1470 Newcastle Dr · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31204

$99,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1976 0.39 ac lot $87/sqft · 20% below area Est $125k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great price on this cozy one level ranch stlye home! Exterior has cedar siding, inviting front porch, carport attached & fenced yard. Interior features 3Br/2Ba, spacious living room, eat-in kitchen with appliances & more. Excellent location to all amenities.

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Home design: Single-family residence used as residential income; One story
• Construction: Built with standard residential construction materials
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Other exterior features

Interior

• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Interior features: Central heating; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $100k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,515 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.55%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,701
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: -20.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3938 Hartness St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+9%)	1mo	$155,000	$124	58
1269 James St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,150 (0%)	10mo	$130,000	$113	58
4210 Carlo Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	9mo	$147,000	$118	57
4220 Mark Pl	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,275 (+11%)	2mo	$75,000	$59	55
3386 Seaton Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,212 (+5%)	4mo	$148,000	$122	54
4143 Briarwood Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+13%)	13mo	$144,800	$111	44
1271 Sherbrooke Dr	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,275 (+11%)	13mo	$70,000	$55	40
4131 Vallie Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+7%)	13mo	$142,500	$116	40
4131 Vallie Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+7%)	13mo	$142,500	$116	40
4263 Vallie Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-10%)	12mo	$145,000	$139	39
3921 Hartness St	0.52mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,245 (+8%)	21mo	$70,100	$56	38
3921 Hartness St	0.52mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,245 (+8%)	21mo	$70,100	$56	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $4,329
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $35,709
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31204

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,164 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $778/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $795

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $348	-5% $320	+0% $291	+5% $263	+10% $235
Rent	-10% $199	-5% $245	+0% $291	+5% $337	+10% $383
Rate	-1.0pp $341	-0.5pp $317	base $291	+0.5pp $266	+1.0pp $239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3645 Mercer University Dr Macon, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	874	$850	$0.97	44d	4	0.36mi
1208 Fourth Ave W Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	960	$825	$0.86	44d	1	0.38mi
4228 Mark Pl Macon, GA	4.0	1.5	1000	$1,300	$1.30	14d	1	0.53mi
4053 Log Cabin Dr Unit B3 Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	950	$749	$0.79	21d	1	0.53mi
4158 Log Cabin Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,375	$1.00	21d	1	0.54mi
4265 Hillary Pl Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1250	$1,450	$1.16	44d	1	0.57mi
4151 Log Cabin Dr Macon, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,434	$1.72	44d	1	0.59mi
1187 Edna Pl Unit S-1206 Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,060	$1.06	21d	1	0.91mi
1187 Edna Pl Unit S-0503 Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,125	$0.94	21d	1	0.91mi
1187 Edna Pl Unit S-0501 Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	21d	1	0.91mi
1187 Edna Pl Unit S-1208 Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	1000	$850	$0.85	14d	1	0.91mi
1835 Bethlea Ave Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	44d	1	0.94mi
1596 Burton Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1117	$895	$0.80	14d	1	1.01mi
1097 Edna Pl Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1299	$1,300	$1.00	44d	1	1.03mi
1528 Wellworth Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1126	$1,000	$0.89	21d	1	1.11mi
1782 Eveline Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	44d	1	1.13mi
1196 Mimosa Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	21d	1	1.16mi
4704 High Oak Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	14d	1	1.17mi
1076 Carlisle Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,065	$1.04	21d	1	1.22mi
159 Steven Dr Macon, GA	2.0–4.0	2.0	1185	$1,106	$0.93	44d	1	1.38mi
3034 Churchill St Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	872	$900	$1.03	21d	1	1.41mi
3634 Dawn St Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	999	$850	$0.85	44d	1	1.43mi
1020 Radio Dr Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	850	$889	$1.05	44d	1	1.45mi
4836 Mamie Carter Dr Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	14d	1	1.48mi
728 Key St Macon, GA	4.0	1.5	1210	$1,200	$0.99	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,500 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $99,500 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $105,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $105,000 Active 202-char remark
18. 2016-12-22
    soldstatus $38,200 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Great price on this cozy one level ranch stlye home! Exterior has cedar siding, inviting front porch, carport attached & fenced yard. Interior features 3Br/2Ba, spacious living room, eat-in kitchen with appliances & more. Excellent location to all amenities.

19. 2016-10-06
    listed $42,000 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Great price on this cozy one level ranch stlye home! Exterior has cedar siding, inviting front porch, carport attached & fenced yard. Interior features 3Br/2Ba, spacious living room, eat-in kitchen with appliances & more. Excellent location to all amenities.

20. 2000-08-21
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $915 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$138/yr (+$11/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$778
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $1,988
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$477
• After-tax cash flow: $3,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 32,421
• Household income: $38,784
• Rent vs Own: 57.5% rent · 42.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2674.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.44%
• Current HPI: 194.5459
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.61%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+65.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $99,500 MGMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $105,000 MGMLS
• 2016-12-22 Sold (MLS) $38,200 MGMLS
• 2016-10-06 Listed $42,000 MGMLS
• 2000-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $778 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.