5221 N 17 Rd · Antioch, MI 49668

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1997 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

How cute can a little manufactured home be? Come see! You will not believe the finishings here. About three years ago, this home underwent extensive renovations including a brand new kitchen - new cupboards, new beautiful glass tile backsplash, new appliances, and under counter lighting. Fresh paint, new hardwood flooring and gorgeous light fixtures run through the living room, kitchen and into the primary bedroom. The primary bath was also completely redone with a ceramic tile floor, new paint, new vanity and a sweet tile shower with some fun lighting! The heating system has been upgraded to include an electric heat pump in addition to the natural gas forced air furnace. And, of course, central air. There are TWO amazing covered porches 12x56 in the front and 8x12 in the back. The 24x24 garage offers ample parking and storage/shop space. The gorgeous one acre yard is two miles from the Manistee River and state land and 22 miles to Chums Corner! Endless fishing and wildlife viewing!!

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New appliances
• Ceramic tile floor

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• UNDER COUNTER LIGHTING
• NEW HARDWOOD FLOORING
• GORGEOUS LIGHT FIXTURES
• CERAMIC TILE FLOOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Electric water heater
• Home design: Ranch-style home; Single-story (ranch)
• Construction: Built in 1997; Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: One-acre lot; Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Has cooling
• Interior features: Eight total rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (35.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mesick Consolidated Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #286 of 540 in MI (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Wexford County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wexford County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $190k implies a 2614% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $121,920 (35.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $92,553
• Equity at exit: $171,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $280,891
• Equity at exit: $369,128

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49668

• Home prices YoY: 27.8%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $693/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,435

Max offer price $159,952

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-63	-5% $-116	+0% $-170	+5% $-224	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-218	+0% $-170	+5% $-122	+10% $-74
Rate	-1.0pp $-74	-0.5pp $-122	base $-170	+0.5pp $-219	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (998 chars)

   How cute can a little manufactured home be? Come see! You will not believe the finishings here. About three years ago, this home underwent extensive renovations including a brand new kitchen - new cupboards, new beautiful glass tile backsplash, new appliances, and under counter lighting. Fresh paint, new hardwood flooring and gorgeous light fixtures run through the living room, kitchen and into the primary bedroom. The primary bath was also completely redone with a ceramic tile floor, new paint, new vanity and a sweet tile shower with some fun lighting! The heating system has been upgraded to include an electric heat pump in addition to the natural gas forced air furnace. And, of course, central air. There are TWO amazing covered porches 12x56 in the front and 8x12 in the back. The 24x24 garage offers ample parking and storage/shop space. The gorgeous one acre yard is two miles from the Manistee River and state land and 22 miles to Chums Corner! Endless fishing and wildlife viewing!!

4. 2026-06-16
   listed $190,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (998 chars)

   How cute can a little manufactured home be? Come see! You will not believe the finishings here. About three years ago, this home underwent extensive renovations including a brand new kitchen - new cupboards, new beautiful glass tile backsplash, new appliances, and under counter lighting. Fresh paint, new hardwood flooring and gorgeous light fixtures run through the living room, kitchen and into the primary bedroom. The primary bath was also completely redone with a ceramic tile floor, new paint, new vanity and a sweet tile shower with some fun lighting! The heating system has been upgraded to include an electric heat pump in addition to the natural gas forced air furnace. And, of course, central air. There are TWO amazing covered porches 12x56 in the front and 8x12 in the back. The 24x24 garage offers ample parking and storage/shop space. The gorgeous one acre yard is two miles from the Manistee River and state land and 22 miles to Chums Corner! Endless fishing and wildlife viewing!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $693 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,809 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,117/yr (+$93/mo · 161.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$693
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,170
• − Management: −$1,170
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$5,523
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,326
• After-tax cash flow: $-716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesick Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 2623670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,415
• Composite: 29.98/100
• National rank: #6367
• State rank: #286 of 540 in MI

Livability — Antioch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,536

Population outlook (Wexford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,399 people
• By 2030: 31,692 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 29,789 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 27,473 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 21,822 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 15,237 · -53.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Wexford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.4pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+34.3 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 98.81%
• Current HPI: 454.0901
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+1627.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $190,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-15 Listed $190,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-15 Listed $190,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 1996-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records
• 1990-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $693 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.