105 Old County Rd · Mineral, VA 23117

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2005 3.48 ac lot Est $302k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Private acreage, spacious living areas, and room to make it your own. Set back from the road on a spacious wooded lot, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home offers a quieter setting with open yard space, mature trees, and a long private driveway with plenty of parking. Inside, you’ll find generously sized living areas that provide a strong starting point for renovation and updates, allowing you to redesign the space around your style and needs. The single-level layout keeps everyday living simple, while the surrounding land adds room for gardening, outdoor gatherings, hobbies, or future projects. Located just off Davis Hwy/Route 208, you’re close to Louisa County Middle School

Key facts

• Private acreage
• Single-level layout
• Open yard space

Tags

• PRIVATE ACREAGE
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• OPEN YARD SPACE
• MATURE TREES
• LONG PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with 3 parking spaces (total 3 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached property; Above-grade living area per assessor
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation; Above grade and below grade structures noted; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Outside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s) heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Stove; Refrigerator; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.2% in Mineral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#246 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Jefferson Elementary (math 59% / reading 72%, grade B+, #410 of 1,108 statewide, top 37%, 632 students, 84% FRL); Louisa County Middle (math 59% / reading 76%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 1,152 students, 64% FRL); Louisa County High (math 86% / reading 92%, grade A+, #10 of 319 statewide, top 3%, 1,653 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 38% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,156 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.81%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
319 Chopping Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-1%)	5mo	$300,000	$300	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-20,435
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,690
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23117

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,704/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,792

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $316	+0% $252	+5% $189	+10% $125
Rent	-10% $86	-5% $169	+0% $252	+5% $336	+10% $419
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $310	base $252	+0.5pp $194	+1.0pp $135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-05-19
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,704 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 8.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,704
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,027
• − Management: −$2,027
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $3,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Louisa County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,036
• Composite: 60.21/100
• National rank: #862
• State rank: #19 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mineral

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #8257

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,772

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,941 people
• By 2030: 37,752 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 38,605 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 38,480 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 38,011 · +2.9%
• By 2100: 34,748 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 16% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.5% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+13.8 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.27%
• Current HPI: 335.147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,704 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.