Queensland III B Plan · Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$252,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,738 sqft · SingleFamily · 399 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Queensland III B by DSLD Homes, a beautifully designed new construction home offering 1,738 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space. Built with Energy Star Certified efficiency, this home blends comfort, style, and sustainability perfect for modern families looking for a smart investment in their future. The open floor plan creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas, providing the ideal layout for entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen features elegant recessed can lighting, modern finishes, and plenty of counter space to make meal preparation a joy. A convenient boot bench in the drop zone helps keep things tidy and organized as you enter from the two-car garage. The Queensland III B includes four spacious bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, offering both privacy and convenience for family members and guests. The master suite serves as a peaceful retreat, featuring a double vanity, a relaxing garden tub, a separate walk-in shower, and a large walk-in closet that provides generous storage space. The exterior of the home showcases a stylish combination of Brick, Stucco, and Siding, creating classic curb appeal that stands the test of time. A charming wooden post accent on the front porch adds a warm, welcoming touch that enhances the home's inviting design. Step out to the covered rear patio, perfect for outdoor dining, morning coffee, or relaxing in the evening breeze.

Key facts

• Undermount sinks
• Granite countertops
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED HOMES
• NEW CONSTRUCTION COMMUNITY
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLANS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UNDERMOUNT SINKS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $252,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $307,916.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-296 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Champ Cooper Elementary School (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #333 of 646 statewide, top 54%, 1,126 students, 57% FRL); Ponchatoula High School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #106 of 265 statewide, top 43%, 2,262 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 73% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 813 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 185d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 399 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,631 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 399 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.12%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,916
• List price: $252,990
• Delta: -17.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42409 Hamilton Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,858 (+7%)	2mo	$262,000	$141	79
42513 Blue Bay Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,738 (0%)	5mo	$258,023	$148	74
42333 Jasper Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,685 (-3%)	3mo	$240,000	$142	64
42213 Blue Bay Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	1,833 (+6%)	2mo	$270,075	$147	63
42252 Florence Lance Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (+7%)	4mo	$290,604	$157	57
42180 Dothan Pl	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+5%)	4mo	$255,000	$140	56
42468 Blue Bay Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,887 (+9%)	0mo	$271,155	$144	56
42468 Blue Bay Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,887 (+9%)	0mo	$271,155	$144	56
42209 Atmore Pl	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,685 (-3%)	4mo	$259,000	$154	54
41486 Dothan Pl	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+5%)	4mo	$250,000	$137	52
42210 Blue Bay Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,887 (+9%)	4mo	$271,944	$144	50
42195 Millbrook Way	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-8%)	5mo	$234,400	$147	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-74,041
• Equity at exit: $45,911

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-109,488
• Equity at exit: $26,623

Cash invested: $86,216 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $269,000 ($147/sqft)
• Median days on market: 250 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70454

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,615
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,619/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,694

Max offer price $265,102

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-189	+0% $-296	+5% $-402	+10% $-509
Rent	-10% $-479	-5% $-387	+0% $-296	+5% $-204	+10% $-113
Rate	-1.0pp $-141	-0.5pp $-218	base $-296	+0.5pp $-376	+1.0pp $-457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,979
• Closing costs: $9,237
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26122 Trinity Ln Ponchatoula, LA	4.0	3.0	2175	$2,500	$1.15	184d	1	0.29mi
42290 Blue Bay Dr Ponchatoula, LA	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,150	$1.16	184d	1	0.48mi
42293 Atmore Pl Ponchatoula, LA	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,150	$1.18	184d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $252,990 Active 399 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $252,990 Active 398 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $252,990 Active 397 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $252,990 Active 396 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $252,990 Active 395 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $252,990 Active 393 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $252,990 Active 392 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $252,990 Active 391 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $252,990 Active 390 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $252,990 Active 389 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $252,990 Active 388 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $252,990 Active 387 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $252,990 Active 386 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $252,990 Active 385 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $252,990 Active 384 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $252,990 Active 383 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $252,990 Active 382 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $252,990 Active 381 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $252,990 Active 380 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $252,990 Active 379 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $252,990 Active 378 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $252,990 Active 377 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $252,990 Active 376 DOM
24. 2026-09-26
    days on market $252,990 Active 374 DOM
25. 2026-09-25
    days on market $252,990 Active 373 DOM
26. 2026-09-24
    days on market $252,990 Active 372 DOM
27. 2026-09-24
    days on market $252,990 Active 371 DOM
28. 2026-09-22
    days on market $252,990 Active 370 DOM
29. 2026-09-21
    days on market $252,990 Active 369 DOM
30. 2026-09-20
    days on market $252,990 Active 368 DOM
31. 2026-09-19
    days on market $252,990 Active 367 DOM
32. 2026-09-18
    days on market $252,990 Active 366 DOM
33. 2026-09-17
    days on market $252,990 Active 365 DOM
34. 2026-09-16
    days on market $252,990 Active 364 DOM
35. 2026-09-15
    days on market $252,990 Active 363 DOM
36. 2026-09-14
    days on market $252,990 Active 362 DOM
37. 2026-09-13
    days on market $252,990 Active 361 DOM
38. 2026-09-12
    days on market $252,990 Active 360 DOM
39. 2026-09-11
    days on market $252,990 Active 359 DOM
40. 2026-09-05
    days on market $252,990 Active 353 DOM
41. 2026-09-04
    days on market $252,990 Active 352 DOM
42. 2026-09-03
    days on market $252,990 Active 351 DOM
43. 2026-09-02
    days on market $252,990 Active 350 DOM
44. 2026-08-30
    days on market $252,990 Active 347 DOM
45. 2026-08-29
    days on market $252,990 Active 346 DOM
46. 2026-08-28
    days on market $252,990 Active 345 DOM
47. 2026-08-27
    days on market $252,990 Active 344 DOM
48. 2026-08-26
    days on market $252,990 Active 343 DOM
49. 2026-08-25
    days on market $252,990 Active 342 DOM
50. 2026-08-24
    days on market $252,990 Active 341 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,248
• − Property taxes: −$4,619
• − Insurance: −$1,540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,226
• − Management: −$2,226
• − Depreciation: −$8,958
• Taxable loss: −$8,988
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,157
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This beautifully designed new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great investment opportunity with high resale and rental potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both New flooring — Can improve the look and feel of the home ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can attract more buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Champ Cooper Elementary School F LA #333/646 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 High Ponchatoula High School F LA #106/265 Nat'l #9,639/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Ponchatoula

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #9755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tangipahoa Parish · 144,204 people
• City population: 34,564
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,564
• Household income: $71,611
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

---

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.55%
• Current HPI: 129.6069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-18 Listed $252,990 Zillow