3216 Poe Cv Unit 4F · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$185,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,010 sqft · Condo public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1973 $183/sqft · 50% below area Est $369k · 50% under · waterfront $350/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake views, Hill Country sunsets, and a kitchen that was completely rebuilt in 2024, all under $200K. Unit 4F at The Caribbean Condos is a 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo sitting at 1,010 square feet offering two separate outdoor decks with views of Lake Travis and the Texas Hill Country. The living room opens onto one through a pair of sliding doors. Both bedrooms have their own sliding door access to the second deck, so the views aren't reserved for one room. Inside, the kitchen was gutted and rebuilt in 2024. New cabinets, quartz countertops, backsplash, stainless appliances (all convey), lighting, and paint. New tile floors run through the main living areas, and the layout is clean and functional — one living area / dining area, in-unit laundry, a pantry, double vanity, and more storage than you'd expect for the square footage. A covered carport space with its own storage room rounds it out. Water, sewer, and building insurance comes with Condo dues and are a member in the Lago Vista Property Owners Association, one of the better amenity packages in the area. Nine lakefront parks, four boat ramps, a marina, swimming pool, disc golf, tennis and pickleball courts, and a campground Eunify. This one works as a primary residence, a second home, or a short-term rental. Lago Vista ISD.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• In-unit laundry
• Views of lake travis

Tags

• KITCHEN COMPLETELY REBUILT
• TWO SEPARATE OUTDOOR DECKS
• VIEWS OF LAKE TRAVIS
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• DOUBLE VANITY
• COVERED CARPORT SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.2% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lago Vista El (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 502 students, 34% FRL); Lago Vista Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 433 students, 25% FRL); Lago Vista H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 636 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1101 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,409 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,937
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -49.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-42,587
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-52,705
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1101
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,102/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,096

Max offer price $149,409

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-97	-5% $-149	+0% $-201	+5% $-254	+10% $-306
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-274	+0% $-201	+5% $-129	+10% $-56
Rate	-1.0pp $-108	-0.5pp $-154	base $-201	+0.5pp $-249	+1.0pp $-298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21513 Pershing Ave Unit A Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,625	$1.26	12d	1	0.13mi
21201 Portsmouth Cv Unit 5 Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1284	$1,850	$1.44	19d	1	0.26mi
21201 Portsmouth Cv Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1289	$1,795	$1.39	45d	1	0.26mi
21200 Portsmouth Cv Unit 1 Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1383	$1,995	$1.44	14d	1	0.28mi
3404 American Dr Lago Vista, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1015	$2,200	$2.17	45d	2	0.31mi
3404 American Dr Lago Vista, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1015	$2,200	$2.17	0d	2	0.31mi
3404 American Dr #3202 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,200	$1.85	0d	1	0.31mi
21423 Patton Ave Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,289	$0.99	13d	1	0.36mi
21101 Boggy Ford Rd Lago Vista, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,240	$1.27	0d	9	0.37mi
21425 Patton Ave Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,750	$1.41	22d	1	0.37mi
21501 Patton Ave Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,650	$1.35	25d	1	0.38mi
21501 Patton Ave Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,650	$1.35	14d	1	0.38mi
2500 American Dr Unit B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,750	$1.38	0d	1	0.61mi
21604 Boggy Ford Rd Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,750	$1.18	19d	1	0.73mi
21635 Boggy Ford Rd Unit A Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1077	$1,595	$1.48	13d	1	0.94mi
21637 Boggy Ford Rd Apt B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	19d	1	0.95mi
21013 Highland Lake Dr Unit D93 Lago Vista, TX	1.0	2.0	744	$1,075	$1.44	45d	1	1.04mi
21107 Highland Lake Dr #3 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	976	$1,350	$1.38	45d	1	1.11mi
2301 Hancock Ave #3 Leander, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,350	$1.57	22d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerinsurancepool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $185,000 Pending 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active Under Contract 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active Under Contract 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active Under Contract 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $185,000 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Active Under Contract 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $185,000 Active Under Contract 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   status $185,000 Active Under Contract 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-04-13
    listed $185,000 Active 1303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1303 chars)

    Lake views, Hill Country sunsets, and a kitchen that was completely rebuilt in 2024, all under $200K. Unit 4F at The Caribbean Condos is a 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo sitting at 1,010 square feet offering two separate outdoor decks with views of Lake Travis and the Texas Hill Country. The living room opens onto one through a pair of sliding doors. Both bedrooms have their own sliding door access to the second deck, so the views aren't reserved for one room. Inside, the kitchen was gutted and rebuilt in 2024. New cabinets, quartz countertops, backsplash, stainless appliances (all convey), lighting, and paint. New tile floors run through the main living areas, and the layout is clean and functional — one living area / dining area, in-unit laundry, a pantry, double vanity, and more storage than you'd expect for the square footage. A covered carport space with its own storage room rounds it out. Water, sewer, and building insurance comes with Condo dues and are a member in the Lago Vista Property Owners Association, one of the better amenity packages in the area. Nine lakefront parks, four boat ramps, a marina, swimming pool, disc golf, tennis and pickleball courts, and a campground Eunify. This one works as a primary residence, a second home, or a short-term rental. Lago Vista ISD.

