Plan 2348 Plan · Arcola, TX 77583

$301,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,348 sqft · SingleFamily · 275 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Gas range * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen USB charging port * Loft * Low-E windows * Kitchen island * 6-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Swimming pool * Playground * Close to golf courses * Pond * Clubhouse

Key facts

• Loft
• Low-e windows
• Kitchen island

Tags

• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• KITCHEN USB CHARGING PORT
• LOFT
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• KITCHEN ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $301,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,851.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($325/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.0% in Arcola — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,425 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,984 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,851
• List price: $301,995
• Delta: 1.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6915 Sunnyvale Ln	0.08mi	4/3.5	2,501 (+6%)	2mo	$295,000	$118	79
219 Murrieta Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	2,013 (-14%)	6mo	$259,000	$129	66
507 Marley Oak Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,261 (-4%)	2mo	$319,900	$141	58
802 Pismo Ln	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,495 (+6%)	8mo	$339,900	$136	55
207 William Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,214 (-6%)	2mo	$325,000	$147	52
818 Pismo Ln	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,508 (+7%)	12mo	$319,900	$128	49
7714 Cattleman Valley Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,561 (+9%)	8mo	$329,900	$129	44
6434 Downey Ln	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,064 (-12%)	2mo	$349,900	$170	43
6414 Downey Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,154 (-8%)	11mo	$369,900	$172	40
6514 Downey Ln	0.64mi	4/3.5	2,064 (-12%)	8mo	$349,888	$170	39
8527 Tropical Breeze	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-13%)	12mo	$304,990	$150	32
1115 Lipizzan Ln	0.75mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,004 (-15%)	5mo	$275,000	$137	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-53,130
• Equity at exit: $44,411

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-69,728
• Equity at exit: $25,753

Cash invested: $83,398 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,562
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,468/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,606

Max offer price $297,851

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $130	+0% $27	+5% $-76	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-77	+0% $27	+5% $131	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $103	base $27	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,463
• Closing costs: $8,936
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$1,750	$1.02	14d	1	0.14mi
7711 Sleek Flock Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2492	$2,850	$1.14	26d	1	0.81mi
7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,200	$1.10	45d	1	0.84mi
6927 Ventura Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	4.0	2771	$3,300	$1.19	45d	1	0.96mi
8210 Radial Ct Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2506	$2,550	$1.02	45d	1	1.27mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	45d	1	1.33mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	20d	1	1.35mi
318 Manor Ave Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1924	$2,400	$1.25	45d	1	1.38mi
8414 Aster Glen Way Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,650	$1.02	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $301,995 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $301,995 Active 272 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $301,995 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $301,995 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $301,995 Active 269 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $301,995 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $301,995 Active 263 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $301,995 Active 261 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $301,995 Active 258 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $301,995 Active 257 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $301,995 Active 256 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $301,995 Active 255 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $301,995 Active 254 DOM
14. 2025-09-20
    listed $301,995 Active 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    * Gas range * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen USB charging port * Loft * Low-E windows * Kitchen island * 6-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Swimming pool * Playground * Close to golf courses * Pond * Clubhouse

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,468
• − Insurance: −$1,489
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,534
• − Management: −$2,534
• − Depreciation: −$8,665
• Taxable loss: −$4,696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,127
• After-tax cash flow: $1,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It's located in a master-planned community with amenities like a swimming pool and playground, making it a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both smart home integration — increases home's appeal and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both smart home integration — increases home's appeal and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Arcola

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1425
• US rank: #24358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-20 Listed $301,995 Zillow