19690 N Highway 99 #162 · Lodi, CA 95220

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · Manufactured · 264 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $130k · 19% over ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the desirable all age Arbor Mobile Home Park! Come check out this 2 bedroom 2 bathroom home that was built in 1979. Updates include a brand new shingle roof, updated porch and new flooring. Both bathrooms have been updated as well. The exterior features a porch area, 1 car pull through garage, parking spots in front and a shed in the backyard for storage. There are plenty of things to enjoy in the community including a pool/spa, outdoor basketball court, walking trails and clubhouse. Easy access to Highway 99.

Key facts

• Porch area
• Shed in backyard
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• PORCH AREA
• SHED IN BACKYARD
• POOL SPA
• OUTDOOR BASKETBALL COURT
• WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Community clubhouse; Community pool and spa; Game court; Guest parking

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Triple wide
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Back yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range/cooktop; Built-in oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas range; Built-in oven; Gas water heater; Mirrored closet doors; Main entry
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $785 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.71%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,924
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19690 N Hwy 99 #110	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-4%)	2mo	$124,000	$81	86
19690 N Highway 99 #26	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-4%)	3mo	$140,000	$91	83
19690 N Highway 99 #55	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (+0%)	14mo	$176,000	$109	80
19690 N Hwy 99 #27	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-10%)	0mo	$130,000	$90	78
19690 N Highway 99 #7	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (+11%)	1mo	$105,000	$59	76
19690 N Highway 99 #24	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (+11%)	6mo	$198,000	$111	68
19690 N Hwy 99 #89	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,439 (-10%)	14mo	$100,000	$69	68
19690 Highway 99 #147	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-10%)	14mo	$110,000	$76	64
19690 N Highway 99 #170	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	23mo	$100,000	$69	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $24,937
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $86,265
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95220

• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $785

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Forrest Ave Lodi, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 264 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 263 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 262 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 261 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 255 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 254 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 253 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $155,000 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 248 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 247 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 246 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2026-04-21
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-10
    price $155,000
18. 2025-10-20
    price $165,000
19. 2025-09-19
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $7,396
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,775
• After-tax cash flow: $7,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 78,944
• Population (ZIP): 7,958

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 22% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.06%
• Current HPI: 334.006
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-21 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $155,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $165,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-19 Listed $175,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR