131 Red Creek Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$1,190,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 3,526 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1991 1.18 ac lot Est $1809k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a peaceful and private setting, 131 Red Creek Road in Hampton Bays offers a blend of Hamptons charm and modern comfort. Surrounded by natural beauty and just moments from bay beaches, this inviting home is ideal as a year-round residence or seasonal retreat. The property features a bright and airy layout with sun-filled living spaces, an open-concept design, and seamless indoor-outdoor flow. A well-appointed kitchen anchors the home, while spacious bedrooms offer comfort and versatility. The expansive open living areas invite you to envision your own lifestyle and design aesthetic — whether your taste leans toward sleek Hamptons modern, relaxed country eclectic chic, or a t

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Indoor-outdoor flow
• Generous yard

Tags

• PRIVATE SETTING
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• INDOOR-OUTDOOR FLOW
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE OPEN LIVING AREAS
• GENEROUS YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Cedar exterior; Full attic
• Exterior features: Cedar construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric oven; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning; One fireplace
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings and high ceilings; Open floorplan with an open kitchen; Full attic

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.19M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $722 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.07M (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.07M (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phillips Avenue School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 578 students, 50% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,654/mo this rent would consume 95% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.17M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $1.19M implies a 668% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,065,378 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.60%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,808,838
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Wood View Way	0.32mi	4/4.0	3,500 (-1%)	12mo	$1,795,000	$513	62
12 Douglas Ct	0.55mi	4/3.0	3,424 (-3%)	5mo	$1,207,000	$353	58
5 Hildreth Rd S	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,000 (-15%)	10mo	$2,000,000	$667	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-90,727
• Equity at exit: $177,433

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $235,774
• Equity at exit: $102,889

Cash invested: $333,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,240
• Tax from tax record: −$958 /mo · $11,502/yr
• Insurance: −$496
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,237
• Net cashflow: $722

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,740

Max offer price $1,190,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $297,500
• Closing costs: $35,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Duckwood Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	4.5	2700	$12,500	$4.63	44d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,190,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,190,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,190,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,190,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,190,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,190,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,190,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,190,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,190,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,190,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,190,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,190,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,190,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,502 · $958/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,806 · $1,317/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,305/yr (+$359/mo · 37.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $127,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,659
• − Property taxes: −$11,502
• − Insurance: −$5,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,228
• − Management: −$10,228
• − Depreciation: −$34,618
• Taxable loss: −$11,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,721
• After-tax cash flow: $11,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+720.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $1,190,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-29 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-22 Listed $1,350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 1991-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $11,502 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.