12270 Geneva Way · Apple Valley, MN 55124

$108,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 4,300 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable living with great amenities! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home is located in a desirable community with access to a community pool and two parks. The kitchen features a gas stove, tile backsplash, and center island—perfect for cooking and gathering. Vinyl flooring throughout the main living area adds style and durability, while convenient parking and a storage shed on the lot provide added functionality. This home offers comfort, convenience, and value all in one!

Key facts

• Two parks
• Vinyl flooring
• Community pool

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• TWO PARKS
• GAS STOVE
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• CENTER ISLAND
• VINYL FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,344 square feet; Foundation dimensions approximately 28' x 48'
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $1,030
• HOA & community: Land is leased (land lease fee applicable)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Single-story residential manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Asphalt roof (8 years old or newer)
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Lot dimensions approximately 43' x 100'

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level (13'x13', 10'x10', 10'x10')
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (9'x7'); One three-quarter bathroom (6'x5')
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living and kitchen layout; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (9'x5')

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $108k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $821 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 4.0% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#10 in MN, #379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $106,380 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.58%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $35,357
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $100,469
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55124

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,984 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$135 /mo · $1,620/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $821

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7405 123rd St W Saint Paul, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	970	$1,599	$1.65	24d	2	0.12mi
12635 Germane Ave Unit 1 St Paul, MN	3.0	2.5	1745	$2,170	$1.24	24d	1	0.33mi
12655 Germane Ave Apt 5 St Paul, MN	2.0	2.0	1192	$1,495	$1.25	16d	1	0.35mi
12685 Germane Ave Saint Paul, MN	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1560	$2,195	$1.41	3d	5	0.40mi
12733 Germane Ave Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,580	$1.50	24d	5	0.43mi
12790 Germane Ave Saint Paul, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$1,650	$1.50	24d	1	0.48mi
4598 Slater Rd Eagan, MN	2.0	1.5–2.0	1150	$1,780	$1.55	1d	6	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $108,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $108,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   price $108,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-24
    listed $114,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$1,620
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,905
• − Management: −$1,905
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $8,647
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,075
• After-tax cash flow: $7,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 26 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home is ready for immediate occupancy with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps home in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps home in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 55,658
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 55,658
• Household income: $97,727
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.56%
• Current HPI: 227.4734
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $114,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid