444 Mcdowell Park Cir · Jackson, MS 39204

$47,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,155 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1959 0.26 ac lot $41/sqft · 13% below area Est $61k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your cleaning crew, favorite paint colors and a handyman! Situated on a spacious lot with mature trees, this single-story home offers a functional floor plan with three bedrooms one full bath and a half bath. The exterior features easily maintained siding and a large backyard perfect for outdoor activities or future landscaping opportunities. Inside, you'll find generous natural light throughout, with wood-style laminate flooring extending across the main living areas. The kitchen includes upper and lower cabinetry, a freestanding range, and refrigerator, with space for casual dining. Each bedroom offers closet storage, and the bathroom includes a tub/shower combo. With loads of potential, this home presents an ideal canvas for customization or investment.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Spacious lot
• Mature trees

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• MATURE TREES
• LARGE BACKYARD
• GENEROUS NATURAL LIGHT
• WOOD-STYLE LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPPER AND LOWER CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,199/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1099% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($331 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,589 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.72%
• DSCR: 3.30
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,520
• List price: $47,900
• Delta: -20.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2716 Woodside Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,184 (+2%)	0mo	$54,900	$46	79
2920 Lakewood Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,125 (-3%)	1mo	$69,900	$62	75
1539 Woodburn St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,043 (-10%)	5mo	$90,000	$86	66
1319 Dorgan St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,131 (-2%)	1mo	$65,000	$57	64
1340 Woody Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,208 (+5%)	1mo	$59,900	$50	62
2612 Emerald Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-3%)	6mo	$55,000	$49	53
1776 Wood Glen Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,309 (+13%)	5mo	$39,900	$30	50
1219 Woody Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,058 (-8%)	5mo	$67,000	$63	48
2842 Teresa Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-13%)	2mo	$35,000	$35	47
2877 Teresa Dr	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,006 (-13%)	4mo	$105,000	$104	46
1928 Teakwood Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,299 (+12%)	3mo	$68,000	$52	41
1907 Bienville Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+13%)	4mo	$69,000	$53	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $69,283
• Equity at exit: $43,152

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.9%
• Equity multiple: 15.23×
• Total profit: $190,852
• Equity at exit: $93,059

Cash invested: $13,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39204

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,199 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$251
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,175/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $467

Max offer price $47,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $605	-5% $592	+0% $578	+5% $565	+10% $551
Rent	-10% $483	-5% $531	+0% $578	+5% $625	+10% $673
Rate	-1.0pp $602	-0.5pp $590	base $578	+0.5pp $566	+1.0pp $553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,975
• Closing costs: $1,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
427 McDowell Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1308	$1,200	$0.92	14d	1	0.07mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	14d	1	0.32mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	24d	1	0.32mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	14d	1	0.50mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	44d	1	0.50mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	14d	1	0.51mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	44d	1	0.51mi
3049 Lakewood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$975	$0.81	44d	1	0.54mi
2873 Teresa Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	0.59mi
3122 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,100	$0.77	44d	1	0.66mi
1219 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1058	$1,150	$1.09	24d	1	0.67mi
1223 Marydale Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1300	$950	$0.73	44d	1	0.69mi
3162 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,236	$0.97	44d	1	0.74mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	14d	1	0.74mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	24d	1	0.74mi
3151 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,306	$0.89	14d	1	0.80mi
1533 Raymond Rd Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1135	$1,010	$0.89	44d	1	0.80mi
3308 Ramona St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,150	$1.04	22d	1	0.92mi
2786 Brookwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.97mi
1805 Hospital Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,050	$0.79	14d	1	1.00mi
3152 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	14d	1	1.02mi
1010 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,050	$0.92	14d	1	1.08mi
2858 Fairhill Dr Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	900	$825	$0.92	44d	1	1.09mi
1018 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1056	$900	$0.85	24d	1	1.09mi
843 Reaves St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,084	$0.77	44d	1	1.09mi
5136 Lurline Dr Unit Ma Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1134	$1,100	$0.97	14d	1	1.14mi
1054 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1132	$1,050	$0.93	14d	1	1.14mi
3341 Suncrest Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	1.0	1292	$1,225	$0.95	44d	1	1.20mi
422 Cooper Rd Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1049	$1,426	$1.36	24d	1	1.37mi
3511 Sykes Park Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,426	$1.16	14d	1	1.38mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	14d	1	1.42mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	44d	1	1.42mi
103 Sykes Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	1.48mi
267 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1165	$1,100	$0.94	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $47,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $47,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $47,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $47,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $47,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $47,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $47,900 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $47,900 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $47,900 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $47,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $47,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $47,900 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $47,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $47,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,900 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $47,900 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-02-18
    listed $47,900 Active 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Bring your cleaning crew, favorite paint colors and a handyman! Situated on a spacious lot with mature trees, this single-story home offers a functional floor plan with three bedrooms one full bath and a half bath. The exterior features easily maintained siding and a large backyard perfect for outdoor activities or future landscaping opportunities. Inside, you'll find generous natural light throughout, with wood-style laminate flooring extending across the main living areas. The kitchen includes upper and lower cabinetry, a freestanding range, and refrigerator, with space for casual dining. Each bedroom offers closet storage, and the bathroom includes a tub/shower combo. With loads of potential, this home presents an ideal canvas for customization or investment.

18. 2026-01-21
    historical
19. 2026-01-05
    price $49,900
20. 2025-11-16
    price $54,900
21. 2025-10-21
    listed $64,900 Active
22. 2021-10-02
    historical
23. 2021-10-02
    historical
24. 2011-05-11
    soldstatus
25. 2009-11-06
    listed $45,000
26. 2008-08-23
    listed $27,000
27. 2001-03-16
    soldstatus
28. 1970-08-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,175 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,175 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,683
• − Property taxes: −$1,175
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,151
• − Management: −$1,151
• − Depreciation: −$1,393
• Taxable income: $6,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,583
• After-tax cash flow: $5,354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 13,249
• Household income: $30,237
• Rent vs Own: 66.3% rent · 33.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1099.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.25%
• Current HPI: 233.9061
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.56%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+77.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $47,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-21 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $49,900 MLSU
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $54,900 MLSU
• 2025-10-21 Listed $64,900 MLSU
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2011-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-11-06 Listed $45,000 MLSU
• 2008-08-23 Listed $27,000 MLSU
• 2001-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1970-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,175 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.