Senita Plan · Florence, AZ 85132

$319,990

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,756 sqft · SingleFamily · 1025 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Senita is an attractive, easy-living one-story home design. With flowing, open spaces and excellent bedroom separation, the Senita is perfect for a growing family. Among the highlights of this comfortable home are a large owner's suite with roomy walk-in closet, and flex space that can be configured as a den. A modern kitchen with large island is perfect for gathering with family and friends.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1024 days

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $357,905.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-826 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 1144 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 83d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1025 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,544 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1025 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.89%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,905
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -10.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6331 W Desert Blossom Way	0.29mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,933 (+10%)	0mo	$301,000	$156	64
3671 N Monument Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,816 (+3%)	6mo	$330,000	$182	64
3687 N Princeton Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,817 (+4%)	8mo	$360,000	$198	62
7337 W Silver Spring Way	0.62mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+6%)	0mo	$360,000	$194	57
6900 W Patriot Way	0.45mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,613 (-8%)	5mo	$365,000	$226	56
6718 W Patriot Way	0.43mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,613 (-8%)	7mo	$438,000	$272	56
6749 W Noble Prairie Way	0.62mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,817 (+4%)	8mo	$370,000	$204	54
6738 W Willow Way	0.70mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,613 (-8%)	4mo	$379,900	$236	46
7184 W Noble Prairie Way	0.73mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (-6%)	8mo	$345,000	$209	44
7253 W Cinder Brook Way	0.59mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,507 (-14%)	8mo	$340,000	$226	38
3959 N Hidden Canyon Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,495 (-15%)	9mo	$285,000	$191	37
7304 W Silver Spring Way	0.59mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,507 (-14%)	8mo	$317,500	$211	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-114,135
• Equity at exit: $53,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.81×
• Total profit: $-181,136
• Equity at exit: $30,945

Cash invested: $100,214 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 43 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.3 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $349,000 ($215/sqft)
• Median days on market: 164 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 1144
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,085 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,877
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$447 /mo · $5,369/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,131

Max offer price $238,397

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-579	-5% $-702	+0% $-826	+5% $-950	+10% $-1,073
Rent	-10% $-991	-5% $-908	+0% $-826	+5% $-744	+10% $-661
Rate	-1.0pp $-646	-0.5pp $-735	base $-826	+0.5pp $-919	+1.0pp $-1,013

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,476
• Closing costs: $10,737
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	184d	1	0.50mi
2327 N Pecos Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,740	$1.39	53d	1	0.55mi
2327 N Pecos Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,550	$1.24	10d	1	0.55mi
2327 N Pecos Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,550	$1.24	7d	1	0.55mi
2327 N Pecos Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,550	$1.24	15d	1	0.55mi
2312 N Hudson Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$2,200	$1.76	83d	1	0.66mi
2206 N Hudson Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	25d	1	0.71mi
6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,000	$1.65	10d	1	0.78mi
6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	184d	1	0.85mi
4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	165d	1	0.91mi
4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1586	$3,500	$2.21	184d	1	0.95mi
4024 N Cottonwood Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1890	$2,000	$1.06	94d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $319,990 Active 1025 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $319,990 Active 1024 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $319,990 Active 1023 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $319,990 Active 1022 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $319,990 Active 1021 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $319,990 Active 1019 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $319,990 Active 1018 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $319,990 Active 1017 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $319,990 Active 1016 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $319,990 Active 1015 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $319,990 Active 1014 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $319,990 Active 1013 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $319,990 Active 1012 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $319,990 Active 1011 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $319,990 Active 1010 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $319,990 Active 1009 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $319,990 Active 1008 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $319,990 Active 1007 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $319,990 Active 1006 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $319,990 Active 1005 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $319,990 Active 1004 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $319,990 Active 1003 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $319,990 Active 1002 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $319,990 Active 1001 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $319,990 Active 1000 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $319,990 Active 999 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $319,990 Active 998 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $319,990 Active 997 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $319,990 Active 996 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $319,990 Active 995 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $319,990 Active 994 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $319,990 Active 993 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $319,990 Active 992 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $319,990 Active 991 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $319,990 Active 990 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $319,990 Active 989 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $319,990 Active 988 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $319,990 Active 987 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $319,990 Active 986 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $319,990 Active 985 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $319,990 Active 984 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $319,990 Active 983 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $319,990 Active 982 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $319,990 Active 981 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $319,990 Active 980 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $319,990 Active 979 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $319,990 Active 978 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $319,990 Active 977 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $319,990 Active 976 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $319,990 Active 975 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,048
• − Property taxes: −$5,369
• − Insurance: −$1,790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,002
• − Management: −$2,002
• − Depreciation: −$10,412
• Taxable loss: −$16,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,983
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Senita Plan home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be outdated and replacing it can make the space more modern and appealing ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and can increase property value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

High Florence High School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-21 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-12 Price Changed $343,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $338,990 Zillow
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $333,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $331,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-17 Price Changed $326,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-19 Listed $323,990 Zillow