312 Lucaya Loop · Four Corners, FL 33897

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · Condo public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2003 $569/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Step into your own slice of paradise at 312 Lucaya Loop, a beautifully appointed, second-floor sanctuary within the prestigious Bahama Bay Resort. This fully furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom retreat is designed for effortless living, whether you are seeking a high-performing investment property or a personal tropical getaway. The open-concept interior flows seamlessly to your private balcony, offering the perfect spot to unwind after a day of Florida sunshine. With every piece of furniture and decor already in place, this turn-key residence is ready to welcome guests or serve as your immediate home base in the heart of Central Florida. Beyond your front door, the resort lifestyle beckons wit

Key facts

• Premier golf courses
• Private balcony
• Poolside bar

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• MULTIPLE SPARKLING POOLS
• ON-SITE RESTAURANT
• POOLSIDE BAR
• MINUTES FROM DISNEY WORLD
• PREMIER GOLF COURSES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Unit number on file; Third-party management/representation indicated
• Financial info: Total annual association fees: $6,828.24; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $569.02 (covers 24-hour guard, cable TV, internet, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water, and other services); Association name: Vacasa / Lynne Bishop; Association fees are required; Community amenities include fitness center, playground, pool, and sidewalks; Pets allowed with limits (max weight ~25 lbs)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; Second-floor unit; Faces north; One level (inside unit); 3 total stories in building
• Construction: Shingle roof; Other construction materials; Slab foundation; Built as part of a multi-unit building (building number 5)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Building has elevator
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-212/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (1.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $131 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-975 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $130k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-16,045
• Equity at exit: $41,645

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,418
• Equity at exit: $46,363

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33897

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,206/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$569
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $156,885

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $28	+0% $-18	+5% $-63	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-182	-5% $-100	+0% $-18	+5% $64	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $23	base $-18	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
226 Hillcrest Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1488	$2,500	$1.68	24d	1	0.06mi
304 New Providence Promenade Unit 304 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,495	$1.22	24d	1	0.15mi
603 New Providence Promenade #603 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,550	$1.26	24d	1	0.22mi
515 Corso Ln Davenport, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1402	$2,495	$1.78	4d	13	0.26mi
309 Catfish Dr E Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,895	$1.30	24d	1	0.52mi
1301 Tuscan Hills Blvd Unit 9406 1 Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,200	$1.94	24d	1	0.53mi
50989 Highway 27 #108 Davenport, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	22d	1	0.59mi
774 Chelsea Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	988	$1,750	$1.77	24d	1	0.63mi
807 Chelsea Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1076	$1,450	$1.35	24d	1	0.67mi
183 Ashbourne Way Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,200	$2.12	4d	35	0.68mi
222 Bexley Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1313	$2,000	$1.52	24d	1	0.72mi
2010 Limetta DR Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,429	$2.06	4d	15	0.77mi
315 Allison Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,400	$2.03	24d	1	0.81mi
1492 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,950	$1.36	15d	1	0.89mi
1492 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,995	$1.39	24d	1	0.89mi
1556 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,950	$1.42	4d	1	0.90mi
237 Somerset Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	1.0	1330	$1,900	$1.43	24d	1	0.90mi
904 Charo Pkwy #533 Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1437	$1,795	$1.25	15d	1	1.00mi
904 Charo Pkwy #517 Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	24d	1	1.00mi
1316 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1489	$2,050	$1.38	24d	1	1.05mi
631 Washington Palm Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1387	$1,450	$1.05	24d	1	1.08mi
9055 Treasure Trove Ln Kissimmee, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1572	$1,900	$1.21	4d	2	1.13mi
9055 Treasure Trove Ln Kissimmee, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1572	$1,900	$1.21	5d	2	1.13mi
333 Terra Lago St Unit 1031923P Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1453	$2,170	$1.49	3d	1	1.14mi
217 Australian Way Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,750	$1.45	3d	1	1.25mi
400 Australian Way Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,600	$1.19	15d	1	1.25mi
1042 Calabria Ave Unit 1261192P Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1485	$5,169	$3.48	15d	1	1.25mi
3050 Pirates Retreat Ct #208 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1445	$1,600	$1.11	2d	1	1.25mi
2929 Fan Palm Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1090	$1,600	$1.47	15d	1	1.25mi
2929 Fan Palm Dr Unit 1 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1090	$1,600	$1.47	15d	1	1.25mi
623 Coconut Palm Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	24d	1	1.26mi
2918 Fan Palm Dr Unit Main Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	24d	1	1.28mi
761 Caribbean Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	4d	1	1.29mi
3060 Pirates Retreat Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1445	$1,875	$1.30	8d	2	1.29mi
564 Orchid Dr Unit A Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	1348	$1,500	$1.11	24d	1	1.30mi
711 Caribbean Dr Unit Main Unit Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	24d	1	1.31mi
515 Orchid Dr Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,650	$1.22	24d	1	1.32mi
536 Caribbean Dr Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,650	$1.16	24d	1	1.35mi
402 Orchid Dr Unit Main Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	24d	1	1.35mi
161 Coco Plum Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1364	$1,850	$1.36	24d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $569 · $6,828/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    price $160,000
16. 2026-03-12
    listed $170,000 Active
17. 2007-10-17
    soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,206 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,206 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,206
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − HOA: −$6,828
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$603
• After-tax cash flow: $392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Four Corners

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #8218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Four Corners, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,159
• Household income: $70,982
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 926.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 21% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2905
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.69%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+23.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,206 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.