2430 N School Hse Gap Rd · Gatlinburg, TN 37876

$369,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2003 0.34 ac lot $331/sqft · 30% below area Est $527k · 30% under $28/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable cabin nestled in the desirable Sky Harbor community. The open-concept living and kitchen area features gleaming pine wood floors, a cozy stone fireplace, and easy access to the covered back porch--perfect for relaxing and enjoying the mountain setting. The main level offers a KING SIZE suite, while upstairs is designed as a game room with an additional bed and half bath, providing flexible space for guests. A washer and dryer are conveniently located in the upstairs closet. Enjoy close proximity to all Pigeon Forge attractions, along with level parking and paved roads all the way to the cabin.

Key facts

• Cozy stone fireplace
• Level parking
• Paved roads

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• COZY STONE FIREPLACE
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• GAME ROOM
• LEVEL PARKING
• PAVED ROADS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (48.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (59.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (59.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 1.3% in Gatlinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#27 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($347k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $369k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,019 (59.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.79%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 20.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $526,814
• List price: $369,000
• Delta: -29.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1723 Rose Pass	0.09mi	1/1.5	1,094 (-2%)	8mo	$399,000	$365	84
2435 Cedar Pass	0.24mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+0%)	6mo	$621,095	$555	78
2310 Raymond Hollow Rd	0.29mi	1/1.0	1,075 (-4%)	6mo	$401,000	$373	71
1925 Beach Front Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-7%)	3mo	$335,000	$322	67
1705 Jacks Pass	0.51mi	1/1.0	1,156 (+4%)	1mo	$410,000	$355	65
1541 Ski View Ln Ln	0.48mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,154 (+4%)	2mo	$262,000	$227	65
1628 Ginnys Trl	0.17mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+11%)	4mo	$460,000	$371	65
1504 Ginnys Trl	0.34mi	1/2.0	1,200 (+8%)	10mo	$515,000	$429	63
2032 Beach Front Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,229 (+10%)	10mo	$490,000	$399	57
2217 Red Bud Rd	0.60mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+12%)	9mo	$510,000	$409	40
1523 Sky View Dr	0.69mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (-10%)	10mo	$385,000	$382	37
1523 Sky View Dr Dr	0.69mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (-10%)	10mo	$385,000	$382	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $131,748
• Equity at exit: $332,424

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $430,545
• Equity at exit: $716,886

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37876

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 1127
• Price-to-rent: 20.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $997/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-1,015

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,785

Max offer price $189,738

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $369,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $369,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $369,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $389,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-03-24
    listed $399,000 Active 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Adorable cabin nestled in the desirable Sky Harbor community. The open-concept living and kitchen area features gleaming pine wood floors, a cozy stone fireplace, and easy access to the covered back porch--perfect for relaxing and enjoying the mountain setting. The main level offers a KING SIZE suite, while upstairs is designed as a game room with an additional bed and half bath, providing flexible space for guests. A washer and dryer are conveniently located in the upstairs closet. Enjoy close proximity to all Pigeon Forge attractions, along with level parking and paved roads all the way to the cabin.

17. 2026-03-24
    listed $399,000 Active 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Adorable cabin nestled in the desirable Sky Harbor community. The open-concept living and kitchen area features gleaming pine wood floors, a cozy stone fireplace, and easy access to the covered back porch--perfect for relaxing and enjoying the mountain setting. The main level offers a KING SIZE suite, while upstairs is designed as a game room with an additional bed and half bath, providing flexible space for guests. A washer and dryer are conveniently located in the upstairs closet. Enjoy close proximity to all Pigeon Forge attractions, along with level parking and paved roads all the way to the cabin.

18. 2012-03-23
    soldstatus $120,500
19. 2011-03-18
    listed $129,900
20. 2003-06-10
    soldstatus $18,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $997 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,620 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,623/yr (+$135/mo · 162.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$997
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$19,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,670
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,507/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Gatlinburg

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #5524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sevier County · 80,402 people
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,561
• Household income: $58,277
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.06%
• Current HPI: 477.19
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+2028.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $399,000 GSMAR
• 2026-03-24 Listed $399,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2012-03-23 Sold (MLS) $120,500 GSMAR
• 2011-03-18 Listed $129,900 GSMAR
• 2003-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $18,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $997 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.