3626 Karissa Rd · Cut and Shoot, TX 77306

$230,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,775 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2019 6,155 sqft lot $130/sqft · 14% below area Est $264k · 13% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This stunning brick and stone 4-bedroom home blends timeless curb appeal with modern comfort. Inside, luxury vinyl plank flooring flows through the main living areas, leading to a spacious open-concept living room with an eat-at bar—perfect for casual dining and entertaining. The private primary suite features an elegant tray ceiling and a spa-like bath with separate soaking tub, walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a generous walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, family, or office space. Step outside to a covered back patio overlooking a large backyard with endless possibilities for outdoor living. Ideally located just minutes from Conroe, with conveni

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Large backyard
• Covered back patio

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA-LIKE BATH
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Cumberland Crossing POA; Annual association fee of $300 (covers common areas); Community gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2019; Concrete road access
• Construction: Brick, cement siding and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fence with backyard fencing; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (17 x 15); Bedroom on first floor (12 x 11); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); HVAC energy-efficient features; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,634 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.89%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,973
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -12.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3579 Korina Way	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-10%)	0mo	$235,000	$147	74
855 Waukegan Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,691 (-5%)	2mo	$279,990	$166	73
14744 S Ascot Bend Cir	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,535 (-14%)	3mo	$241,065	$157	59
14708 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+12%)	2mo	$256,990	$130	59
14892 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-10%)	7mo	$247,990	$154	58
14749 S Ascot Bend Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-12%)	3mo	$249,967	$160	57
14881 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-10%)	7mo	$243,990	$152	56
2702 Pheasant Hill Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-12%)	3mo	$238,386	$153	56
14861 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-10%)	7mo	$243,990	$152	55
14880 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.45mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+12%)	7mo	$255,990	$129	52
14860 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+12%)	7mo	$255,990	$129	50
14869 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+12%)	7mo	$255,990	$129	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-30,725
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-18,133
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,867/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,088

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $167	+0% $102	+5% $37	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $14	+0% $102	+5% $189	+10% $277
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $160	base $102	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	23d	1	0.31mi
14990 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$2,400	$1.49	45d	1	0.35mi
14918 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$1,955	$0.99	45d	1	0.41mi
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 742-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $230,000 Active 742-char remark
3. 2026-04-28
   historical
4. 2026-03-10
   listed $240,000 Active
5. 2019-12-16
   soldstatus Sold
6. 2019-11-18
   status Pending
7. 2019-10-25
   status Active
8. 2019-09-19
   status Pending
9. 2019-08-14
   status Active
10. 2019-08-14
    status Pending
11. 2019-08-08
    status Active
12. 2019-08-08
    status Pending
13. 2019-08-07
    status Active
14. 2019-08-06
    status Pending
15. 2019-07-01
    price $210,097
16. 2019-05-20
    price $209,097
17. 2019-05-13
    listed $208,097 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,867 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$342/yr (+$28/mo · 8.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,867
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$2,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$612
• After-tax cash flow: $1,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2019-12-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-11-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-09-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-08-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-08-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-08-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-08-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-08-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-08-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-01 Price Changed $210,097 HARMLS
• 2019-05-20 Price Changed $209,097 HARMLS
• 2019-05-13 Listed $208,097 HARMLS

Property tax history

+36.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,867 · -6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.