137 Jacks Dr · Ezel, KY 40387

$69,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 145 Days on market

Built 1995 0.75 ac lot $51/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming A-frame cabin located on Jack's Drive in Wellington, KY, just minutes from Cave Run Lake and a short drive to Morehead. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on approximately 3/4 of an acre, offering privacy and room to grow. The cabin features a flexible layout with the potential to add an additional bedroom or reconfigure the space to suit your needs. While the property does need a few updates, it offers a solid opportunity to customize and add value, as a weekend retreat, short-term rental, or full-time residence. Enjoy the peaceful setting with easy access to boating, hiking, and outdoor recreation, all while being close to town!

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Cave run lake
• Flexible layout

Tags

• A-FRAME CABIN
• CAVE RUN LAKE
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 3.4% in Ezel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#375 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Menifee County (rural): math 21% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #113 of 165 in KY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Menifee County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.23%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,907
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -59.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
162 Stephen Rd	0.62mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,300 (-4%)	16mo	$177,000	$136	43
24 Daisy Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,211 (-11%)	17mo	$189,900	$157	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $11,629
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $39,543
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40387

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $406	-5% $382	+0% $358	+5% $334	+10% $310
Rent	-10% $274	-5% $316	+0% $358	+5% $400	+10% $441
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $375	base $358	+0.5pp $340	+1.0pp $322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,000 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $69,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-01-27
    listed $125,000 Active 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Charming A-frame cabin located on Jack's Drive in Wellington, KY, just minutes from Cave Run Lake and a short drive to Morehead. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on approximately 3/4 of an acre, offering privacy and room to grow. The cabin features a flexible layout with the potential to add an additional bedroom or reconfigure the space to suit your needs. While the property does need a few updates, it offers a solid opportunity to customize and add value, as a weekend retreat, short-term rental, or full-time residence. Enjoy the peaceful setting with easy access to boating, hiking, and outdoor recreation, all while being close to town!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,014
• − Management: −$1,014
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $3,398
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$816
• After-tax cash flow: $3,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee County
• NCES district ID: 2104080
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $32,414
• Composite: 24.86/100
• National rank: #7587
• State rank: #113 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ezel

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #17739

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,805

Population outlook (Menifee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,403 people
• By 2030: 6,264 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 5,790 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 5,037 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 3,738 · -41.6%
• By 2100: 2,519 · -60.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Menifee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.7) · D 20.2% · R 77.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -62.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -57.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.7 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+47.1 2012: R+16.8 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.58%
• Current HPI: 215.8197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Listed $125,000 EKAR