678 Orrin St · St. Paul, MN 55102

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,552 sqft · Townhouse public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2006 $375/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A RARE FIND! DISCOVER THIS SPACIOUS & BRIGHT 3BEDROOM/2BATH TOWNHOME, BATHED IN NATURAL LIGHT AND OFFERING CAREFREE LIVING! THE HANDSOME LIVING ROOM FEATURES A BAY WINDOW, OPEN TO THE DINING ROOM. UPGRADED KITCHEN W/MAPLE CABINETRY, SS APPLIANCES. 2CAR+

Key facts

• $375 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Neighborhood number 103
• HOA & community: Self-managed HOA (monthly fee $375) covering hazard insurance, lawn care, and snow removal; Other annual assessment: $174

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage with garage door opener (approx. 22x22)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers; Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels; Primary suite on main level; Shaded roof age: 8 years or less
• Construction: Slab foundation; Foundation area approximately 776; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,552; Building total area approximately 1,552
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Vinyl exterior; Zero lot line; Common lot area; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Breakfast bar / informal dining area
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary suite on main level); Upper-level bedrooms: two secondary bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bathroom; Upper-level 3/4 bathroom with walk-in shower (primary walk-thru)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen window; Natural woodwork; Paneled doors; Porch; In-ground sprinkler; Primary bedroom walk-in closet; Walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $291k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,547/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 1116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $300k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $291,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-28,115
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-10,682
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55102

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,002/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$745
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,046

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
740 Victoria St S Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$3,746	$3.48	2d	39	0.20mi
470 Lexington Pkwy S Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	1175	$3,500	$2.98	1d	19	0.82mi
871 Sibley Memorial Hwy Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1207	$5,930	$4.91	2d	8	1.03mi
695 Grand Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$5,795	$5.13	17d	10	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission
3. 2026-03-27
   listed $300,000 Active
4. 2026-03-26
   historical $300,000
5. 2012-11-29
   soldstatus $170,450
6. 2012-11-15
   soldstatus $170,450 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   A RARE FIND! DISCOVER THIS SPACIOUS & BRIGHT 3BEDROOM/2BATH TOWNHOME, BATHED IN NATURAL LIGHT AND OFFERING CAREFREE LIVING! THE HANDSOME LIVING ROOM FEATURES A BAY WINDOW, OPEN TO THE DINING ROOM. UPGRADED KITCHEN W/MAPLE CABINETRY, SS APPLIANCES. 2CAR+

7. 2012-10-22
   historical 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   A RARE FIND! DISCOVER THIS SPACIOUS & BRIGHT 3BEDROOM/2BATH TOWNHOME, BATHED IN NATURAL LIGHT AND OFFERING CAREFREE LIVING! THE HANDSOME LIVING ROOM FEATURES A BAY WINDOW, OPEN TO THE DINING ROOM. UPGRADED KITCHEN W/MAPLE CABINETRY, SS APPLIANCES. 2CAR+

8. 2012-05-31
   listed $187,000 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   A RARE FIND! DISCOVER THIS SPACIOUS & BRIGHT 3BEDROOM/2BATH TOWNHOME, BATHED IN NATURAL LIGHT AND OFFERING CAREFREE LIVING! THE HANDSOME LIVING ROOM FEATURES A BAY WINDOW, OPEN TO THE DINING ROOM. UPGRADED KITCHEN W/MAPLE CABINETRY, SS APPLIANCES. 2CAR+

9. 2007-05-15
   soldstatus $215,000 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   1YR FREE ASSOC. DUES. Brand-new model ready to move in. VALUE UPGRADES INCLUDE MAPLE KIT, DOORS AND TRIM THROUGHOUT, STAINLESS KIT APPL. & LIGHTING. Includes washer, dryer, central air & double gar. 3 BR/2 BA. BIG ROOMS, NATURAL LIGHT. Convenient location

10. 2007-05-11
    historical 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    1YR FREE ASSOC. DUES. Brand-new model ready to move in. VALUE UPGRADES INCLUDE MAPLE KIT, DOORS AND TRIM THROUGHOUT, STAINLESS KIT APPL. & LIGHTING. Includes washer, dryer, central air & double gar. 3 BR/2 BA. BIG ROOMS, NATURAL LIGHT. Convenient location

11. 2006-12-01
    listed $219,900 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    1YR FREE ASSOC. DUES. Brand-new model ready to move in. VALUE UPGRADES INCLUDE MAPLE KIT, DOORS AND TRIM THROUGHOUT, STAINLESS KIT APPL. & LIGHTING. Includes washer, dryer, central air & double gar. 3 BR/2 BA. BIG ROOMS, NATURAL LIGHT. Convenient location

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,002 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,002 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,002
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,405
• − Management: −$3,405
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $217
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$52
• After-tax cash flow: $4,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 19,630
• Household income: $76,406
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.83%
• Current HPI: 241.7112
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+36.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Coming Soon $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $170,450 Public Records
• 2012-11-15 Sold (MLS) $170,450 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-31 Listed $187,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-15 Sold (MLS) $215,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-01 Listed $219,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,002 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.