235 W Lewisburg Rd · Vilonia, AR 72173

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 2014 15 ac lot Est $230k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely 3 bed 2 bath home that sits on 15 wooded acres. Covered front porch greets you as you enter. Home offers large living room that opens into eat in kitchen. Black appliances, tons of counter space and large area perfect for entertaining. Primary bedroom offers walk in closet and en suite bathroom with walk in shower and corner soaking tub. Two guest bedrooms are apart from primary bedroom with a full bath as well. Laundry room is off kitchen and leads out to back wooden deck. Land offers 15 acres completely wooded perfect for hunting and exploring. Backyard also has additional 12X14 wood shed with attached chicken coop. Land also offers two ponds & a blueberry orchard. All electr

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• En suite bathroom
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• WALK IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Vilonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#108 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Vilonia School District (rural): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #23 of 238 in AR (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vilonia Elementary School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 571 students, 46% FRL); Frank Mitchell Intermediate School (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #42 of 201 statewide, top 22%, 654 students, 45% FRL); Vilonia High School (math 32% / reading 49%, grade F, #45 of 292 statewide, top 15%, 859 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $1k; list at $240k implies a 23900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,843 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,928
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
235 W Lewisburg Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$230,000	$164	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $109,551
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $339,318
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72173

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $191,868

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-167	-5% $-250	+0% $-333	+5% $-416	+10% $-498
Rent	-10% $-465	-5% $-399	+0% $-333	+5% $-266	+10% $-200
Rate	-1.0pp $-212	-0.5pp $-272	base $-333	+0.5pp $-395	+1.0pp $-458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $240,000 New Listing
3. 2001-02-16
   soldstatus $1,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$8,307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,994
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vilonia School District
• NCES district ID: 0513530
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,913
• Composite: 40.64/100
• National rank: #3681
• State rank: #23 of 238 in AR

Livability — Vilonia

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #10836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,122

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.08%
• Current HPI: 298.3398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+23900.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $240,000 CARMLS
• 2001-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $61 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.