Senita Plan · Florence, AZ 85132

$319,990

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,756 sqft · SingleFamily · 882 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Senita is an attractive, easy-living one-story home design. With flowing, open spaces and excellent bedroom separation, the Senita is perfect for a growing family. Among the highlights of this comfortable home are a large owner's suite with roomy walk-in closet, and flex space that can be configured as a den. A modern kitchen with large island is perfect for gathering with family and friends.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 881 days

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $359,242.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-348 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Florence — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 882 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,227 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 882 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.15%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,242
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -10.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3671 N Monument Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,816 (+3%)	2mo	$330,000	$182	68
3687 N Princeton Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,817 (+4%)	4mo	$360,000	$198	66
6900 W Patriot Way	0.45mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,613 (-8%)	1mo	$365,000	$226	60
6718 W Patriot Way	0.43mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,613 (-8%)	2mo	$438,000	$272	60
6942 W Heritage Way	0.26mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,971 (+12%)	5mo	$420,000	$213	58
6749 W Noble Prairie Way	0.62mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,817 (+4%)	3mo	$370,000	$204	58
6375 W Heritage Way	0.38mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,495 (-15%)	5mo	$343,999	$230	48
7184 W Noble Prairie Way	0.73mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (-6%)	3mo	$345,000	$209	48
3877 N Smithsonian Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-9%)	5mo	$235,000	$147	42
7253 W Cinder Brook Way	0.59mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,507 (-14%)	3mo	$340,000	$226	41
3959 N Hidden Canyon Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,495 (-15%)	4mo	$285,000	$191	41
7304 W Silver Spring Way	0.59mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,507 (-14%)	3mo	$317,500	$211	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-84,950
• Equity at exit: $53,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-120,662
• Equity at exit: $31,061

Cash invested: $100,588 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,702 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,884
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$449 /mo · $5,389/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,143

Max offer price $308,908

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,810
• Closing costs: $10,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3658 N Princeton Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	44d	1	0.35mi
3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	44d	1	0.50mi
6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	44d	1	0.78mi
6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	44d	1	0.85mi
4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.91mi
4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1586	$3,500	$2.21	44d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,990 Active 882 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,990 Active 881 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,990 Active 880 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,990 Active 879 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,990 Active 877 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,990 Active 876 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,990 Active 873 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,990 Active 872 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,990 Active 871 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,990 Active 868 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 867 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,990 Active 866 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,990 Active 865 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,990 Active 864 DOM
15. 2025-12-21
    price $319,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The Senita is an attractive, easy-living one-story home design. With flowing, open spaces and excellent bedroom separation, the Senita is perfect for a growing family. Among the highlights of this comfortable home are a large owner's suite with roomy walk-in closet, and flex space that can be configured as a den. A modern kitchen with large island is perfect for gathering with family and friends.

16. 2025-03-12
    price $343,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The Senita is an attractive, easy-living one-story home design. With flowing, open spaces and excellent bedroom separation, the Senita is perfect for a growing family. Among the highlights of this comfortable home are a large owner's suite with roomy walk-in closet, and flex space that can be configured as a den. A modern kitchen with large island is perfect for gathering with family and friends.

17. 2025-02-01
    price $340,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The Senita is an attractive, easy-living one-story home design. With flowing, open spaces and excellent bedroom separation, the Senita is perfect for a growing family. Among the highlights of this comfortable home are a large owner's suite with roomy walk-in closet, and flex space that can be configured as a den. A modern kitchen with large island is perfect for gathering with family and friends.

18. 2024-10-03
    price $339,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The Senita is an attractive, easy-living one-story home design. With flowing, open spaces and excellent bedroom separation, the Senita is perfect for a growing family. Among the highlights of this comfortable home are a large owner's suite with roomy walk-in closet, and flex space that can be configured as a den. A modern kitchen with large island is perfect for gathering with family and friends.

19. 2024-09-05
    price $338,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The Senita is an attractive, easy-living one-story home design. With flowing, open spaces and excellent bedroom separation, the Senita is perfect for a growing family. Among the highlights of this comfortable home are a large owner's suite with roomy walk-in closet, and flex space that can be configured as a den. A modern kitchen with large island is perfect for gathering with family and friends.

20. 2024-07-17
    price $333,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The Senita is an attractive, easy-living one-story home design. With flowing, open spaces and excellent bedroom separation, the Senita is perfect for a growing family. Among the highlights of this comfortable home are a large owner's suite with roomy walk-in closet, and flex space that can be configured as a den. A modern kitchen with large island is perfect for gathering with family and friends.

21. 2024-03-27
    price $331,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The Senita is an attractive, easy-living one-story home design. With flowing, open spaces and excellent bedroom separation, the Senita is perfect for a growing family. Among the highlights of this comfortable home are a large owner's suite with roomy walk-in closet, and flex space that can be configured as a den. A modern kitchen with large island is perfect for gathering with family and friends.

22. 2024-03-17
    price $326,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The Senita is an attractive, easy-living one-story home design. With flowing, open spaces and excellent bedroom separation, the Senita is perfect for a growing family. Among the highlights of this comfortable home are a large owner's suite with roomy walk-in closet, and flex space that can be configured as a den. A modern kitchen with large island is perfect for gathering with family and friends.

23. 2024-01-19
    listed $323,990 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The Senita is an attractive, easy-living one-story home design. With flowing, open spaces and excellent bedroom separation, the Senita is perfect for a growing family. Among the highlights of this comfortable home are a large owner's suite with roomy walk-in closet, and flex space that can be configured as a den. A modern kitchen with large island is perfect for gathering with family and friends.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,123
• − Property taxes: −$5,389
• − Insurance: −$1,796
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,594
• − Management: −$2,594
• − Depreciation: −$10,451
• Taxable loss: −$10,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,525
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Senita Plan home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be outdated and replacing it can make the space more modern and appealing
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and can increase property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be outdated and replacing it can make the space more modern and appealing ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and can increase property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-21 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-12 Price Changed $343,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $338,990 Zillow
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $333,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $331,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-17 Price Changed $326,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-19 Listed $323,990 Zillow