2304 Avalon Ave · Baltimore, MD 21217

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,398 sqft · Townhouse public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1940 $29/sqft · 48% below area Est $71k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large light filled home walking distance to Druid Hill Park, Mondawmin Mall and Coppin State University. Owner is a Contractor and may rehab it if hired by the new owner.

Key facts

• Light filled home
• Built 1940
• Listed 99 days

Tags

• LIGHT FILLED HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $959 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.1% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,687/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 2921% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.76%
• DSCR: 5.57
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,036
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -43.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2311 Orem Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,284 (-8%)	4mo	$35,000	$27	78
2818 Woodbrook Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,232 (-12%)	3mo	$45,500	$37	73
2453 Mcculloh St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,460 (+4%)	3mo	$99,900	$68	73
2820 Woodbrook Ave	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,232 (-12%)	2mo	$85,000	$69	72
1719 Baker St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (+0%)	2mo	$19,250	$14	65
2105 Whittier Ave	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,587 (+14%)	1mo	$80,000	$50	64
2115 Mcculloh St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,350 (-3%)	4mo	$77,000	$57	58
2521 Reisterstown Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+13%)	3mo	$215,000	$136	57
700 Cumberland St	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (-8%)	3mo	$107,800	$84	52
1722 N Bentalou St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+4%)	3mo	$245,000	$169	50
2009 Ruxton Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$234,000	$146	39
1537 N Smallwood St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-14%)	3mo	$56,000	$47	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $61,073
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.32×
• Total profit: $160,422
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21217

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,766/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $959

Break-even live

Break-even rent $473

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $982	-5% $970	+0% $959	+5% $948	+10% $936
Rent	-10% $826	-5% $892	+0% $959	+5% $1,026	+10% $1,092
Rate	-1.0pp $979	-0.5pp $969	base $959	+0.5pp $949	+1.0pp $938

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2231 Orem Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1140	$1,750	$1.54	18d	1	0.15mi
2301 Whittier Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	0.17mi
2301 Whittier Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,650	$1.49	44d	1	0.17mi
2301 Whittier Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	0.17mi
2201 Whittier Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	18d	1	0.19mi
2201 Whittier Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	44d	1	0.19mi
2505 Woodbrook Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1256	$1,745	$1.39	3d	1	0.20mi
2636 Pennsylvania Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	846	$956	$1.13	25d	4	0.22mi
1507 Retreat St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1098	$2,500	$2.28	44d	1	0.23mi
1515 Retreat St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,800	$1.64	25d	1	0.24mi
2330 Bryant Ave Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	21d	1	0.24mi
2614 Pennsylvania Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,141	$1.16	5d	4	0.25mi
2449 Druid Hill Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	44d	1	0.32mi
3401 Woodbrook Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,199	$1.33	25d	1	0.34mi
2409 Francis St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1298	$1,500	$1.16	44d	1	0.34mi
2433 Druid Hill Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1092	$1,999	$1.83	44d	1	0.34mi
2511 Madison Ave #2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	44d	1	0.34mi
1624 Westwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	44d	1	0.40mi
1930 N Payson St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	25d	1	0.41mi
1806 N Mount St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	21d	1	0.41mi
1121 Whitelock St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,300	$1.10	44d	1	0.41mi
1729 N Fulton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,795	$1.66	44d	1	0.45mi
519 Sanford Pl Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	17d	1	0.47mi
1205 Clendenin St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1560	$800	$0.51	25d	1	0.47mi
1722 N Monroe St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	25d	1	0.49mi
2204 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	5d	1	0.50mi
2339 Eutaw Pl Ste 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,275	$0.98	44d	1	0.51mi
1614 N Calhoun St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	44d	1	0.55mi
1616 N Fulton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,795	$1.11	5d	1	0.55mi
810 Brooks Ln Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	21d	1	0.56mi
2143 Druid Hill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	915	$1,400	$1.53	44d	1	0.59mi
2401 Brookfield Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$1,675	$1.52	25d	3	0.61mi
2407 Brookfield Ave Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	44d	1	0.61mi
1534 N Stricker St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	900	$1,475	$1.64	15d	1	0.61mi
1516 N Mount St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1830	$1,750	$0.96	15d	1	0.62mi
2202 Brookfield Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	980	$1,600	$1.63	44d	1	0.63mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	25d	1	0.65mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	12d	1	0.65mi
2402 Lakeview Ave Apt 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	13d	1	0.65mi
823 Newington Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	913	$1,700	$1.86	18d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $40,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $48,000 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Large light filled home walking distance to Druid Hill Park, Mondawmin Mall and Coppin State University. Owner is a Contractor and may rehab it if hired by the new owner.

16. 2026-03-13
    listed $49,000 Active 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Large light filled home walking distance to Druid Hill Park, Mondawmin Mall and Coppin State University. Owner is a Contractor and may rehab it if hired by the new owner.

17. 2026-02-25
    historical
18. 2026-02-09
    price $49,000
19. 2025-12-02
    listed $59,999 Active
20. 1991-01-28
    soldstatus $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,766 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,766 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,766
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,619
• − Management: −$1,619
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $11,634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,792
• After-tax cash flow: $8,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,792
• Household income: $38,409
• Rent vs Own: 70.0% rent · 30.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 12% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Hispanic 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.20%
• Current HPI: 104.2102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+47.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $48,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $49,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $49,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $59,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 1991-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,766 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.