12. 2024-06-27
    soldstatus
13. 2024-06-24
    soldstatus Closed 822-char remark

    Show marketing remark (822 chars)

    Lovely 2-Bedroom 1.5-Bath one level condo flat with 2-exterior decks for living room & both bedrooms. Condo dues include water, trash, sewer, exterior insurance/maintenance/landscaping. 1-car carport with storage closet. Scenic views of the hill country and some Lake Travis. Single "un-shared" side entry front door with covered porch, front yard, and a few covered steps up to the carport. Long breakfast bar open to living room great for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank floors in kitchen, living-dining & baths (looks like wood). Bedrooms are tight weave flat carpet. All appliances are included. 7-closets in condo great for clothes and storage. Very warm and comfortable cozy living lifestyle. Just a few blocks to the neighborhood fitness center. A great value and price for affordable living.

14. 2024-06-09
    status Pending 822-char remark

    Show marketing remark (822 chars)

    Lovely 2-Bedroom 1.5-Bath one level condo flat with 2-exterior decks for living room & both bedrooms. Condo dues include water, trash, sewer, exterior insurance/maintenance/landscaping. 1-car carport with storage closet. Scenic views of the hill country and some Lake Travis. Single "un-shared" side entry front door with covered porch, front yard, and a few covered steps up to the carport. Long breakfast bar open to living room great for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank floors in kitchen, living-dining & baths (looks like wood). Bedrooms are tight weave flat carpet. All appliances are included. 7-closets in condo great for clothes and storage. Very warm and comfortable cozy living lifestyle. Just a few blocks to the neighborhood fitness center. A great value and price for affordable living.

15. 2024-05-31
    historical Active Under Contract 822-char remark

    Show marketing remark (822 chars)

    Lovely 2-Bedroom 1.5-Bath one level condo flat with 2-exterior decks for living room & both bedrooms. Condo dues include water, trash, sewer, exterior insurance/maintenance/landscaping. 1-car carport with storage closet. Scenic views of the hill country and some Lake Travis. Single "un-shared" side entry front door with covered porch, front yard, and a few covered steps up to the carport. Long breakfast bar open to living room great for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank floors in kitchen, living-dining & baths (looks like wood). Bedrooms are tight weave flat carpet. All appliances are included. 7-closets in condo great for clothes and storage. Very warm and comfortable cozy living lifestyle. Just a few blocks to the neighborhood fitness center. A great value and price for affordable living.

16. 2024-05-31
    listed $175,000 Active 822-char remark

    Show marketing remark (822 chars)

    Lovely 2-Bedroom 1.5-Bath one level condo flat with 2-exterior decks for living room & both bedrooms. Condo dues include water, trash, sewer, exterior insurance/maintenance/landscaping. 1-car carport with storage closet. Scenic views of the hill country and some Lake Travis. Single "un-shared" side entry front door with covered porch, front yard, and a few covered steps up to the carport. Long breakfast bar open to living room great for entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank floors in kitchen, living-dining & baths (looks like wood). Bedrooms are tight weave flat carpet. All appliances are included. 7-closets in condo great for clothes and storage. Very warm and comfortable cozy living lifestyle. Just a few blocks to the neighborhood fitness center. A great value and price for affordable living.

17. 2024-04-24
    price
18. 2024-04-24
    price
19. 2024-04-23
    price
20. 2024-03-11
    price
21. 2024-02-08
    price
22. 2024-01-11
    price
23. 2023-12-27
    price
24. 2023-11-22
    listed Active
25. 1998-07-17
    soldstatus
26. 1982-10-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,102 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$284/yr (+$24/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,102
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$5,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,300
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lago Vista, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $185,000 Unlock MLS
• 2024-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-24 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2024-06-09 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-31 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-31 Listed $175,000 Unlock MLS
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-04-23 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-03-11 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-02-08 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-01-11 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-12-27 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-11-22 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 1998-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,102 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.