopping, dining, recreation, and major roadways, this home delivers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Whether you’re enjoying a day outdoors or an evening in Old Town Spring, everything you love is just minutes from your front door.

17. 2026-04-06
    status Pending 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    Welcome home to comfort, convenience, and classic Spring charm! Ideally located in an established, tree-lined neighborhood, this home offers quick access to some of Spring’s popular destinations. Old Town Spring is just about 3.5 miles away, featuring boutique shopping, local dining, seasonal festivals, and a lively small-town atmosphere. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being only approximately 2.5 miles from Pundt Park,with scenic walking trails, picnic areas, and access to Spring Creek. The nearby Spring Creek Greenbelt/Greenway Park is also approximately 2.5 miles away, providing miles of trails for biking, hiking, and kayaking—perfect for an active lifestyle or peaceful weekend escapes. With its prime location close to shopping, dining, recreation, and major roadways, this home delivers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Whether you’re enjoying a day outdoors or an evening in Old Town Spring, everything you love is just minutes from your front door.

18. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    Welcome home to comfort, convenience, and classic Spring charm! Ideally located in an established, tree-lined neighborhood, this home offers quick access to some of Spring’s popular destinations. Old Town Spring is just about 3.5 miles away, featuring boutique shopping, local dining, seasonal festivals, and a lively small-town atmosphere. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being only approximately 2.5 miles from Pundt Park,with scenic walking trails, picnic areas, and access to Spring Creek. The nearby Spring Creek Greenbelt/Greenway Park is also approximately 2.5 miles away, providing miles of trails for biking, hiking, and kayaking—perfect for an active lifestyle or peaceful weekend escapes. With its prime location close to shopping, dining, recreation, and major roadways, this home delivers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Whether you’re enjoying a day outdoors or an evening in Old Town Spring, everything you love is just minutes from your front door.

19. 2026-04-02
    status Pending 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    Welcome home to comfort, convenience, and classic Spring charm! Ideally located in an established, tree-lined neighborhood, this home offers quick access to some of Spring’s popular destinations. Old Town Spring is just about 3.5 miles away, featuring boutique shopping, local dining, seasonal festivals, and a lively small-town atmosphere. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being only approximately 2.5 miles from Pundt Park,with scenic walking trails, picnic areas, and access to Spring Creek. The nearby Spring Creek Greenbelt/Greenway Park is also approximately 2.5 miles away, providing miles of trails for biking, hiking, and kayaking—perfect for an active lifestyle or peaceful weekend escapes. With its prime location close to shopping, dining, recreation, and major roadways, this home delivers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Whether you’re enjoying a day outdoors or an evening in Old Town Spring, everything you love is just minutes from your front door.

20. 2026-03-21
    status Pending 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    Welcome home to comfort, convenience, and classic Spring charm! Ideally located in an established, tree-lined neighborhood, this home offers quick access to some of Spring’s popular destinations. Old Town Spring is just about 3.5 miles away, featuring boutique shopping, local dining, seasonal festivals, and a lively small-town atmosphere. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being only approximately 2.5 miles from Pundt Park,with scenic walking trails, picnic areas, and access to Spring Creek. The nearby Spring Creek Greenbelt/Greenway Park is also approximately 2.5 miles away, providing miles of trails for biking, hiking, and kayaking—perfect for an active lifestyle or peaceful weekend escapes. With its prime location close to shopping, dining, recreation, and major roadways, this home delivers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Whether you’re enjoying a day outdoors or an evening in Old Town Spring, everything you love is just minutes from your front door.

21. 2026-02-08
    listed $230,000 Active 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    Welcome home to comfort, convenience, and classic Spring charm! Ideally located in an established, tree-lined neighborhood, this home offers quick access to some of Spring’s popular destinations. Old Town Spring is just about 3.5 miles away, featuring boutique shopping, local dining, seasonal festivals, and a lively small-town atmosphere. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being only approximately 2.5 miles from Pundt Park,with scenic walking trails, picnic areas, and access to Spring Creek. The nearby Spring Creek Greenbelt/Greenway Park is also approximately 2.5 miles away, providing miles of trails for biking, hiking, and kayaking—perfect for an active lifestyle or peaceful weekend escapes. With its prime location close to shopping, dining, recreation, and major roadways, this home delivers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Whether you’re enjoying a day outdoors or an evening in Old Town Spring, everything you love is just minutes from your front door.

22. 2001-08-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,776 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,776 · $398/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$4,776
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,273
• − Management: −$2,273
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$2,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$502
• After-tax cash flow: $2,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2001-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,776 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.